Carlyle Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
Carlyle Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -36.4%, while the Capital Markets industry saw earnings growing at 5.8% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 16.2% per year. Carlyle Group's return on equity is 8.7%, and it has net margins of 16.8%.
Key information
-36.38%
Earnings growth rate
-36.74%
EPS growth rate
| Capital Markets Industry Growth | 10.26% |
| Revenue growth rate | -16.22% |
| Return on equity | 8.74% |
| Net Margin | 16.82% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 22
CG: Acquisitions And New Fundraising Will Shape A Balanced Forward Outlook
Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Carlyle Group to $45.16 from $45.24. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update • Jun 07
CG: Defense Energy And Data Fundraising Super Cycle Will Support Upside
Analysts have reduced their price target on Carlyle Group to $75 from $81, reflecting updated assumptions that include a higher discount rate, revised revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz outlined expectations for a fundraising "super cycle" centered on defense, energy, and data protection themes, citing growing government reliance on private capital to address deficits and national security priorities.Seeking Alpha • May 31
The Carlyle Group: Undervalued Given Limited Private Credit Exposure
Summary Carlyle Group is undervalued due to overstated private credit concerns, despite limited direct lending exposure. Management targets $200B in new assets and >$6/share earnings, but guidance is ambitious; even $185B in inflows would be strong. CG’s balance sheet is robust with ~$5B net cash/investments, a secure 3.1% dividend yield, and ongoing buybacks. I maintain a buy rating, seeing 11x earnings as compelling and fair value in the mid-$60s as fundraising accelerates. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 24
CG: Data Centers And Buybacks Will Shape A Balanced Forward Outlook
The latest analyst price target for Carlyle Group has shifted from $48.00 to $45.24. Analysts attribute the change to updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, a slightly different profit margin outlook, a modestly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the revision.Analysis Article • May 20
Analysts Are More Bearish On The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) Than They Used To Be
One thing we could say about the analysts on The Carlyle Group Inc. ( NASDAQ:CG ) - they aren't optimistic, having just...
Narrative Update • May 06
CG: Expanded Partnerships And Data Center Projects Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Carlyle Group to about $61.81 from $66.94, citing revised assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly higher future P/E multiple as the key drivers of the update. What's in the News Carlyle and SEI announced an expanded partnership aimed at widening access to institutional private market capabilities across wealth and retirement channels, including potential new collaborative solutions and model portfolios for private market exposure (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 20
CG: Data Center Projects And Buybacks Will Support A Balanced Outlook
Analysts now set a lower price target for Carlyle Group at $48.00, down from about $55.27, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News US Army selects Carlyle and KKR to build two data centres on military bases, each estimated to cost about US$2b, with long term leases and capacity partly reserved for Army use.Narrative Update • Apr 06
CG: Future Data Centre Projects And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Carlyle Group from $75.00 to $81.00. They cited updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E ratio as the key drivers behind the higher price target.Narrative Update • Mar 23
CG: Ongoing Buybacks And Selective Dealmaking Will Support Future Upside
The analyst price target for Carlyle Group has shifted modestly to $66.94 from $66.27, as analysts factor in updated assumptions that include a slightly different discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations, a marginally higher profit margin, and a small change in the future P/E input. What's in the News Carlyle Group announced a share repurchase program that allows the company to buy back up to US$2.0b of its common shares, signaling an ongoing focus on returning capital to shareholders (Buyback Transaction Announcements).Narrative Update • Mar 09
CG: Buybacks And Potential Sports Deal Will Support Bullish Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Carlyle Group to $55.27 from $53.95, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Carlyle Group announced a share repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to US$2.0b of its common shares.Narrative Update • Feb 22
CG: Future Sports And Healthtech Deals Will Test Fairly Priced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Carlyle Group to $53.95 from $54.60, reflecting updated assumptions around higher expected revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, a marginally higher discount rate, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle is among private equity firms evaluating the acquisition of EQT Partners' 40% stake in healthtech firm CitiusTech in a potential deal likely around US$1b, with JP Morgan running the sale process and no bids placed yet (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 08
CG: Future Sports And Energy Deals Will Test Fairly Priced Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Carlyle Group to US$54.60 from US$53.74, reflecting updated assumptions that include a lower discount rate, a revised revenue growth outlook, a higher projected profit margin, and a slightly adjusted future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle is reported to be evaluating non binding bids for a potential stake in Indian Premier League team Royal Challengers Bengaluru, alongside other global buyout firms and large investors, in a process that could value the franchise between US$1.4b and US$1.8b (media reports).Narrative Update • Jan 24
CG: Future Sanctioned Asset Pursuit Will Undermine Already Stretched Pricing
Analysts have nudged their price target for Carlyle Group slightly higher to about US$53.74 from roughly US$53.00, citing modest adjustments in assumed revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate and future P/E as the drivers behind the change. What's in the News Global private equity firms, including The Carlyle Group Inc., are evaluating non binding bids for a stake in Indian Premier League team Royal Challengers Bengaluru, with reported potential valuation in the US$1.4b to US$1.8b range (M&A Rumors and Discussions).Narrative Update • Jan 10
CG: Future Sanctioned Asset Pursuit Will Undermine Already Stretched Pricing
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Carlyle Group from $56.00 to $53.00, citing updated assumptions that include a higher discount rate, a change from a 2.59% revenue contraction to 24.74% growth, a profit margin increase from 31.92% to 36.02%, and a lower future P/E expectation from 16.76 to 11.09. What's in the News Carlyle is reported to be interested in the foreign assets of PJSC LUKOIL, a Russian oil company under U.S. sanctions, and is considering seeking a U.S. licence to talk about a potential deal, with no due diligence conducted so far and no assurance the discussions will move ahead (Financial Times via SeeNews).Narrative Update • Dec 26
