Update shared on 12 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 1.13%The analyst price target for Carlyle Group has inched higher to approximately 65.73 dollars from 65 dollars, as analysts modestly refine their models to reflect slightly lower perceived risk, resilient top line expansion, and a marginally stronger long term profitability profile.
What's in the News
- Carlyle is exploring a potential bid for the foreign assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil and may seek a U.S. licence to negotiate. No due diligence has begun and the firm may ultimately walk away (Financial Times via SeeNews).
- Lukoil is accelerating efforts to sell its international assets after new U.S. sanctions, with multiple bidders competing for different parts of the business. A prior sale agreement to Gunvor collapsed following U.S. Treasury objections (Financial Times via SeeNews).
- From July 1 to September 30, 2025, Carlyle repurchased about 1.57 million shares for 100 million dollars, completing a multi year buyback program totaling roughly 24.65 million shares, or 6.85 percent of outstanding stock, for just over 1.0 billion dollars.
- Carlyle is among private equity investors reportedly in the running to acquire a stake in India based auto components maker Nash Industries, which is seeking 120 million to 150 million dollars in its first institutional fundraising round (Moneycontrol, Mint).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: nudged higher from 65 dollars to approximately 65.73 dollars, reflecting a modest uplift in the intrinsic value estimate.
- Discount Rate: edged down slightly from about 9.79 percent to roughly 9.68 percent, implying a marginally lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: eased fractionally from around 24.26 percent to about 24.15 percent, indicating a slightly more conservative outlook for revenue.
- Net Profit Margin: risen slightly from roughly 30.05 percent to about 30.13 percent, signaling a modest improvement in long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: increased marginally from about 16.65x to roughly 16.78x, suggesting a small expansion in the expected valuation multiple.
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