Diversified Financials U.S. Investing Ideas

US$416.4
51.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-5.07% p.a.
Profit Margin
38.36%
Future PE
34.58x
Price in 2031
US$616.7
US$65
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$103
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
N/A
Future PE
2.71x
Price in 2031
US$0
US$119.99
57.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
27.15% p.a.
Profit Margin
15.17%
Future PE
8.45x
Price in 2031
US$185.59
US$6.15
85.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
N/A
Future PE
29.76x
Price in 2031
US$0
US$750
27.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
14.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
45.88%
Future PE
27.98x
Price in 2031
US$1.06k
US$241.95
13.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.97% p.a.
Profit Margin
19.78%
Future PE
28.91x
Price in 2031
US$348.87
US$155
33.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
17.32% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.3%
Future PE
23.4x
Price in 2031
US$275.05