Shift4 Payments, Inc.

NYSE:FOUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.2b

Shift4 Payments Valuation

Is FOUR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FOUR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FOUR ($109.28) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($107.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FOUR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FOUR?

Key metric: As FOUR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FOUR. This is calculated by dividing FOUR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FOUR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio60.9x
EarningsUS$126.20m
Market CapUS$9.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FOUR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FOUR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average48.7x
WEX WEX
21.9x21.5%US$7.2b
JKHY Jack Henry & Associates
31.5x8.6%US$12.5b
PAY Paymentus Holdings
111.8x22.9%US$4.5b
PAYO Payoneer Global
29.6x9.9%US$3.9b
FOUR Shift4 Payments
60.9x28.6%US$9.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.9x) compared to the peer average (48.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FOUR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FOA Finance of America Companies
1.2x-143.9%US$453.70m
PMIR PMI Group
1.2xn/aUS$6.80m
ACGX Alliance Creative Group
2xn/aUS$491.32k
No more companies available in this PE range
FOUR 60.9xIndustry Avg. 17.8xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.9x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FOUR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FOUR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio60.9x
Fair PE Ratio23.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FOUR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$109.28
US$111.17
+1.7%
13.0%US$126.00US$70.00n/a23
Nov ’25US$90.55
US$97.56
+7.7%
16.3%US$120.00US$48.91n/a23
Oct ’25US$88.26
US$90.95
+3.0%
14.3%US$109.00US$48.91n/a22
Sep ’25US$83.10
US$89.09
+7.2%
14.7%US$106.00US$48.91n/a21
Aug ’25US$65.02
US$87.18
+34.1%
14.5%US$104.00US$48.90n/a22
Jul ’25US$73.84
US$86.04
+16.5%
14.4%US$104.00US$48.90n/a22
Jun ’25US$67.28
US$85.83
+27.6%
14.2%US$104.00US$48.90n/a23
May ’25US$57.89
US$89.66
+54.9%
12.5%US$105.00US$53.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$64.85
US$90.68
+39.8%
12.2%US$105.00US$52.32n/a23
Mar ’25US$83.54
US$91.19
+9.2%
12.5%US$105.00US$52.32n/a23
Feb ’25US$74.03
US$85.31
+15.2%
16.3%US$110.00US$49.64n/a22
Jan ’25US$74.34
US$79.28
+6.6%
17.1%US$110.00US$48.68n/a21
Dec ’24US$67.48
US$77.95
+15.5%
12.3%US$97.00US$60.00n/a19
Nov ’24US$45.45
US$77.95
+71.5%
13.8%US$97.00US$55.00US$90.5519
Oct ’24US$55.37
US$82.38
+48.8%
10.9%US$97.00US$57.00US$88.2616
Sep ’24US$57.79
US$83.50
+44.5%
12.0%US$100.00US$57.00US$83.1018
Aug ’24US$68.57
US$81.76
+19.2%
12.0%US$97.00US$50.00US$65.0217
Jul ’24US$67.91
US$81.25
+19.6%
11.9%US$97.00US$50.00US$73.8416
Jun ’24US$64.02
US$81.14
+26.7%
12.8%US$97.00US$50.00US$67.2814
May ’24US$68.40
US$81.86
+19.7%
12.8%US$97.00US$50.00US$57.8914
Apr ’24US$75.80
US$78.57
+3.7%
17.4%US$97.00US$35.00US$64.8514
Mar ’24US$69.43
US$76.80
+10.6%
17.3%US$97.00US$35.00US$83.5415
Feb ’24US$65.42
US$68.20
+4.2%
19.3%US$97.00US$32.00US$74.0315
Jan ’24US$55.93
US$60.13
+7.5%
21.8%US$97.00US$32.00US$74.3415
Dec ’23US$49.88
US$59.50
+19.3%
22.5%US$97.00US$32.00US$67.4814
Nov ’23US$46.18
US$61.43
+33.0%
21.5%US$97.00US$32.00US$45.4514

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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