Tesla Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Tesla has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 2.9%, while the Auto industry saw earnings declining at 13% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 14.5% per year. Tesla's return on equity is 4.6%, and it has net margins of 3.9%.
Key information
2.87%
Earnings growth rate
1.71%
EPS growth rate
| Auto Industry Growth | 23.94% |
| Revenue growth rate | 14.53% |
| Return on equity | 4.63% |
| Net Margin | 3.95% |
| Next Earnings Update | 22 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 12
Tesla And The Emperor's New Clothes
Summary Tesla (TSLA) trades at a $1.5T valuation, yet its core auto business remains low-margin and capital-intensive, with free cash flow multiples exceeding 200x. TSLA's growth narrative is undermined by declining revenue, shrinking profit estimates, and surging capex, with 2026 capex guided above $20B—nearly double EBIT forecasts. Robotaxi and Optimus remain largely aspirational; tangible financial contribution and operational scale are absent, despite being central to the current valuation. Until autonomous and robotics initiatives deliver measurable cash flow and margins, TSLA's valuation is disconnected from its income statement reality. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 29
TSLA: Safety Probes And Autonomy Delays Will Challenge AI Narrative Premium
The analyst price target for Tesla has been raised from $175.78 to $198.57 as analysts factor in slightly higher modeled revenue growth, modestly stronger profit margins, a lower discount rate, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple. This is tied to ongoing focus on robotaxis, Optimus, and AI driven narratives over near term delivery trends.Analysis Article • Jun 21
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Could Be 31.9% Undervalued After AI Spending Rise And FSD Scrutiny
Tesla (TSLA) is back in focus after raising its full year capital spending plans related to AI projects and robotaxis, while regulators in Europe and the U.S. scrutinize its Full Self Driving safety data and speed limit features. See our latest analysis for Tesla. Tesla’s 1 day share price return of 1.04% sits against a weaker 30 day share price return, down 4.15%, while a 24.31% 1 year total shareholder return points to longer term momentum despite recent regulatory headlines and higher AI...
Narrative Update • Jun 15
TSLA: Physical AI And Energy Investments Will Offset Autonomy And Demand Concerns
Analysts have increased their Tesla fair value estimate by about $5 to roughly $421, reflecting slightly higher modeled revenue growth, a modestly lower discount rate, and ongoing debate over how much value to assign to the company's autonomous driving and physical AI ambitions versus mixed near term demand signals. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tesla highlights a wide spread between bullish views that focus on autonomy and physical AI, and more cautious views that center on demand, execution risk, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Jun 01
TSLA: Autonomy And AI Execution Will Drive Future Robotaxi Repricing
Analysts have nudged Tesla's price target higher by a few dollars to reflect slightly stronger modeled revenue growth, modestly improved profit margins, and a marginally lower discount rate, while still recognizing mixed views around execution, capital spending, and the pace of progress in autonomy and AI. Analyst Commentary Tesla continues to sit at the center of a wide debate, with research houses split between enthusiasm around autonomy and energy storage and concern around execution risk, capital intensity, and near term demand signals.Narrative Update • May 12
TSLA: Autonomous And AI Platforms Will Drive Long-Term Equity Repricing
Analysts have made only modest tweaks to Tesla's discount rate and growth assumptions, but a sharp reset in expected profit margin and a much higher assumed future P/E now sit behind the updated $600 price target. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Tesla shows a wide range of opinions, but there is a clear group of bullish analysts who see meaningful upside potential tied to execution in autonomy, AI and the core vehicle and energy businesses.Narrative Update • Apr 28
TSLA: Autonomy And Safety Set To Pressure Rich Future Earnings Multiple
Tesla's analyst fair value estimate has shifted from about $118.61 to roughly $175.78. Analysts point to mixed but generally constructive updates on price targets, as well as ongoing debates over autonomy, AI progress, and Q1 execution as key drivers of the change.Narrative Update • Apr 14
TSLA: AI And Energy Expansion Will Offset Autonomy Execution Concerns
Analysts have nudged their Tesla price target slightly lower to about $415 from roughly $421, reflecting recent target cuts across the Street and updated views on growth, profitability and the valuation multiple applied to future earnings. Analyst Commentary Street research on Tesla currently shows a split view, with some price targets moving higher and others shifting lower, as analysts recalibrate for execution risks, capital needs and the value investors may be assigning to new AI and energy opportunities.
New Narrative • Mar 31
Is Tesla a Stock or a Call Option? - A valuation nightmare!
