Pulling back 6.8% this week, OneMain Holdings' NYSE:OMF) five-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But OneMain Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:OMF) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 23% over five years, which is below the market return. But if you include dividends then the return is market-beating. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 6.0%.

In light of the stock dropping 6.8% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for OneMain Holdings

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, OneMain Holdings actually saw its EPS drop 3.9% per year.

Since EPS is down a bit, and the share price is up, it's probably that the market previously had some concerns about the company, but the reality has been better than feared. Having said that, if the EPS falls continue we'd be surprised to see a sustained increase in share price.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on OneMain Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of OneMain Holdings, it has a TSR of 125% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

OneMain Holdings shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 18% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - OneMain Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.