Tesla Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Tesla is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22.3% and 15.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 24.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.8% in 3 years.

Key information

22.3%

Earnings growth rate

24.4%

EPS growth rate

Auto earnings growth	21.5%
Revenue growth rate	15.5%
Future return on equity	12.8%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	31 Jan 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

FSD, Robotics, And AI: Looking Past Tesla's Earnings Numbers

Jan 30

YTSL:CA: 12% Yield Can Offer Downside Protection For Tesla Stock Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Jan 24

Can Tesla's Core Business Support Valuation As Energy, Robotaxi Revenues Ramp Up?

Dec 24

Reverse-Engineering Tesla's $1.5T Valuation

Dec 18

There's Reason For Concern Over Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Massive 27% Price Jump

Dec 13

Tesla: Declining Sales Growth And Potential Margin Compression

Dec 11

Tesla: Downgrade To Hold After 38% Gain In 9 Weeks (Technical Analysis)

Nov 30

Will Tesla Benefit If $7,500 EV Tax Credit Cancelled?

Nov 18

Tesla: When Fundamentals Don't Matter (Rating Downgrade)

Nov 12

Do Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Nov 12

Tesla Has Too Many Issues To Make For A Solid Investment

Nov 04

'There Are Some Horses': Maintaining Tesla With A Buy

Oct 27

Wall Street Brunch: Tesla Earnings Steal The Spotlight

Oct 20

The Return Trends At Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Look Promising

Oct 19

Tesla: Fading Robotaxi Hype (Rating Downgrade)

Oct 14

Tesla Stock: We, Are Selling (Rating Downgrade)

Oct 07

Tesla: Time To Cash Out Before Robotaxi Event (Rating Downgrade)

Sep 30

Earnings Not Telling The Story For Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) After Shares Rise 27%

Sep 28

Tesla: A Weak Hold Ahead Of The Robotaxi Event

Sep 23

Tesla: Fierce Chinese Competition May Hold The Stock Back

Sep 16

Is Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) A Risky Investment?

Sep 12

Interest Rate Cuts, Layoffs, And Tesla's Stock: What's Next For Investors? (Technical Analysis)

Sep 10

Tesla's Robotaxi Lead Is Questionable; It Takes More Than Tech

Aug 30

Tesla: What If 4680 Battery Team Fails To Deliver By 2024

Aug 19

Tesla: Brilliant AI-Driven Robotaxi Model, But Not Today

Aug 13

Insights Into Tesla's Trillion-Dollar Robotaxi Question From Elon Musk

Aug 05

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

Jul 31

Tesla: Stagnating Core Business And Unclear Non-Core Potential Make It Unattractive

Jul 29

Tesla: A Significant Shift In Risk/Reward Calls For A Pre-Earnings Downgrade

Jul 23

Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Shares Climb 44% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Jul 17

Tesla's Q2 Deliveries Strong, But What's To Come?

Jul 16

Tesla: A Strong Buy Despite The Massive Rally

Jul 08

Date Your Stocks, Don't Marry Them - Jonah Lupton

Jul 01

Tesla: 2024 Is Not A BEV Year (Rating Downgrade)

Jun 24

Tesla: Back In The Game With Musk Re-Engaged

Jun 16

Tesla: Sell Into Strength Signals (Technical Analysis Update)

Jun 10

Tesla: $570 Billion Market Cap Should Shrink As Expectations Are Unmet

Jun 03

Tesla's iPhone Moment

May 28

Victor Dergunov Talks Amazing AI Run, Rolling Corrections, EV Space And Gold

May 22

Tesla: Don't Bet Your House On Recovery

May 13

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:TSLA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027	154,494	14,478	12,022	22,229	15
12/31/2026	134,650	12,407	8,342	18,991	40
12/31/2025	112,604	9,695	6,285	15,784	43
12/31/2024	97,690	7,130	3,581	14,923	N/A
9/30/2024	97,150	12,743	3,610	14,479	N/A
6/30/2024	95,318	12,427	1,717	11,532	N/A
3/31/2024	94,745	13,652	1,382	10,985	N/A
12/31/2023	96,773	14,999	4,357	13,256	N/A
9/30/2023	95,924	10,794	3,714	12,164	N/A
6/30/2023	94,028	12,235	6,162	13,956	N/A
3/31/2023	86,035	11,788	5,778	13,242	N/A
12/31/2022	81,462	12,583	7,552	14,724	N/A
9/30/2022	74,863	11,187	8,903	16,031	N/A
6/30/2022	67,166	9,513	6,928	14,078	N/A
3/31/2022	62,190	8,399	6,916	13,851	N/A
12/31/2021	53,823	5,524	4,983	11,497	N/A
9/30/2021	46,848	3,468	4,062	9,931	N/A
6/30/2021	41,862	2,150	4,114	9,184	N/A
3/31/2021	35,940	1,112	3,903	8,024	N/A
12/31/2020	31,536	690	2,701	5,943	N/A
9/30/2020	28,176	525	1,827	4,349	N/A
6/30/2020	25,708	368	799	2,705	N/A
3/31/2020	26,022	-144	992	2,605	N/A
12/31/2019	24,578	-870	968	2,405	N/A
9/30/2019	24,420	-835	873	2,215	N/A
6/30/2019	24,941	-667	1,359	2,850	N/A
3/31/2019	22,593	-976	-39	1,856	N/A
12/31/2018	21,461	-976	-221	2,098	N/A
9/30/2018	17,523	-1,791	N/A	1,373	N/A
6/30/2018	13,684	-2,722	N/A	-319	N/A
3/31/2018	12,471	-2,341	N/A	-389	N/A
12/31/2017	11,759	-1,962	N/A	-61	N/A
9/30/2017	10,755	-1,407	N/A	-1,019	N/A
6/30/2017	10,069	-766	N/A	-295	N/A
3/31/2017	8,549	-723	N/A	56	N/A
12/31/2016	7,000	-675	N/A	-124	N/A
9/30/2016	5,930	-874	N/A	295	N/A
6/30/2016	4,568	-1,126	N/A	-332	N/A
3/31/2016	4,253	-1,017	N/A	-642	N/A
12/31/2015	4,046	-889	N/A	-524	N/A
9/30/2015	3,788	-676	N/A	-581	N/A
6/30/2015	3,703	-521	N/A	-406	N/A
3/31/2015	3,518	-398	N/A	-248	N/A
12/31/2014	3,198	-294	N/A	-57	N/A
9/30/2014	2,857	-203	N/A	163	N/A
6/30/2014	2,436	-166	N/A	293	N/A
3/31/2014	2,072	-135	N/A	259	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TSLA's forecast earnings growth (22.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: TSLA's earnings (22.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TSLA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TSLA's revenue (15.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TSLA's revenue (15.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TSLA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/02/01 14:44
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tesla, Inc. is covered by 94 analysts. 43 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
William Selesky	Argus Research Company
Theodore O'Neill	Ascendiant Capital Markets LLC
Benjamin Kallo	Baird