Diversified Financials U.S. Investing Ideas

US$65
30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$6.15
84.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
N/A
Future PE
29.76x
Price in 2031
US$0
US$750
28.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
14.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
45.88%
Future PE
27.98x
Price in 2031
US$1.06k
US$241.95
2.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.97% p.a.
Profit Margin
19.78%
Future PE
28.91x
Price in 2031
US$348.87
US$155
22.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
17.32% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.3%
Future PE
23.4x
Price in 2031
US$275.05
US$640
11.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Forward EPS model: Starting from trailing EPS of $10.36 (Price $591 ÷ PE 57x), applying a weighted average earnings growth of +45% for 2026 and +23% for 2027 across top holdings (MU, AMD, MRVL, NVDA, AVGO, INTC weighted by fund allocation), yielding a 2027E EPS of $18.55. Applying a fair forward PE of 30x (semiconductor historical mid-cycle 28–35x, plus 3x AI structural premium, minus hype compression vs. today's 57x). Base price: $556. Adding $1.60 annual dividend and a 16% sector sentiment premium for a confirmed AI infrastructure cycle. Cross-checked against a 5.0x forward P/S multiple on 2027E revenues (+25% growth), yielding ~$545. Blended fair value: $640 by EOY 2027.
US$38
10.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Fair value estimated using a forward earnings + PE re-rating approach anchored to end-of-2026 price targets. Starting price (6/16/2026): $33.96 Earnings Growth: Blended EPS growth of ~21% (weighted consensus across top holdings — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, AVGO, COST, LLY). This reflects strong AI-driven revenue acceleration and margin expansion across the fund's mega-cap growth core. PE Re-Rating: Applied a -5 turn de-rating from current fund-level PE of 34.6x down to ~29–31x forward, reflecting valuation normalization as rates remain elevated and growth premium compresses slightly. Dividend: Added ~$0.07 for 2 remaining quarterly dividends in H2 2026 (~$0.036 each). Base Case Fair Value: ~$35.68–$38.00 (+5% to +12% upside from current price) Bull Case: EPS +26%, PE 32–35x → Price Target $40–42 (+18% to +24%) Bear Case: EPS +12%, PE 22–25x → Price Target $28–30 (-12% to -18%) This methodology deliberately discounts the SWS DCF model output ($120.43) as it relies on 5-year revenue projections (Revenue $59.6B, Margin 28%) that may overestimate long-term ETF-level earnings power. The forward PE + earnings approach better reflects near-term price discovery for a passively managed large-cap growth ETF.
US$162.18
30.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
25% p.a.
Profit Margin
42.1%
Future PE
41.53x
Price in 2031
US$239.81