Is Morgan Stanley’s Autonomy Concerns and Rating Cut Altering The Investment Case For Tesla (TSLA)?

• Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Tesla to Equal-Weight, citing slowing automotive growth, intensifying Chinese competition, and execution risks around autonomous driving and robotics that it believes are already reflected in the current valuation.
• At the same time, bulls point to Tesla’s rapid progress in Full Self-Driving and robotaxis, arguing that successful execution on these AI-driven platforms could justify treating the company less like a traditional automaker and more like a long-term software and robotics platform.
• We’ll now examine how Morgan Stanley’s concerns about slower automotive growth and autonomy execution risks may reshape Tesla’s investment narrative.

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Tesla Investment Narrative Recap

Tesla’s story today is less about selling more cars and more about proving it can turn real world AI, robotaxis and Optimus into durable, high margin businesses. Morgan Stanley’s downgrade underlines that the key short term catalyst, progress on autonomy in Austin and beyond, now sits right next to the biggest risk: that execution or regulation slows just as investors have already priced in success.

Against that backdrop, Piper Sandler’s view that Tesla’s Full Self Driving is very close to unsupervised use, backed by a more than 20x jump in miles between critical disengagements after FSD v14.1.x, goes straight to the heart of the AI and robotaxi thesis the market is debating.

Yet beneath the excitement around FSD and robotaxis, investors should be aware of how rising global tariffs and the U.S. One Big Bill could...

Read the full narrative on Tesla (it's free!)

Tesla's narrative projects $148.1 billion revenue and $15.4 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Tesla's forecasts yield a $392.93 fair value, a 14% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

218 members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Tesla’s fair value anywhere from US$67 to over US$2,700 per share, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. Against that wide range, recent concerns about an “EV winter” and slower automotive growth give you extra context to weigh as you explore different views on Tesla’s future.

Explore 218 other fair value estimates on Tesla - why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Tesla Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tesla research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tesla research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tesla's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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