Earnings Update: Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$5.4b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.47 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Texas Roadhouse is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Texas Roadhouse

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Texas Roadhouse's 26 analysts is for revenues of US$5.84b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 8.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.1% to US$6.96. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.12 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$192, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Texas Roadhouse at US$232 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$140. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 161 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Texas Roadhouse going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Texas Roadhouse's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.