Rivian Automotive Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Rivian Automotive is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 23.3% and 33.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 27.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -53.7% in 3 years.
Key information
23.3%
Earnings growth rate
27.32%
EPS growth rate
| Auto earnings growth | 36.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 33.3% |
| Future return on equity | -53.69% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 14
Rivian: Financial Turnaround Makes This Less A Clear Sell (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Many years ago, in 2021, I covered Rivian Automotive and rated it a sell because it traded at a truly extreme valuation while doing almost no business. Specifically, I compared the stock at that time to Pets.com, a stock that went bust in the dotcom bubble. The rating performed spectacularly well, with Rivian down 86% between its level on the date my article published and this past Friday. However, the company's unit economics are actually improving quite a bit, and its stock no longer trades at optically high multiples. For the reasons outlined above, I'm upgrading my Rivian rating to hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 14
RIVN: Autonomy Partnerships And Software Progress Will Shape Future Multiple
Rivian Automotive's updated analyst price target reflects a modest uplift of about $0.40 per share to roughly $19.23, as analysts factor in recent funding deals, improved gross margins, and early positive sentiment around the R2 lineup, while still watching the path to sustained profitability. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rivian Automotive points to a mix of optimism and caution.Narrative Update • Jul 31
RIVN: Autonomy Partnerships And Improved Deliveries Will Shape Future Multiple
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has shifted higher by about $0.70 to reflect updated views on fair value, modestly lower discount rate assumptions, slightly adjusted revenue growth and margin expectations, and a reduced future P/E multiple. Analysts point to factors such as an improved delivery outlook, a smoother R2 launch, and expanding partnerships in autonomy as key supports for this change.
Narrative Update • Jul 16
RIVN: Capital Raises And Cash Burn Will Continue To Pressure Shares
Rivian Automotive's analyst fair value estimate has moved from $9.63 to $13.00 as analysts factor in recent Q2 deliveries strength, updated unit forecasts, and multiple price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Rivian Automotive highlights a mixed setup, with several firms adjusting price targets as they react to delivery data, partnership announcements, and broader views on the electric vehicle sector.Narrative Update • Jul 02
RIVN: Ongoing Losses Will Persist Despite Autonomy Plans And Production Ramp
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has moved slightly higher, with the new consensus figure up by about $1, as analysts cite refined fair value estimates, a marginally lower discount rate, and modest adjustments to revenue growth and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rivian Automotive shows a mix of cautious and slightly more constructive views, with some Bearish analysts trimming price targets while others make only modest upward adjustments tied to revised fair value work.Narrative Update • Jun 18
RIVN: Ongoing Losses Will Outweigh Partnerships And New Production Plans
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has moved modestly higher, with the change tied to updated views on its revenue outlook, profit trajectory, and a slightly lower assumed discount rate, as several firms highlight recent valuation resets, mixed target revisions of around $1 to $2, and incremental positives from partnerships and relative positioning in the EV sector. Analyst Commentary on Rivian Automotive Recent commentary on Rivian Automotive reflects a mix of cautious and constructive views, with several firms adjusting price targets by small increments and reassessing ratings after the stock's prior selloff.Analysis Article • Jun 17
Rivian (RIVN) Stock Could Be 10.4% Undervalued After R2 Deliveries Begin
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is back in focus after beginning deliveries of its R2 SUV while aligning with partners like AT&T and ChargeScape, moves that collectively broaden its reach and technology footprint. See our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive. Rivian Automotive’s recent news around R2 deliveries, ChargeScape participation, workforce reductions and an autonomy roadmap has come alongside a 1‑month share price return of 21.8%, while the year to date share price return has fallen 16.2%...Narrative Update • Jun 04
RIVN: Autonomy Partnerships And R2 Platform Execution Will Shape Future Multiple
Narrative Update Rivian's analyst price target framework has shifted to a fair value of $18.15 from $16.96. This reflects analysts' updated views on revenue potential, profitability trajectory and risk after a mix of recent target changes and rating moves across the Street.Narrative Update • May 20
RIVN: Future Losses And Cash Burn Will Overshadow R2 Platform Progress
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate on Rivian higher, with the implied long term price target moving from about $9.06 to around $9.42. This reflects slightly stronger revenue growth expectations, a modestly lower discount rate, and a reduced future P/E assumption, despite largely unchanged long run profit margin estimates.