TLDR Tesla is not being valued like a car company , but like a bundle of future bets sitting on top of a real operating business. The real upside the market is paying for is Robotaxi, Optimus / Physical AI, and Elon Musk premium.Narrative Update • Mar 30
TSLA: AI And Energy Expansion Will Outweigh Autonomy And Auto Execution Risks
Tesla's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower to about $421 from $422, as analysts factor in more tempered revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partially offset by higher long term P/E expectations and mixed views on robotaxi, energy and AI execution. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Tesla reflects a wide range of expectations around valuation, execution in new business lines, and the durability of its competitive position in autonomous driving and energy.
New Narrative • Mar 28
The academically fascinating Tesla
Paraphrasing Charlie Munger, I would neither buy nor short Tesla, Inc. at present.Narrative Update • Mar 16
TSLA: AI And Energy Bets Will Confront Auto And Autonomy Execution Risks
Narrative Update: Tesla The updated analyst price target for Tesla shifts slightly to about $422, as analysts factor in modest adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and a somewhat higher discount rate. This comes alongside mixed but generally constructive research that highlights Tesla's role in autonomous driving and energy, while acknowledging execution and cost risks.New Narrative • Mar 07
Tesla will achieve a 392% PE ratio increase according to recent forecasts
Tesla (TSLA) Investment Narrative Tesla is one of the most prominent companies in the global transition toward electric vehicles and sustainable energy. The company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery storage systems, and solar energy products.Narrative Update • Mar 02
TSLA: Energy And Physical AI Expansion Will Reshape Long-Term Equity Story
Analysts kept their Tesla fair value estimate unchanged at $600, while adjusting assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E to reflect a wider spread of recent price target changes and an increasing focus on the potential contribution from the Energy and AI businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Tesla shows a wide spread of opinions, but there is a clear cluster of bullish analysts who see upside tied to execution in Energy and AI, as well as to progress in autonomous driving and robotics.New Narrative • Feb 21
The Transition From Automaker To AI Behemoth Is Underway, But Priced In
Summary Tesla is actively transitioning its core business from automotive sales to real-world AI, including autonomous driving and humanoid robots. Robotaxi testing is progressing well, with plans to remove safety monitors and expand to seven new US cities in early 2026.New Narrative • Feb 21
Tesla's Revenue to Soar 16% as Fair Value Hits 391.81 in Five Years
TESLA INC. NASDAQ: TSLA The Most Controversial Bet in Investing An Equity Narrative for Simply Wall St | February 2026 1.Narrative Update • Feb 16
TSLA: AI And Energy Bets Will Test Weak Auto Fundamentals
Analysts have nudged their Tesla fair value estimate slightly higher to $421.73, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and Tesla's potential in areas like full self driving, physical AI, and energy, even as individual price targets across the Street have moved both up and down in recent weeks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Tesla shows a wide range of views, with some firms lifting price targets and others trimming them.Narrative Update • Feb 02
TSLA: AI And Autonomy Bets Will Test Weak Auto Fundamentals
Analysts have nudged their Tesla price targets higher to around US$419 from about US$391, reflecting updated models that apply a richer future P/E assumption, even as they factor in more conservative revenue growth and profit margin expectations, alongside a slightly lower discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Tesla shows a wide spread of opinions, even as many firms revisit their price targets and long term assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jan 29
The "Physical AI" Pivot is Now Obvious and Irreversible
For years, the debate has raged: Is Tesla a car company or a tech company? The Q4 2025 results didn't just answer that with words; they answered it with structural action.Narrative Update • Jan 19
TSLA: Autonomy And Robotaxi Progress Will Reshape Long-Term Equity Story
Analysts have nudged their Tesla price targets higher by aligning models with slightly lower discount rates, marginally firmer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a modestly reduced future P/E multiple. Recent research highlights both upside tied to full self driving and robotaxi potential, as well as ongoing concerns about auto fundamentals and execution risk.Narrative Update • Jan 05
TSLA: AI And Robotics Ambitions Will Reshape Long-Term Equity Story
Analysts have raised their Tesla fair value estimate from $500 to $600. They point to updated assumptions for higher revenue growth, wider profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple, even as recent research still highlights risks around delivery trends, spending plans, and governance.Narrative Update • Dec 15
TSLA: AI And Autonomy Focus Will Deepen Risks From Weakening Core Demand
Analysts have modestly trimmed their Tesla price target to approximately $391 per share, reflecting slightly higher discount rates and marginally lower long term growth and margin assumptions, even as they continue to see meaningful upside from AI, autonomy and energy storage over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tesla reflects a wide dispersion of views, with some firms leaning into the company’s AI and robotics optionality while others remain focused on execution risk in the core auto and capital intensity of the growth agenda.Narrative Update • Dec 01
TSLA: Leadership Moves And Delivery Trends Will Define Upside Versus Mounting Execution Risks
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Tesla, citing sustained revenue growth expectations and stabilization in electric vehicle deliveries. This comes despite continued concerns over margin pressure and rising capital expenditures.Narrative Update • Nov 17
TSLA: Mixed Delivery Trends And Execution Risks Will Shape Outlook Amid Leadership Uncertainty
Tesla’s analyst price target has increased modestly to approximately $392.93, up about $1.61. Analysts point to stabilizing delivery volumes and a slightly stronger revenue growth outlook, partially offset by narrower profit margins.Narrative Update • Nov 03
TSLA: Shareholder Pay Vote And Leadership Uncertainty Will Undermine Near-Term Performance
Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Tesla to about $391 from $367 per share, citing slightly improved revenue growth and profit margin expectations. Recent Street research points to delivery stabilization, record Q3 results, and continued optimism around new products despite ongoing earnings variability.Narrative Update • Oct 20
Autonomous Ride-Hailing, Energy Storage And AI Will Shape Future Markets
Tesla's analyst price target has been raised from $350.50 to $366.77 as analysts weigh continued optimism around the company's AI ventures and robotics pipeline. However, they cite moderating growth assumptions and increased industry competition.Narrative Update • Oct 06
Autonomous Ride-Hailing, Energy Storage And AI Will Shape Future Markets
Tesla's analyst price target has increased from approximately $331.58 to $350.50, a rise of nearly $19. This change reflects analysts' optimism after stronger-than-expected Q3 vehicle deliveries, as well as expectations for improving profit margins and new model momentum.Analysis Article • Sep 27
Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Despite an already strong run, Tesla, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last...Narrative Update • Sep 21
Autonomous Ride-Hailing, Energy Storage And AI Will Shape Future Markets
Analysts have raised Tesla’s price target to $331.58, reflecting renewed optimism around Q3–Q4 deliveries, autonomy and robotics growth potential, and successful product rollouts like Robotaxi and FSD, despite near-term margin concerns and mixed views on demand sustainability. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlighted growing confidence in Tesla's Q3 and Q4 delivery volumes, citing upwardly revised estimates, particularly on the back of global survey data and new product/capacity developments, with expectations for long-term earnings growth from autonomy and robotics businesses.Narrative Update • Sep 15
Tesla’s Nvidia Moment – The AI & Robotics Inflection Point
Wow, that was fast. The market is catching on quicker than I expected.Narrative Update • Sep 12
Tesla’s Nvidia Moment – The AI & Robotics Inflection Point
The Market is Finally Waking Up to Tesla Tesla has officially hit my previous fair value target of $360, and after digging into their recent progress, I’m convinced the stock is heading towards $400 by the end of the year. The story here is simple: they are executing incredibly well on all the things that matter for long-term growth.Narrative Update • Sep 06
Autonomous Ride-Hailing, Energy Storage And AI Will Shape Future Markets
Tesla’s consensus price target has increased modestly to $310.53, driven by optimism around Musk’s new incentive package and anticipated growth in autonomous, robotaxi, and robotics initiatives, though concerns remain over execution challenges and EV demand headwinds. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts see the new long-term incentive package for Elon Musk as a catalyst to boost investor sentiment, incentivize sustained leadership, and align Musk’s interests with shareholders, particularly as autonomous driving and robotics come to the forefront.
