Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) After Its Third-Quarter Report

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.0% to hit US$1.25 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Texas Roadhouse from 27 analysts is for revenues of US$6.52b in 2026. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.0% to US$6.86. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.40 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Texas Roadhouse

The consensus price target held steady at US$190, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Texas Roadhouse analyst has a price target of US$235 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$155. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Texas Roadhouse shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 164 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Texas Roadhouse analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Texas Roadhouse that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.