Tesla Valuation

Is TSLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSLA ($201.88) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($103.82)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSLA is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSLA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TSLA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA46.1x
PEG Ratio4.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSLA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TSLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.2x
RACE Ferrari
56.6x8.9%US$77.2b
F Ford Motor
11.4x10.7%US$48.9b
GM General Motors
4.7x-4.1%US$46.9b
LI Li Auto
28.2x24.0%US$45.4b
TSLA Tesla
42.9x10.5%US$643.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the peer average (25.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSLA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (14x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSLA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSLA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

PM vs Fair Ratio: TSLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TSLA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$201.88
US$212.17
+5.1%
26.5%US$345.00US$85.00n/a39
Feb ’25US$188.86
US$217.27
+15.0%
26.9%US$345.00US$85.00n/a38
Jan ’25US$248.48
US$237.10
-4.6%
28.5%US$380.00US$85.00n/a36
Dec ’24US$238.83
US$236.38
-1.0%
28.2%US$380.00US$85.00n/a36
Nov ’24US$205.66
US$238.49
+16.0%
27.9%US$380.00US$85.00n/a36
Oct ’24US$250.22
US$253.29
+1.2%
30.2%US$400.00US$85.00n/a36
Sep ’24US$245.01
US$248.99
+1.6%
29.1%US$350.00US$85.00n/a36
Aug ’24US$261.07
US$245.11
-6.1%
29.8%US$350.00US$85.00n/a35
Jul ’24US$261.77
US$208.04
-20.5%
30.3%US$335.00US$85.00n/a35
Jun ’24US$207.52
US$187.99
-9.4%
25.8%US$300.00US$85.00n/a35
May ’24US$161.83
US$187.31
+15.7%
26.1%US$300.00US$85.00n/a34
Apr ’24US$207.46
US$203.09
-2.1%
27.1%US$320.00US$85.00n/a32
Mar ’24US$202.77
US$200.11
-1.3%
27.9%US$320.00US$85.00US$201.8834
Feb ’24US$181.41
US$190.42
+5.0%
29.9%US$320.00US$85.00US$188.8633
Jan ’24US$123.18
US$248.38
+101.6%
34.4%US$526.67US$85.00US$248.4830
Dec ’23US$194.70
US$279.94
+43.8%
31.7%US$530.00US$85.00US$238.8332
Nov ’23US$227.82
US$281.60
+23.6%
31.8%US$530.00US$85.00US$205.6632
Oct ’23US$265.25
US$308.32
+16.2%
31.2%US$530.00US$83.33US$250.2234
Sep ’23US$277.16
US$306.17
+10.5%
31.6%US$530.00US$83.33US$245.0133
Aug ’23US$297.28
US$303.44
+2.1%
32.1%US$526.67US$83.33US$261.0733
Jul ’23US$227.26
US$306.39
+34.8%
35.3%US$540.00US$83.33US$261.7734
Jun ’23US$246.79
US$313.97
+27.2%
36.9%US$540.00US$83.33US$207.5235
May ’23US$290.25
US$333.99
+15.1%
36.9%US$540.00US$83.33US$161.8334
Apr ’23US$361.53
US$317.84
-12.1%
38.0%US$526.67US$83.33US$207.4632
Mar ’23US$288.12
US$321.30
+11.5%
38.4%US$526.67US$83.33US$202.7732

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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