New Narrative • May 02
Tesla’s Nvidia Moment – The AI & Robotics Inflection Point
AI & Automation – Tesla’s AI advancements, driven by Dojo, position the company as a major AI player. Musk noted that Tesla’s Cortex One training cluster, alongside Dojo, is scaling rapidly, with overSeeking Alpha • Apr 27
Tesla's Poor Earnings Reaffirms Our Top Short Pick
Summary Tesla's Q1 2025 results show a 20% decline in automotive revenues, with net GAAP income at $0.12/share, leading to a P/E of over 400x. Production and deliveries fell significantly, with a 16% YoY decline in production and a 13% drop in deliveries, indicating weak demand. Tesla's lack of technological differentiation and increased competition in FSD and energy storage sectors undermine its long-term growth prospects. With a P/E ratio far exceeding competitors and no clear path to revenue in key areas, Tesla remains our top short pick for 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 21
Tesla Q1 Preview: Expecting Near Record Revenues
Summary Despite a 40% YTD drop, I remain bullish on Tesla due to its diversified revenue streams and potential regulatory tailwinds. Tesla's Q1 delivery miss is minimal in the long run, with the company benefiting from a transforming auto industry and stronger non-auto revenues. Valuation suggests a 35.24% upside, projecting a share price of $325, driven by robust growth in Tesla's energy and autonomous driving sectors. Musk's involvement in DOGE is a concern, but Tesla's strong foundation and diversified revenue base make it a strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 14
Tesla: Even More Bad News
Summary Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has plummeted over 45% since mid-December 2024, and I maintain a 'strong sell' rating due to further downside potential. Tesla is losing market share in both the U.S. and Europe, with declining sales in a growing EV market, which signifies losing market share. The U.S.-China trade war and tariffs risk is increasing Tesla's production costs and affecting its business operations, particularly in China. TSLA stock's valuation remains excessively high at ~46x forward-looking EV/EBITDA. Tesla doesn't deserve such a high valuation. Despite a substantial stock price fall, it remains overvalued and far from cheap. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 06
Autonomous Driving And Retail Trader Buying Won't Steer Tesla's Stock Price
Summary I strongly disagree with Cathie Wood's 10X Tesla prediction: despite a recent decline to $217 and bounce to $280, I maintain a strong sell rating on TSLA stock. I believe autonomous driving won't significantly add to TSLA's value; the field is competitive and may end up as a standard feature rather than a profitable service. Retail traders ploughing in to "buy the dip" is a contrarian indicator. Overall, major tech stocks have performed poorly recently, and this may weigh on TSLA's elevated P/E. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Tesla makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 97,879 | 3,862 | 6,416 | 6,948 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 94,827 | 3,794 | 5,834 | 6,411 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 95,633 | 5,079 | 5,490 | 5,904 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 92,720 | 5,879 | 5,114 | 5,313 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 95,724 | 6,107 | 5,027 | 4,798 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 97,690 | 7,130 | 5,150 | 4,540 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 97,150 | 12,932 | 5,119 | 4,358 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 95,318 | 12,610 | 5,186 | 4,480 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 94,745 | 13,913 | 5,098 | 4,349 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 96,773 | 14,999 | 4,800 | 3,969 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 95,924 | 10,794 | 4,552 | 3,685 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 94,028 | 12,235 | 4,260 | 3,257 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 86,035 | 11,788 | 4,030 | 2,981 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 81,462 | 12,583 | 3,946 | 3,075 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 74,863 | 11,187 | 4,408 | 3,005 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 67,166 | 9,513 | 4,441 | 2,883 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 62,190 | 8,399 | 4,453 | 2,792 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 53,823 | 5,524 | 4,517 | 2,593 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 46,848 | 3,468 | 3,992 | 2,375 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 41,862 | 2,150 | 3,929 | 2,130 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 35,940 | 1,112 | 3,617 | 1,833 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 31,536 | 690 | 3,188 | 1,491 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 28,176 | 525 | 2,918 | 1,314 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 25,708 | 368 | 2,583 | 1,282 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 26,022 | -144 | 2,569 | 1,327 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 24,578 | -870 | 2,646 | 1,343 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 24,420 | -835 | 2,615 | 1,354 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 24,941 | -667 | 2,749 | 1,371 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 22,593 | -976 | 2,853 | 1,433 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 21,461 | -976 | 2,835 | 1,460 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 17,523 | -1,791 | 2,823 | 1,459 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 13,684 | -2,722 | 2,747 | 1,439 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 12,471 | -2,341 | 2,534 | 1,423 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 11,759 | -1,962 | 2,477 | 1,378 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 10,755 | -1,407 | 2,229 | 1,269 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 10,069 | -766 | 1,912 | 1,152 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 8,549 | -723 | 1,696 | 974 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 7,000 | -675 | 1,410 | 834 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 5,930 | -874 | 1,265 | 779 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 4,568 | -1,126 | 1,164 | 743 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 4,253 | -1,017 | 1,045 | 733 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 4,046 | -889 | 922 | 718 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 3,788 | -676 | 831 | 667 |
Quality Earnings: TSLA has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: TSLA's current net profit margins (3.9%) are lower than last year (6.4%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: TSLA's earnings have grown by 2.9% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: TSLA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: TSLA had negative earnings growth (-36.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (-34.8%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: TSLA's Return on Equity (4.6%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/13 18:26 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Tesla, Inc. is covered by 82 analysts. 46 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Theodore O'Neill | Ascendiant Capital Markets LLC |
| Benjamin Kallo | Baird |