CG: Overseas Energy Bid And Ongoing Buybacks Will Shape Measured Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Carlyle Group by approximately 1 percent to reflect a higher estimated fair value of around 66 dollars, supported by expectations for stronger profit margins and a lower future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Carlyle Group is exploring a potential bid for the foreign assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil and may seek a U.S. licence to hold negotiations, although no due diligence has been conducted and the firm may decide not to proceed (Financial Times via SeeNews) Several competing bidders are reportedly targeting different parts of Lukoil's international business, which Carlyle is assessing as part of a broader sale process triggered by recent U.S. sanctions on Lukoil (SeeNews) From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Carlyle repurchased about 1.57 million shares for 100 million dollars, representing 0.44 percent of shares outstanding (company buyback update) Since launching its buyback program on October 28, 2021, Carlyle has repurchased approximately 24.65 million shares, or 6.85 percent of its share base, for a total of about 1.01 billion dollars (company buyback update) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately 66 dollars from about 65.7 dollars.Narrative Update • Dec 12
CG: Global Asset Deals And Completed Buybacks Will Shape Balanced Outlook
The analyst price target for Carlyle Group has inched higher to approximately 65.73 dollars from 65 dollars, as analysts modestly refine their models to reflect slightly lower perceived risk, resilient top line expansion, and a marginally stronger long term profitability profile. What's in the News Carlyle is exploring a potential bid for the foreign assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil and may seek a U.S. licence to negotiate.Narrative Update • Nov 28
CG: Buybacks And Global Deal Pursuits Will Drive Momentum Ahead
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for the Carlyle Group from $65.56 to $65.00. They cite modest adjustments in profit margin and discount rate estimates, even though they expect slightly higher revenue growth.Narrative Update • Nov 14
CG: Increased Private Equity Interest Will Drive Momentum In Precision Engineering
Analysts have revised their fair value target for Carlyle Group from $69.25 to $65.56. They cite shifts in revenue growth expectations and profit margin forecasts as the primary drivers behind the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 31
CG: Minority Stake Deal And Buybacks Will Drive Value Creation
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Carlyle Group from $69.06 to $69.25, citing minor improvements in estimated revenue growth and projected profits. What's in the News Carlyle Group is reportedly among private equity firms in discussions to acquire a minority stake in Nash Industries, an auto components maker in Bengaluru, as part of its first institutional fundraising round (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Oct 16
Global Partnerships And Geographic Expansion Will Unlock Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Carlyle Group from $68.08 to $69.06 per share. They cited improved revenue growth expectations and a modest reduction in implied risk, even as profit margin forecasts were slightly lowered.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Global Partnerships And Geographic Expansion Will Unlock Value
Despite a significant downgrade in revenue growth forecasts and a slight increase in future P/E, Carlyle Group's consensus analyst price target has been raised from $61.70 to $65.88. What's in the News John C.Analysis Article • Jul 15
Revenues Not Telling The Story For The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) After Shares Rise 28%
Despite an already strong run, The Carlyle Group Inc. ( NASDAQ:CG ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Carlyle Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 3,249 | 547 | 2,090 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 4,032 | 809 | 2,054 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 3,208 | 662 | 2,026 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 5,526 | 1,256 | 2,044 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 5,039 | 1,085 | 2,027 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 4,740 | 1,020 | 2,009 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 4,637 | 118 | 1,972 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,776 | -397 | 1,941 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,218 | -643 | 1,929 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,421 | -608 | 1,925 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,264 | 211 | 1,951 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,689 | 410 | 1,915 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 3,341 | 754 | 1,855 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 4,117 | 1,225 | 1,782 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 5,417 | 1,745 | 1,709 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 5,977 | 1,997 | 1,636 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 7,630 | 2,677 | 1,551 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 8,490 | 2,975 | 1,503 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 8,025 | 2,846 | 1,427 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 7,433 | 2,609 | 1,392 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 5,864 | 1,830 | 1,383 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 2,677 | 348 | 1,334 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 1,630 | -179 | 1,371 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 1,370 | -406 | 1,398 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 1,319 | -404 | 1,412 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 3,163 | 345 | 1,468 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 2,847 | 338 | 1,427 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 2,745 | 281 | 1,091 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 2,561 | 196 | 1,471 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 2,180 | 93 | 1,447 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 3,229 | 162 | 1,435 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 3,138 | 195 | 1,717 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 3,103 | 189 | 1,304 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 3,276 | 238 | 1,452 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 2,883 | 176 | 1,356 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 2,839 | 133 | 1,476 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 2,552 | 81 | 1,491 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 2,033 | 6 | 1,503 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 1,944 | 11 | 1,520 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 1,426 | -73 | 1,635 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,415 | -49 | 1,672 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,868 | -18 | 1,723 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 1,962 | 2 | 1,678 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: CG has a high level of non-cash earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CG's current net profit margins (16.8%) are lower than last year (21.5%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CG's earnings have declined by 36.4% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: CG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: CG had negative earnings growth (-49.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Capital Markets industry average (38.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: CG's Return on Equity (8.7%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/06 13:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/02 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The Carlyle Group Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Roger Freeman | Barclays |
| Benjamin Budish | Barclays |
| Brennan Hawken | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |