The Carlyle Group Inc.

NasdaqGS:CG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.1b

Carlyle Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Carlyle Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.4% and 21.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 24.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 23.4% in 3 years.

Key information

18.4%

Earnings growth rate

24.36%

EPS growth rate

Capital Markets earnings growth12.4%
Revenue growth rate21.8%
Future return on equity23.42%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated09 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jul 06

CG: Climate Risk And Retirement Access Initiatives Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Carlyle Group to about $59.88 from roughly $61.81, citing updated assumptions that combine higher projected revenue growth with a modestly lower profit margin and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Carlyle Group Carlyle Group introduced a new climate risk framework for its roughly $475b portfolio during London Climate Action Week, working with Marsh and institutional investors to help portfolio managers factor physical climate risk into asset valuations and potentially access improved insurance terms.
Narrative Update • Jun 22

CG: Acquisitions And New Fundraising Will Shape A Balanced Forward Outlook

Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Carlyle Group to $45.16 from $45.24. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update • Jun 07

CG: Defense Energy And Data Fundraising Super Cycle Will Support Upside

Analysts have reduced their price target on Carlyle Group to $75 from $81, reflecting updated assumptions that include a higher discount rate, revised revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz outlined expectations for a fundraising "super cycle" centered on defense, energy, and data protection themes, citing growing government reliance on private capital to address deficits and national security priorities.
Seeking Alpha • May 31

The Carlyle Group: Undervalued Given Limited Private Credit Exposure

Summary Carlyle Group is undervalued due to overstated private credit concerns, despite limited direct lending exposure. Management targets $200B in new assets and >$6/share earnings, but guidance is ambitious; even $185B in inflows would be strong. CG’s balance sheet is robust with ~$5B net cash/investments, a secure 3.1% dividend yield, and ongoing buybacks. I maintain a buy rating, seeing 11x earnings as compelling and fair value in the mid-$60s as fundraising accelerates. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 24

CG: Data Centers And Buybacks Will Shape A Balanced Forward Outlook

The latest analyst price target for Carlyle Group has shifted from $48.00 to $45.24. Analysts attribute the change to updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, a slightly different profit margin outlook, a modestly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the revision.
Analysis Article • May 20

Analysts Are More Bearish On The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) Than They Used To Be

One thing we could say about the analysts on The Carlyle Group Inc. ( NASDAQ:CG ) - they aren't optimistic, having just...
Narrative Update • May 06

CG: Expanded Partnerships And Data Center Projects Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Carlyle Group to about $61.81 from $66.94, citing revised assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly higher future P/E multiple as the key drivers of the update. What's in the News Carlyle and SEI announced an expanded partnership aimed at widening access to institutional private market capabilities across wealth and retirement channels, including potential new collaborative solutions and model portfolios for private market exposure (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 20

CG: Data Center Projects And Buybacks Will Support A Balanced Outlook

Analysts now set a lower price target for Carlyle Group at $48.00, down from about $55.27, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News US Army selects Carlyle and KKR to build two data centres on military bases, each estimated to cost about US$2b, with long term leases and capacity partly reserved for Army use.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

CG: Future Data Centre Projects And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Carlyle Group from $75.00 to $81.00. They cited updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E ratio as the key drivers behind the higher price target.
Narrative Update • Mar 23

CG: Ongoing Buybacks And Selective Dealmaking Will Support Future Upside

The analyst price target for Carlyle Group has shifted modestly to $66.94 from $66.27, as analysts factor in updated assumptions that include a slightly different discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations, a marginally higher profit margin, and a small change in the future P/E input. What's in the News Carlyle Group announced a share repurchase program that allows the company to buy back up to US$2.0b of its common shares, signaling an ongoing focus on returning capital to shareholders (Buyback Transaction Announcements).
Narrative Update • Mar 09

CG: Buybacks And Potential Sports Deal Will Support Bullish Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Carlyle Group to $55.27 from $53.95, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Carlyle Group announced a share repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to US$2.0b of its common shares.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

CG: Future Sports And Healthtech Deals Will Test Fairly Priced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Carlyle Group to $53.95 from $54.60, reflecting updated assumptions around higher expected revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, a marginally higher discount rate, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle is among private equity firms evaluating the acquisition of EQT Partners' 40% stake in healthtech firm CitiusTech in a potential deal likely around US$1b, with JP Morgan running the sale process and no bids placed yet (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 08

CG: Future Sports And Energy Deals Will Test Fairly Priced Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Carlyle Group to US$54.60 from US$53.74, reflecting updated assumptions that include a lower discount rate, a revised revenue growth outlook, a higher projected profit margin, and a slightly adjusted future P/E multiple. What's in the News Carlyle is reported to be evaluating non binding bids for a potential stake in Indian Premier League team Royal Challengers Bengaluru, alongside other global buyout firms and large investors, in a process that could value the franchise between US$1.4b and US$1.8b (media reports).
Narrative Update • Jan 24

CG: Future Sanctioned Asset Pursuit Will Undermine Already Stretched Pricing

Analysts have nudged their price target for Carlyle Group slightly higher to about US$53.74 from roughly US$53.00, citing modest adjustments in assumed revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate and future P/E as the drivers behind the change. What's in the News Global private equity firms, including The Carlyle Group Inc., are evaluating non binding bids for a stake in Indian Premier League team Royal Challengers Bengaluru, with reported potential valuation in the US$1.4b to US$1.8b range (M&A Rumors and Discussions).
Narrative Update • Jan 10

