Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

NasdaqGS:TXRH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.1b

Texas Roadhouse Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Texas Roadhouse is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.3% and 8.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 30% in 3 years.

Key information

11.3%

Earnings growth rate

11.85%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth18.1%
Revenue growth rate8.2%
Future return on equity29.99%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated12 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Nov 12

Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) After Its Third-Quarter Report

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TXRH ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 08

Texas Roadhouse: It Hasn't Bottomed Out Yet, But Upside Potential Is Medium Well (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) has reached its one-year low, supporting my previous hold rating, amid the recent market correction. Despite ongoing uncertainty, TXRH's robust fundamentals remain evident and sustained, offering potential for investors at current levels. Valuation for TXRH now appears more reasonable, making the stock potentially attractive at its one-year low. Technical indicators show some potential for TXRH, suggesting a possible new entry opportunity for investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 04

TXRH: Menu Pricing And Easing Beef Costs Will Support Margins

Texas Roadhouse's fair value estimate has been trimmed by about $3 to $193.60 as analysts adjust price targets across the Street, generally reflecting more conservative assumptions around future P/E multiples, revenue growth, and costs following recent research updates that skew toward lower target prices despite some mixed upward revisions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a mix of optimism about Texas Roadhouse's execution and demand trends, alongside more cautious views on costs, margins, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

TXRH: Menu Pricing And Easing Beef Costs Will Support Future Earnings

The analyst price target for Texas Roadhouse has been reduced by about $20 to $196.84, as analysts factor in higher structural cost assumptions and slightly softer margin expectations, even as they acknowledge firm same-store sales trends and menu pricing support. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Texas Roadhouse reflects a mix of optimism about the brand and same store sales trends, alongside more cautious views on margins and valuation after the latest Q4 results.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

TXRH: Beef Cost Pressures And Sector Headwinds Will Shape Earnings Trajectory

Texas Roadhouse's analyst price target edges higher by less than $1 as analysts point to slightly stronger modeled revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin, a lower discount rate, and a roughly flat future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Texas Roadhouse reflects a mix of optimism on the company specific story and caution around the broader restaurant sector, with several firms updating their targets and views as they refresh multi year outlooks.
Narrative Update • Feb 04

TXRH: Tariff Relief And Balanced Execution Will Support Earnings In A Tough Sector

The analyst price target for Texas Roadhouse has been adjusted modestly higher to reflect a fair value move of about US$3 per share, as analysts factor in updated sector views, a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple of 27.23x, a new discount rate of 8.53%, and refreshed expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Texas Roadhouse shows a mix of optimism about the company’s execution and unit economics, alongside caution about sector headwinds, valuation, and cost inflation.
Narrative Update • Jan 21

TXRH: Tariff Relief And Traffic Resilience Will Support Earnings In A Tough Sector

Analysts now peg fair value for Texas Roadhouse at about $193.69, up roughly $2.41 from the prior $191.28. This reflects a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple alongside tempered views on revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rate after a mix of recent target hikes and trims across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 07

TXRH: Beef Tariff Cuts And Traffic Strength Will Support Future Earnings

Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to our Texas Roadhouse fair value estimate to $191.28, reflecting fine tuned assumptions on long term growth and margins, alongside a mix of higher and lower recent Street price targets in response to ongoing cost pressures and sector wide concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Texas Roadhouse reflects a mix of optimism around the company specific execution and caution around broader restaurant sector pressures.
Narrative Update • Dec 22

TXRH: Beef Cost Relief And Traffic Resilience Will Support Future Earnings

Analysts have nudged their Texas Roadhouse price target slightly higher, with our fair value estimate rising to $190.48 from $189.16, as they balance resilient traffic trends and solid execution against margin pressure from elevated beef and broader commodity costs. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed but generally constructive view on Texas Roadhouse, with price targets adjusting around evolving expectations for traffic resilience, commodity inflation, and valuation risk.
Narrative Update • Dec 08

TXRH: Beef Cost Relief Will Support Margins And Future Earnings Power

Analysts modestly lifted their Texas Roadhouse fair value estimate to approximately $189.20 per share, balancing sustained traffic strength and solid same store sales with ongoing margin pressure from elevated beef and broader commodity inflation, as reflected in the latest round of mixed price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a constructive but more nuanced stance on Texas Roadhouse, with modest target cuts clustered around near term margin uncertainty, offset by confidence in the brand's traffic resilience and long term growth algorithm.
Narrative Update • Nov 24

TXRH: Sales Momentum And Commodity Costs Will Influence Margins In A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Texas Roadhouse to $189.08 from $196.16, citing persistent commodity inflation and some margin pressures, even though sales performance remains strong. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research on Texas Roadhouse presents a nuanced picture, highlighting both the company’s strengths and the ongoing challenges facing its valuation and growth prospects.
Analysis Article • Nov 12

Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) After Its Third-Quarter Report

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TXRH ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for...
Narrative Update • Nov 07

TXRH: Same-Store Sales Momentum Will Drive Shares Despite Margin Pressure

The analyst price target for Texas Roadhouse has shifted modestly as a result of adjustments for recent sales momentum and profit margin pressures. Analysts cite solid same-store sales but note concerns over elevated input costs as key factors.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Solid Traffic And Menu Adjustments Will Offset Rising Costs Ahead

