Shift4 Payments, Inc.

NYSE:FOUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.4b

Shift4 Payments Valuation

Is FOUR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FOUR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FOUR ($104.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($106.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FOUR is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FOUR?

Key metric: As FOUR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FOUR. This is calculated by dividing FOUR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FOUR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio58.4x
EarningsUS$126.20m
Market CapUS$9.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FOUR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FOUR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average45.7x
WEX WEX
20.5x20.7%US$6.9b
JKHY Jack Henry & Associates
32x8.6%US$12.9b
PAY Paymentus Holdings
102.7x22.9%US$4.1b
PAYO Payoneer Global
27.5x10.9%US$3.6b
FOUR Shift4 Payments
58.4x29.0%US$9.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.4x) compared to the peer average (45.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FOUR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FOA Finance of America Companies
1.6x-136.3%US$624.50m
PMIR PMI Group
0.09xn/aUS$518.61k
ACGX Alliance Creative Group
1.6xn/aUS$263.44k
No more companies available in this PE range
FOUR 58.4xIndustry Avg. 17.7xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.4x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FOUR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FOUR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio58.4x
Fair PE Ratio24.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FOUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (58.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FOUR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$104.85
US$117.81
+12.4%
12.2%US$150.00US$70.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$114.08
US$116.09
+1.8%
13.2%US$150.00US$70.00n/a22
Nov ’25US$90.55
US$97.56
+7.7%
16.3%US$120.00US$48.91n/a23
Oct ’25US$88.26
US$90.95
+3.0%
14.3%US$109.00US$48.91n/a22
Sep ’25US$83.10
US$89.09
+7.2%
14.7%US$106.00US$48.91n/a21
Aug ’25US$65.02
US$87.18
+34.1%
14.5%US$104.00US$48.90n/a22
Jul ’25US$73.84
US$86.04
+16.5%
14.4%US$104.00US$48.90n/a22
Jun ’25US$67.28
US$85.83
+27.6%
14.2%US$104.00US$48.90n/a23
May ’25US$57.89
US$89.66
+54.9%
12.5%US$105.00US$53.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$64.85
US$90.68
+39.8%
12.2%US$105.00US$52.32n/a23
Mar ’25US$83.54
US$91.19
+9.2%
12.5%US$105.00US$52.32n/a23
Feb ’25US$74.03
US$85.31
+15.2%
16.3%US$110.00US$49.64n/a22
Jan ’25US$74.34
US$79.28
+6.6%
17.1%US$110.00US$48.68n/a21
Dec ’24US$67.48
US$77.95
+15.5%
12.3%US$97.00US$60.00US$114.0819
Nov ’24US$45.45
US$77.95
+71.5%
13.8%US$97.00US$55.00US$90.5519
Oct ’24US$55.37
US$82.38
+48.8%
10.9%US$97.00US$57.00US$88.2616
Sep ’24US$57.79
US$83.50
+44.5%
12.0%US$100.00US$57.00US$83.1018
Aug ’24US$68.57
US$81.76
+19.2%
12.0%US$97.00US$50.00US$65.0217
Jul ’24US$67.91
US$81.25
+19.6%
11.9%US$97.00US$50.00US$73.8416
Jun ’24US$64.02
US$81.14
+26.7%
12.8%US$97.00US$50.00US$67.2814
May ’24US$68.40
US$81.86
+19.7%
12.8%US$97.00US$50.00US$57.8914
Apr ’24US$75.80
US$78.57
+3.7%
17.4%US$97.00US$35.00US$64.8514
Mar ’24US$69.43
US$76.80
+10.6%
17.3%US$97.00US$35.00US$83.5415
Feb ’24US$65.42
US$68.20
+4.2%
19.3%US$97.00US$32.00US$74.0315
Jan ’24US$55.93
US$60.13
+7.5%
21.8%US$97.00US$32.00US$74.3415
Dec ’23US$49.88
US$59.50
+19.3%
22.5%US$97.00US$32.00US$67.4814

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 08:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Shift4 Payments, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
John CoffeyBarclays
Mark PalmerBenchmark Company