Optimism for Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG) has grown this past week, despite five-year decline in earnings

The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) shareholders might understandably be very concerned that the share price has dropped 30% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. Unfortunately its return of 76% is below the market return of 107%.

Since the stock has added US$1.2b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, Carlyle Group became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Carlyle Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Carlyle Group, it has a TSR of 108% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Carlyle Group shareholders are down 13% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 16% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Carlyle Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Carlyle Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

But note: Carlyle Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.