Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGM:JFIN using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Jiayin Group is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Jiayin Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Jiayin Group's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Jiayin Group's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Jiayin Group has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Consumer Finance industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Jiayin Group's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Jiayin Group's earnings growth to the United States of America market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Jiayin Group's revenue growth to the United States of America market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Jiayin Group is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Jiayin Group is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Jiayin Group's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Dinggui Yan is the Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Jiayin Group Inc. Mr. Yan has been the Chairman and General Manager of Shanghai Jiayin Finance Technology Co., Ltd. since September 2015 and October 2016 respectively. Mr. Yan has been Executive Deputy Chairman at China Smartpay Group Holdings Limited since September 15, 2017. He serves as General Manager and Executive Director of Shanghai Niwodai Internet Financial Information Service Limited. He served as the Manager of the production department of Nanjing Tongchuang Information Industry Group from May 1993 to July 1995 and served as its Deputy General Manager of the Beijing Marketing Area from July 1995 to December 1997. From January 1998 to December 1999, he served as the deputy director of Nanjing Tongchuang Information Industry Group Shanghai preparatory office. From January 2000 to December 2006, he served as General Manager of Shanghai Tongtian Information Technology Co., Ltd. From March 2007 to December 2010, he served as the General Manager of the Zhejiang Region. Mr. Yan received a master’s degree from China Europe International Business School in 2016 and a bachelor’s degree from Xidian University in 1990.
Insufficient data for Dinggui to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Dinggui to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Jiayin Group management team is about average.
Chief Financial Officer
Chief Technology Officer
Chief Risk Officer
Vice President of Finance
Board of Directors
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
No 3 month individual insider trading information.
Jiayin Group Inc. operates as an online individual finance marketplace that connects individual investors and individual borrowers in China. It operates a secure and open platform that facilitates transparent, secure, and fast connections between investors and borrowers. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
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