Analysts have slightly revised their price target for Texas Roadhouse, increasing it by $5 to $210. They cite ongoing solid traffic and generally stable demand.
Narrative Update • Oct 09

New Outlets And Digital Integration Will Enrich Dining Experience

Texas Roadhouse's average analyst price target has been revised slightly downward to approximately $196.71 from $199.17. Analysts point to resilient traffic but note ongoing concerns about profit margins and cost management.
Narrative Update • Sep 11

New Outlets And Digital Integration Will Enrich Dining Experience

Analysts modestly raised their price target for Texas Roadhouse to $199.17, citing strong traffic, resilient demand among higher-income consumers, and disciplined growth, though margin pressures from rising beef costs remain a concern. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets on Texas Roadhouse due to solid traffic levels and a positive industry demand backdrop, especially among middle and upper income consumer cohorts.
Analysis Article • Jul 31

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TXRH) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.6x Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TXRH ) may be sending very bearish...
Analysis Article • Jul 15

Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) Worth US$188 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Texas Roadhouse fair value estimate is US$141 Current share...
Analysis Article • Jun 29

Do Texas Roadhouse's (NASDAQ:TXRH) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 30

Texas Roadhouse: Grilling Up Growth For Long-Term Success

Summary Texas Roadhouse stands out as a resilient, high-quality business in the US chain restaurant industry, with strong financial fundamentals and a proven business model. Profitability and financial performance metrics point to outperformance. TXRH's valuation appears expensive compared to peers, suggesting a hold rating until a more favorable entry point is available for better returns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 24

Texas Roadhouse: Growth And Margins Have Peaked For Now

Summary Texas Roadhouse has shown impressive growth and profitability, but its stock is currently rated 'Hold' due to limited growth prospects and peak margins. Q4 results were strong with record margins, but the 14-week quarter skewed the numbers, making future comparisons tougher. For 2025, EPS growth is estimated at 8%, with flat margins expected due to rising commodity and wage inflation. At $169 per share, the valuation is fair, but still holds multiple contraction risks; consider buying around $150. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 25

Texas Roadhouse: Chasing Here Would Be A Mistake

Summary Texas Roadhouse shares surged early 2024, but tougher comps and declining margins are pulling the stock to more reasonable levels. Next year is shaping up to be tough, with significant deceleration in unit expansion, comparable sales, and margin declines. The long-term growth trajectory of 7%-10% annual revenue growth and 9%-12% EPS growth is not enough to support a 'Buy' at current levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 27

Texas Roadhouse: When 'Screaming Value' Leads To A Likely Index Inclusion

Summary Texas Roadhouse's customer loyalty and satisfaction have driven its stock to double, outperforming the market despite industry concerns and temporary margin hits. The company's Q3 earnings report showed strong revenue growth, increased restaurant margins, and a significant rise in diluted EPS, signaling robust fundamentals. Texas Roadhouse's strategic focus on small, consistent price increases and acquiring franchised restaurants enhances long-term value for customers and shareholders. With a market cap over $12.5B and strong liquidity, Texas Roadhouse is poised for potential inclusion in the S&P 500, presenting a compelling buy opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:TXRH - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,7326015631,00610
12/31/20277,14450143982628
12/31/20266,53342336375727
3/31/20266,064415355751N/A
12/30/20255,878406336730N/A
9/30/20255,834437341747N/A
7/1/20255,671438373742N/A
4/1/20255,500434394748N/A
12/31/20245,373434399754N/A
9/24/20245,100390341690N/A
6/25/20244,949370306654N/A
3/26/20244,779332261619N/A
12/26/20234,632305218565N/A
9/26/20234,477292192507N/A
6/27/20234,348291209501N/A
3/28/20234,202281249513N/A
12/27/20224,015270266512N/A
9/27/20223,901263279515N/A
6/28/20223,777253246471N/A
3/29/20223,651256268479N/A
12/28/20213,464245268469N/A
9/28/20213,206212257433N/A
6/29/20212,969188308465N/A
3/30/20212,54679240387N/A
12/29/20202,3983176230N/A
9/29/20202,4855491278N/A
6/30/20202,5056241249N/A
3/31/20202,71814066285N/A
12/31/20192,756174N/A374N/A
9/24/20192,637162N/A369N/A
6/25/20192,581155N/A375N/A
3/26/20192,520154N/A357N/A
12/25/20182,457158N/A353N/A
9/25/20182,397157N/A324N/A
6/26/20182,343158N/A323N/A
3/27/20182,280152N/A299N/A
12/26/20172,220132N/A286N/A
9/26/20172,159124N/A285N/A
6/27/20172,100118N/A271N/A
3/28/20172,043114N/A287N/A
12/27/20161,991116N/A257N/A
9/27/20161,960118N/A256N/A
6/28/20161,917113N/A247N/A
3/29/20161,863100N/A235N/A
12/29/20151,80797N/A228N/A
9/29/20151,75793N/A206N/A
6/30/20151,70591N/A205N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TXRH's forecast earnings growth (11.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: TXRH's earnings (11.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TXRH's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TXRH's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TXRH's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TXRH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/12 03:46
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/12 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is covered by 44 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays