Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) After Its First-Quarter Results

Shareholders of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$10.27 following its latest quarterly results. Revenue of US$1.2b came in 3.2% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$1.48, a 16% miss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive

Taking into account the latest results, the 22 analysts covering Rivian Automotive provided consensus estimates of US$4.78b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 4.0% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 14% from last year to US$4.80. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.87b and losses of US$4.80 per share in 2024.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$16.00, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Rivian Automotive, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$36.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rivian Automotive's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 106% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. It's pretty clear that Rivian Automotive's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Rivian Automotive's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Rivian Automotive going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Rivian Automotive that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.