Toast, Inc.

NYSE:TOST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$22.7b

Toast Valuation

Is TOST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$32.67
Fair Value
20.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
27
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TOST ($39.24) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($32.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOST is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOST?

Key metric: As TOST is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TOST. This is calculated by dividing TOST's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TOST's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.8x
SalesUS$4.66b
Market CapUS$22.73b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TOST's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TOST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.9x
AFRM Affirm Holdings
7.4x18.5%US$18.8b
CPAY Corpay
6.8x9.6%US$26.5b
FOUR Shift4 Payments
2.6x19.7%US$10.7b
GPN Global Payments
2.8x2.3%US$28.2b
TOST Toast
4.8x16.2%US$22.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TOST is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the peer average (4.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TOST's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

12 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RKT Rocket Companies
0.4x22.2%US$24.32b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x11.5%US$9.40b
FOA Finance of America Companies
0.3x-24.8%US$566.02m
LDI loanDepot
0.3x18.4%US$529.74m
TOST 4.8xIndustry Avg. 2.7xNo. of Companies16PS0246810+
12 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TOST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOST's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOST PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.8x
Fair PS Ratio3.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TOST is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.24
US$40.08
+2.1%
14.3%US$50.00US$27.00n/a27
Jan ’26US$36.45
US$39.25
+7.7%
16.7%US$50.00US$25.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$43.54
US$38.41
-11.8%
18.0%US$50.00US$25.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$30.98
US$29.58
-4.5%
11.7%US$35.00US$23.00n/a24
Oct ’25US$28.56
US$27.99
-2.0%
11.9%US$33.00US$19.00n/a23
Sep ’25US$24.86
US$27.67
+11.3%
11.7%US$33.00US$19.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$25.25
US$28.00
+10.9%
11.9%US$33.00US$19.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$25.46
US$27.44
+7.8%
12.5%US$32.60US$19.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$24.23
US$27.44
+13.2%
12.5%US$32.60US$19.00n/a23
May ’25US$23.00
US$24.52
+6.6%
17.9%US$32.00US$17.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$24.33
US$23.74
-2.4%
19.1%US$32.00US$15.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$23.38
US$22.43
-4.1%
15.6%US$31.00US$15.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$18.55
US$19.23
+3.7%
16.2%US$24.00US$12.00US$40.9220
Jan ’25US$18.26
US$18.61
+1.9%
17.1%US$24.00US$12.00US$36.4519
Dec ’24US$15.32
US$18.68
+21.9%
16.3%US$22.00US$12.00US$43.5418
Nov ’24US$16.21
US$23.22
+43.3%
17.5%US$31.00US$16.00US$30.9818
Oct ’24US$18.73
US$25.50
+36.1%
13.6%US$31.00US$19.00US$28.5616
Sep ’24US$21.98
US$25.66
+16.7%
12.3%US$31.00US$19.00US$24.8618
Aug ’24US$21.79
US$24.22
+11.2%
12.7%US$30.00US$18.00US$25.2518
Jul ’24US$22.57
US$23.85
+5.7%
13.0%US$30.00US$18.00US$25.4617
Jun ’24US$21.58
US$23.82
+10.4%
12.9%US$30.00US$18.00US$24.2319
May ’24US$17.52
US$22.67
+29.4%
15.7%US$30.00US$16.00US$23.0018
Apr ’24US$17.75
US$23.50
+32.4%
14.2%US$30.00US$16.00US$24.3317
Mar ’24US$18.41
US$23.97
+30.2%
11.8%US$30.00US$19.00US$23.3816
Feb ’24US$23.15
US$24.69
+6.6%
13.8%US$32.00US$19.00US$18.5516
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 27 Analysts
US$40.08
Fair Value
2.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
27
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/04 22:50
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/04 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Toast, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David KoningBaird
Rufus HoneBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Alexandre FaureBNP Paribas Exane