Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

NasdaqGS:TXRH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.6b

Texas Roadhouse Valuation

Is TXRH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TXRH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$107.09
Fair Value
49.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
24
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TXRH ($160.17) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($107.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TXRH is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TXRH?

Key metric: As TXRH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TXRH. This is calculated by dividing TXRH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TXRH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.5x
EarningsUS$433.59m
Market CapUS$10.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TXRH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TXRH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average78.5x
CAVA CAVA Group
79.9x6.2%US$10.4b
ARMK Aramark
25.9x22.1%US$8.8b
BROS Dutch Bros
189.9x40.3%US$10.3b
YUMC Yum China Holdings
18.2x7.5%US$16.6b
TXRH Texas Roadhouse
24.5x8.8%US$10.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TXRH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x) compared to the peer average (78.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TXRH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
INSE Inspired Entertainment
3x-29.6%US$195.87m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
TXRH 24.5xIndustry Avg. 22.7xNo. of Companies17PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TXRH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TXRH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TXRH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.5x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TXRH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TXRH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$160.17
US$189.84
+18.5%
10.7%US$232.00US$139.20n/a24
Apr ’26US$168.92
US$191.57
+13.4%
10.5%US$232.00US$139.78n/a24
Mar ’26US$184.09
US$191.62
+4.1%
10.5%US$232.00US$139.78n/a24
Feb ’26US$181.10
US$200.07
+10.5%
11.9%US$260.00US$139.78n/a24
Jan ’26US$180.43
US$196.03
+8.6%
11.0%US$242.00US$139.78n/a24
Dec ’25US$205.27
US$196.10
-4.5%
10.2%US$242.00US$158.21n/a23
Nov ’25US$187.52
US$195.23
+4.1%
9.9%US$242.00US$158.21n/a23
Oct ’25US$177.22
US$184.01
+3.8%
8.3%US$209.00US$155.00n/a23
Sep ’25US$168.75
US$184.35
+9.2%
7.5%US$209.00US$155.00n/a23
Aug ’25US$173.13
US$184.35
+6.5%
7.5%US$209.00US$155.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$170.36
US$174.39
+2.4%
7.8%US$190.00US$140.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$172.67
US$172.45
-0.1%
9.0%US$190.00US$140.00n/a22
May ’25US$157.06
US$155.52
-1.0%
9.0%US$178.00US$130.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$155.16
US$150.73
-2.9%
8.6%US$175.00US$120.00US$168.9222
Mar ’25US$149.60
US$149.29
-0.2%
8.1%US$165.00US$120.00US$184.0921
Feb ’25US$128.67
US$125.52
-2.4%
10.2%US$146.00US$105.00US$181.1023
Jan ’25US$122.23
US$114.48
-6.3%
8.5%US$130.00US$97.00US$180.4323
Dec ’24US$114.49
US$113.00
-1.3%
8.4%US$130.00US$97.00US$205.2723
Nov ’24US$103.01
US$111.96
+8.7%
8.1%US$130.00US$97.00US$187.5223
Oct ’24US$96.10
US$120.41
+25.3%
10.0%US$155.00US$103.00US$177.2222
Sep ’24US$104.75
US$121.24
+15.7%
10.0%US$155.00US$103.00US$168.7521
Aug ’24US$110.56
US$121.24
+9.7%
10.0%US$155.00US$103.00US$173.1321
Jul ’24US$112.28
US$116.32
+3.6%
7.2%US$131.00US$103.00US$170.3619
Jun ’24US$109.41
US$116.00
+6.0%
7.8%US$131.00US$103.00US$172.6718
May ’24US$112.21
US$110.80
-1.3%
9.0%US$133.00US$95.00US$157.0620
Apr ’24US$108.06
US$108.19
+0.1%
8.1%US$125.00US$90.00US$155.1621
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 24 Analysts
US$189.84
Fair Value
15.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
24
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/13 01:50
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/11 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is covered by 50 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullAvondale Partners
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays