Affirm Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AFRM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$21.5b

Affirm Holdings Valuation

Is AFRM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFRM ($68.37) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($3.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFRM is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFRM?

Key metric: As AFRM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AFRM. This is calculated by dividing AFRM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AFRM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio8.5x
SalesUS$2.52b
Market CapUS$21.47b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AFRM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AFRM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.4x
TOST Toast
5.3x17.3%US$24.5b
CPAY Corpay
6.8x9.9%US$26.5b
FOUR Shift4 Payments
2.6x19.5%US$10.4b
GPN Global Payments
3x3.1%US$30.4b
AFRM Affirm Holdings
8.5x19.7%US$21.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AFRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (4.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AFRM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RKT Rocket Companies
0.5x23.3%US$28.60b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.4x9.5%US$10.48b
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
0.4x-2.9%US$10.08b
LDI loanDepot
0.4x18.5%US$752.10m
AFRM 8.5xIndustry Avg. 2.8xNo. of Companies15PS0246810+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AFRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.5x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFRM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFRM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio8.5x
Fair PS Ratio3.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AFRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFRM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$68.37
US$53.59
-21.6%
28.3%US$75.00US$20.00n/a17
Nov ’25US$43.22
US$45.81
+6.0%
25.8%US$68.00US$20.00n/a17
Oct ’25US$38.48
US$40.80
+6.0%
30.3%US$65.00US$20.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$44.01
US$38.78
-11.9%
30.9%US$65.00US$20.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$26.42
US$37.43
+41.7%
31.7%US$65.00US$20.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$29.83
US$38.33
+28.5%
30.4%US$65.00US$20.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$29.27
US$36.93
+26.2%
33.5%US$65.00US$20.00n/a15
May ’25US$32.12
US$37.85
+17.8%
32.1%US$65.00US$20.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$34.83
US$38.11
+9.4%
35.4%US$65.00US$13.00n/a16
Mar ’25US$38.01
US$38.27
+0.7%
37.8%US$65.00US$13.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$39.67
US$31.23
-21.3%
52.1%US$65.00US$6.00n/a19
Jan ’25US$49.14
US$28.68
-41.6%
55.8%US$65.00US$6.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$37.67
US$22.17
-41.1%
40.5%US$41.00US$6.00n/a19
Nov ’24US$17.61
US$16.19
-8.0%
35.5%US$28.00US$6.00US$43.2218
Oct ’24US$21.27
US$15.94
-25.1%
35.8%US$25.00US$6.00US$38.4816
Sep ’24US$21.86
US$15.61
-28.6%
32.5%US$25.00US$6.00US$44.0118
Aug ’24US$19.61
US$14.67
-25.2%
31.9%US$24.00US$6.00US$26.4218
Jul ’24US$15.33
US$14.00
-8.7%
30.2%US$24.00US$6.00US$29.8318
Jun ’24US$14.58
US$13.34
-8.5%
24.6%US$17.00US$6.00US$29.2716
May ’24US$9.99
US$13.69
+37.1%
23.0%US$18.00US$6.00US$32.1217
Apr ’24US$11.27
US$13.82
+22.6%
22.4%US$18.00US$6.00US$34.8318
Mar ’24US$12.61
US$14.31
+13.4%
23.3%US$20.00US$6.00US$38.0119
Feb ’24US$17.72
US$18.04
+1.8%
45.4%US$46.00US$6.00US$39.6719
Jan ’24US$9.67
US$18.78
+94.2%
44.7%US$46.00US$8.00US$49.1419
Dec ’23US$14.41
US$20.99
+45.7%
44.6%US$52.00US$10.00US$37.6719
Nov ’23US$19.46
US$29.72
+52.7%
35.1%US$53.00US$15.00US$17.6118

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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