CG: Future Sanctioned Asset Pursuit Will Undermine Already Stretched Pricing

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Carlyle Group from $56.00 to $53.00, citing updated assumptions that include a higher discount rate, a change from a 2.59% revenue contraction to 24.74% growth, a profit margin increase from 31.92% to 36.02%, and a lower future P/E expectation from 16.76 to 11.09. What's in the News Carlyle is reported to be interested in the foreign assets of PJSC LUKOIL, a Russian oil company under U.S. sanctions, and is considering seeking a U.S. licence to talk about a potential deal, with no due diligence conducted so far and no assurance the discussions will move ahead (Financial Times via SeeNews).
Narrative Update • Dec 26

CG: Overseas Energy Bid And Ongoing Buybacks Will Shape Measured Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Carlyle Group by approximately 1 percent to reflect a higher estimated fair value of around 66 dollars, supported by expectations for stronger profit margins and a lower future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Carlyle Group is exploring a potential bid for the foreign assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil and may seek a U.S. licence to hold negotiations, although no due diligence has been conducted and the firm may decide not to proceed (Financial Times via SeeNews) Several competing bidders are reportedly targeting different parts of Lukoil's international business, which Carlyle is assessing as part of a broader sale process triggered by recent U.S. sanctions on Lukoil (SeeNews) From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Carlyle repurchased about 1.57 million shares for 100 million dollars, representing 0.44 percent of shares outstanding (company buyback update) Since launching its buyback program on October 28, 2021, Carlyle has repurchased approximately 24.65 million shares, or 6.85 percent of its share base, for a total of about 1.01 billion dollars (company buyback update) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately 66 dollars from about 65.7 dollars.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

CG: Global Asset Deals And Completed Buybacks Will Shape Balanced Outlook

The analyst price target for Carlyle Group has inched higher to approximately 65.73 dollars from 65 dollars, as analysts modestly refine their models to reflect slightly lower perceived risk, resilient top line expansion, and a marginally stronger long term profitability profile. What's in the News Carlyle is exploring a potential bid for the foreign assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil and may seek a U.S. licence to negotiate.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

CG: Buybacks And Global Deal Pursuits Will Drive Momentum Ahead

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for the Carlyle Group from $65.56 to $65.00. They cite modest adjustments in profit margin and discount rate estimates, even though they expect slightly higher revenue growth.
Narrative Update • Nov 14

CG: Increased Private Equity Interest Will Drive Momentum In Precision Engineering

Analysts have revised their fair value target for Carlyle Group from $69.25 to $65.56. They cite shifts in revenue growth expectations and profit margin forecasts as the primary drivers behind the adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 31

CG: Minority Stake Deal And Buybacks Will Drive Value Creation

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Carlyle Group from $69.06 to $69.25, citing minor improvements in estimated revenue growth and projected profits. What's in the News Carlyle Group is reportedly among private equity firms in discussions to acquire a minority stake in Nash Industries, an auto components maker in Bengaluru, as part of its first institutional fundraising round (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Oct 16

Global Partnerships And Geographic Expansion Will Unlock Value

Analysts have raised their price target for Carlyle Group from $68.08 to $69.06 per share. They cited improved revenue growth expectations and a modest reduction in implied risk, even as profit margin forecasts were slightly lowered.
Narrative Update • Aug 08

Global Partnerships And Geographic Expansion Will Unlock Value

Despite a significant downgrade in revenue growth forecasts and a slight increase in future P/E, Carlyle Group's consensus analyst price target has been raised from $61.70 to $65.88. What's in the News John C.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:CG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20285,5981,9271,8922,0081
12/31/20274,9501,8072,0792,1856
12/31/20263,6761,4401,3701,4606
3/31/20263,249547-4,277-4,166N/A
12/31/20254,032809-3,375-3,275N/A
9/30/20253,208662-2,517-2,433N/A
6/30/20255,5261,256-162-82N/A
3/31/20255,0391,085-1,263-1,183N/A
12/31/20244,7401,020-837-759N/A
9/30/20244,637118-221-153N/A
6/30/20242,776-397-211-145N/A
3/31/20242,218-643321389N/A
12/31/20232,421-608138205N/A
9/30/20232,264211-235-170N/A
6/30/20232,689410-725-670N/A
3/31/20233,341754-161-120N/A
12/31/20224,1171,225-1,038-379N/A
9/30/20225,4171,745-428230N/A
6/30/20225,9771,997-22637N/A
3/31/20227,6302,6776871,350N/A
12/31/20218,4902,9751,7501,791N/A
9/30/20218,0252,8461,1931,244N/A
6/30/20217,4332,609448503N/A
3/31/20215,8641,83089146N/A
12/31/20202,677348-230-169N/A
9/30/20201,630-179-724-676N/A
6/30/20201,370-406-1513N/A
3/31/20201,319-404-262-228N/A
12/31/20193,163345N/A359N/A
9/30/20192,847338N/A486N/A
6/30/20192,745281N/A464N/A
3/31/20192,561196N/A20N/A
12/31/20182,18093N/A-343N/A
9/30/20183,229162N/A-484N/A
6/30/20183,138195N/A-918N/A
3/31/20183,103189N/A-545N/A
12/31/20173,276238N/A-7N/A
9/30/20172,883176N/A144N/A
6/30/20172,839133N/A467N/A
3/31/20172,55281N/A195N/A
12/31/20162,0336N/A-301N/A
9/30/20161,94411N/A-412N/A
6/30/20161,426-73N/A212N/A
3/31/20161,415-49N/A2,448N/A
12/31/20151,868-18N/A3,903N/A
9/30/20151,9622N/A4,572N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CG's forecast earnings growth (18.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: CG's earnings (18.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (18.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CG's revenue (21.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CG's revenue (21.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.4%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/13 20:27
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/13 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Carlyle Group Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Roger FreemanBarclays
Benjamin BudishBarclays
Brennan HawkenBMO Capital Markets Equity Research