A Case for CAD 3.53 (X35) before the end of 2028

Abcourt Mines Inc. is a Canadian gold exploration and development company focused on properties in northwestern Quebec. Its primary assets include the Elder Mine (under care and maintenance since August 2022), the Sleeping Giant Mine (restarted development in 2023 with recent drilling campaigns), and the Tagami property (adjacent to Elder). The company also holds silver-zinc assets like Abcourt-Barvue, this forecast prioritizes gold production potential while noting silver upside.

Key data from recent reports:

• Elder Mine Resources (2018 NI 43-101): Measured and Indicated (M&I) ~260,000 tonnes at ~8.5 g/t Au (contained ~71,000 oz Au); Inferred ~100,000 tonnes at ~7.5 g/t Au (contained ~24,000 oz Au).
• Tagami Property Resources (2018 NI 43-101): M&I ~120,000 tonnes at ~6.0 g/t Au (contained ~23,000 oz Au); Inferred ~50,000 tonnes at ~5.5 g/t Au (contained ~9,000 oz Au).
• Sleeping Giant Reserves (2019 Feasibility Study): Proven and Probable ~486,000 tonnes at ~11.2 g/t Au (contained ~175,000 oz Au recoverable at 90% recovery).
• Historical production: Elder targeted 150,000 tpa (12,500 tpm); Sleeping Giant mill capacity 700-750 tpd (~220,000 tpa).
• Current status: Elder on care/maintenance; Sleeping Giant mill restarted in late 2023 for third-party/toll milling, with underground development ongoing. Recent financing (e.g., Nebari loan) supports ramp-up. Q2 2025 results show improved working capital but ongoing losses from development.

The company is pre-commercial production at scale, with ~$3M cash as of late 2020 (updated filings suggest ~$5-7M CAD in 2025 amid bull market financing). Stock price ~0.05 CAD (market cap ~$15M CAD).Assumptions for 5-Year Forecast (2025-2030)

• Gold Price: Fixed at USD 5,000/oz as specified (bull market assumption; current spot ~USD 3,789/oz, implying strong upside).
• Exchange Rate: USD/CAD = 1.35 (based on current ~1.36, adjusted for bull commodity cycle strengthening CAD slightly).
• Thus, Gold Price in CAD: 5,000 * 1.35 = CAD 6,750/oz.
• Silver Price: Bull market assumption of USD 100/oz (current ~USD 32/oz; CAD 135/oz).
• Real Discount Rate: 8%
• Production Ramp-Up: Conservative due to development stage. Sleeping Giant restarts full underground production in 2026 (post-drilling/PFS updates). Elder restarts 2027. Combined peak ~200,000 tpa by 2028.
  • Grades: Sleeping Giant 11.0 g/t Au; Elder/Tagami blended 7.5 g/t Au.
  • Recovery: 90% (mill efficiency).
  • AISC: CAD 1,800/oz (escalating 2%/yr from current ~CAD 1,500/oz industry avg for Quebec juniors, adjusted for bull market efficiencies).
• Capex: Initial CAD 40M for Sleeping Giant ramp-up (2025-2026; based on historical estimates); CAD 20M for Elder restart (2027). Total undiscounted capex ~CAD 60M.
• Opex: Mining CAD 120/t; Milling CAD 40/t; G&A CAD 5M/yr.
• Taxes: 27% corporate rate (Quebec); no carry-forward losses assumed for simplicity.
• Life of Mine: Limited to 5 years for forecast (total recoverable ~800,000 oz Au over period, drawing ~50% of reserves/resources).
• Bull Market Adjustments: 10% resource expansion via drilling (e.g., recent Sleeping Giant deep extensions); lower AISC by 5% due to high prices.

Cash flows are after-tax, in CAD millions. Forecast uses DCF model for NPV.5-Year Cash Flow Forecast

Notes:

• Revenue = (Au oz * recovery * price) + minor Ag credits (~5% uplift from bull silver).
• EBITDA = Revenue - Opex (excludes depreciation/amortization for simplicity; ~CAD 100M cumulative).
• FCF = EBITDA - Taxes - Capex.
• Cumulative recoverable Au: ~500 koz (conservative; bull market could add 50-100 koz via expansions).

NPV Calculation

NPV is the present value of FCF discounted at 8% real rate, starting from end-2025 (current date Sep 2025).To arrive at NPV:

1. Calculate PV of each FCF: FCF_t / (1 + 0.08)^t, where t = years from now (t=0.25 for 2025, but approximated as t=1 for annual end-period).
2. Sum PVs:
   • 2025: 15 / 1.08 ≈ 13.9
   • 2026: 126 / 1.08² ≈ 108.0
   • 2027: 240 / 1.08³ ≈ 190.3
   • 2028: 383 / 1.08⁴ ≈ 282.1
   • 2029: 380 / 1.08⁵ ≈ 257.7
   • 2030: 376 / 1.08⁶ ≈ 235.4
3. Total NPV = CAD 1,087 M.

NAV Calculation

NAV (Net Asset Value) = NPV of mineral assets + non-core assets - liabilities.

• Mineral Assets NPV: CAD 1,087 M (above).
• Non-Core: CAD 10 M (cash, equipment, minor Ag reserves at Abcourt-Barvue valued at USD 100/oz Ag).
• Liabilities: CAD 20 M (debt from recent financings).
• NAV = 1,087 + 10 - 20 = CAD 1,077 M.
• Per Share NAV: ~CAD 3.50 (based on ~308M shares outstanding).

NPV vs. NAV Comparison

Interpretation: At USD 5,000/oz gold, Abcourt's projects generate substantial value in a bull market, with NPV reflecting operational cash flows and NAV incorporating balance sheet items. The high upside assumes successful ramp-up; risks include delays, grade variability, and permitting. NAV is slightly lower due to debt offset. This is a base-case forecast—bull market expansions could boost by 20-30%.

Conclusion:

Abcourt has just restarted a its first mine this month (first gold pour last week in Quebec), they will demonstrate returns from initial production for the first time in Q1 2026 (first catalyst). Ramping up to 30Kozs per year in 18 months (that's 45% capacity of the mill). The mill has potential for 70kozs but they intend to expand it.

Abcourt CEO stated "We will be looking at doing share buybacks in the future not dividends or rollbacks."

So, they've reached first pour, are being re-rated as of me writing this (look at the share price) and that re-rating will continue into 2026. This is a safe bet in my opinion and one to hold through this bull cycle, a X10 in my opinion that I will purchase when I have free cash.

Happy hunting gold and silver bulls!