EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12-Month Price Target: $142 Current Price: $105.71 Implied Upside: 34.3% Rating: STRONG BUY Risk Assessment: MODERATE INVESTMENT THESIS Global Payments (GPN) presents a compelling investment opportunity at current levels, with three key catalysts driving potential outperformance in 2025: Q4 2024 momentum in Merchant Solutions with strong POS adoption (added ~3,000 new locations) Strategic sale of AdvancedMD for $1.125 billion at attractive multiple with $700M earmarked for shareholder returns Successful integration of EVO Payments enhancing B2B capabilities and geographic reach VALUATION METHODOLOGY Our $142 price target reflects: Forward P/E multiple of 13x (below historical average, reflecting current market dynamics) applied to our 2025 EPS estimate of $10.92 EV/EBITDA multiple of 11x on projected 2025 EBITDA, reflecting recent sector compression DCF analysis using 9.5% WACC (adjusted for higher rate environment) and 3% terminal growth KEY GROWTH DRIVERS Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 adjusted net revenue increased 6% to $2.36 billion Adjusted operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 46.1% Added 92 new software partners in Q3, up 60% year-over-year Macro Environment U.S. GDP growth projected at 2.4% for 2025, supporting payment volumes Fed funds rate expected to decrease to 3.88%, reducing funding costs Resilient high-income consumer spending evidenced by recent holiday data RISK FACTORS Near-term margin pressure from technology investments and compensation costs Integration execution risk from recent acquisitions Increasing competition in digital payments space Potential policy changes under new administration FINANCIAL METRICS Key Financial Metrics for Q4 2024E: Revenue Growth: 5-6% Operating Margin: 46.1% EPS Growth: 11-12% Free Cash Flow Conversion: 92% Projected Metrics for 2025E: Revenue Growth: 8-9% Operating Margin: 46.6% EPS Growth: 13-14% Free Cash Flow Conversion: 93% STRATEGIC POSITIONING Recent developments reinforce GPN's leadership in: Integrated payments with strong new partner acquisition B2B payments expansion through EVO integration Software-driven solutions with continued innovation International market penetration RECOMMENDATION RATIONALE Our STRONG BUY recommendation at current price of $105.71 is based on: Current valuation represents significant discount to intrinsic value Strong Q3 2024 execution with improving operating leverage Strategic initiatives creating clearer growth path Robust free cash flow generation supporting shareholder returnsRead more
Key Takeaways Integrated platforms, strategic acquisitions, and tech investments are enhancing Global Payments' growth, margin expansion, and competitive positioning in digital and cross-border payments. Strong demand from small and mid-sized businesses and operational transformations are expected to drive recurring revenues, improved client retention, and expanded market share.Read more
Key Takeaways Shifting payment technologies, including mobile ecosystems and blockchain, threaten to erode Global Payments' market share, revenue base, and relevance without significant innovation. Heightened competition, regulatory scrutiny, and integration risks from acquisitions are likely to compress margins and increase operational challenges, jeopardizing long-term profitability.Read more
Key Takeaways Accelerated earnings growth is expected from successful integrations, synergy outperformance, and strong capital returns, potentially boosting EPS and shareholder value. Early international adoption of innovative payment platforms and ecosystem investments position the company for outsized organic growth and market share gains.Read more
Global Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. This segment also provides an array of enterprise software solutions that streamline business operations of its customers in various vertical markets; and value-added solutions and services, such as point-of-sale software, analytics and customer engagement, payroll and reporting, and human capital management. The Issuer Solutions segment offers solutions that enable financial institutions and retailers to manage their card portfolios through a platform; and commercial payments, accounts payables, and electronic payment alternatives solutions for businesses and governments. It markets its products and services through direct sales force, trade associations, agent and enterprise software providers, referral arrangements with value-added resellers, and independent sales organizations. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