Narrative Update • May 03
RIVN: Future Upside Will Depend On Partnerships And Autonomous Vehicle Execution
Analysts kept the base fair value estimate for Rivian at $25.00 but trimmed their price targets slightly as they incorporated higher discount rates, modestly softer growth and margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple. This reflects a mix of cautious sector views, concern over EV adoption trends, and incremental positives from product launches and partnerships.Narrative Update • Apr 18
RIVN: Future Upside Will Depend On Partnerships And New Platform Execution
Analysts kept the $25 price target for Rivian unchanged, balancing mixed Street calls that highlight both cautious views on EV adoption and cash burn, as well as more constructive takes around the Uber partnership and potential R2 demand. At the same time, they modestly adjusted model inputs such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 03
RIVN: Autonomy Hopes Will Struggle Against Persistent Cash Burn And Losses
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has shifted slightly lower to $9.06 from $10.00, as analysts factor in higher projected losses, a more cautious profit margin, and a higher future P/E assumption, partially offset by stronger expected revenue growth and modestly positive readthroughs from recent research on the Uber partnership and upcoming R2 launch. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Rivian shows a split tape of opinions, with some firms leaning more constructive on long term potential and others sharpening their focus on execution risks, cash burn, and valuation.Narrative Update • Mar 20
RIVN: Future Upside Will Depend On Autonomous Partnership Execution
Rivian's analyst price target framework holds fair value steady at $25.00, with recent Street research reflecting a mix of higher targets tied to R2 demand potential and partnership momentum, alongside more cautious views focused on EV adoption, profitability timing, and execution risk. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rivian shows a wide range of views, but there is a clear cluster of bullish analysts who are leaning into the R2 launch, partnership traction, and execution progress, while others highlight EV adoption risk, capital intensity, and the timing of any benefit from new models.Narrative Update • Mar 06
RIVN: Future Fair Value Upside Will Depend On R2 Execution
Our Rivian Automotive fair value estimate remains at $25, as analysts balance lower Street price targets in the $9 to $20 range tied to concerns about EV adoption, R2 ramp risks, and larger projected losses, with more supportive views citing recent progress on execution and the R2 launch. Analyst Commentary Street research on Rivian is split, with several firms highlighting risks around EV adoption, R2 execution, and projected losses, while more constructive voices focus on recent product milestones and valuation reset.Narrative Update • Feb 20
RIVN: Higher Fair Value Estimate Will Hinge On Execution Risk
The analyst fair value estimate for Rivian Automotive has been lifted from $19.89 to $25.00, reflecting updated assumptions for faster revenue growth, a slightly lower discount rate, and Street research that views recent Q4 progress and the R2 launch as supportive, despite ongoing concerns about execution and R2 ramp risks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Rivian Automotive reflects a split view, with some bullish analysts highlighting progress around the Q4 update and the R2 launch, while more cautious voices focus on execution risks, cash burn, and the challenge of scaling without the support of tax credits or a traditional dealer network.Narrative Update • Feb 06
RIVN: Autonomy Roadmap And VW Partnership Will Support Future Multiple
Narrative Update Analysts now see Rivian Automotive's fair value at about $16.96 per share, up from roughly $16.67. They factor in a higher discount rate, slightly lower long term revenue growth and profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, reflecting mixed views from recent downgrades and price target increases.Narrative Update • Jan 22
RIVN: Autonomy Enthusiasm Will Clash With Mounting Losses And Cash Burn
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Rivian Automotive from $7.81 to $10.00 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around higher long term revenue growth, a slightly richer future P/E, and a modestly lower discount rate, while still factoring in concerns about cash burn, margin pressure, and execution risk highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mixed but increasingly cautious tone toward Rivian Automotive, with several bearish analysts reassessing the balance between long term growth potential and near term execution and funding risks.Analysis Article • Jan 18
The Price Is Right For Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) Even After Diving 26%
The Rivian Automotive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) share price has softened a substantial 26% over the previous 30 days...Narrative Update • Jan 08
RIVN: Expiring EV Incentives Will Threaten Demand Despite Higher Future Multiple
Narrative Update Analysts have nudged our Rivian Automotive fair value estimate up from $15.75 to about $16.67. They cite a blend of updated Street price targets, modestly higher assumed future P/E, slightly improved long term margin assumptions, and a lower discount rate, even as revenue growth expectations remain broadly similar.Narrative Update • Dec 15
RIVN: Expiring EV Incentives Will Pressure Demand And Future Profitability
Analysts modestly raised our Rivian Automotive fair value estimate from $14.83 to $15.75 per share, reflecting a slightly lower discount rate, somewhat softer long term growth and margin assumptions, and a higher expected future P/E multiple, as Street research highlights Rivian's positioning to capture ongoing but more selective electric vehicle demand. Analyst Commentary Street research on Rivian remains divided, with recent target price changes and rating moves underscoring both meaningful upside potential and tangible execution risks.Narrative Update • Dec 01
RIVN: Expiring Incentives And Cost Cuts Will Challenge Upcoming Performance
Rivian Automotive’s analyst price target increased modestly, rising as much as $4 from prior forecasts. Analysts point to the company’s strategic position in the electric vehicle market along with adjustments in industry demand and production trends.Narrative Update • Nov 17
RIVN: Near-Term Demand Shifts And Industry Tailwinds Will Shape Future Performance
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has increased modestly from $14.35 to $14.79. This change reflects analysts' expectations for improved revenue growth in the electric vehicle sector and ongoing long-term demand, despite near-term market challenges.Analysis Article • Nov 11
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:RIVN) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce
Rivian Automotive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in...Narrative Update • Nov 01
RIVN: Sector Headwinds And Product Updates Will Shape Medium-Term Outlook
Rivian Automotive's fair value estimate has edged down slightly to $14.35 from $14.48 per share. Analysts have factored in softer electric vehicle demand, updated delivery forecasts, and mixed industry tailwinds in their revised price targets.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Accelerated EV Adoption And Vertical Integration Will Drive Efficient Manufacturing
Rivian Automotive's analyst price target has seen a modest increase, rising to approximately $14.48 as analysts point to improved U.S. vehicle sales forecasts and resilient demand outlooks. These factors are supporting a slightly higher valuation.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Accelerated EV Adoption And Vertical Integration Will Drive Efficient Manufacturing
Rivian Automotive’s analyst price target has risen modestly, with consensus fair value estimates increasing by $0.22 to $14.26 per share. Analysts cite stronger U.S. auto demand and resilient electric vehicle sales as key supporting factors.Narrative Update • Sep 19
Accelerated EV Adoption And Vertical Integration Will Drive Efficient Manufacturing
Rivian’s modest price target increase to $14.04 reflects cautious optimism as bearish analysts cite softening demand, regulatory headwinds, and tariff risks, while bullish analysts see cost reductions and upcoming product catalysts as balancing factors. Analyst Commentary Lowered EBITDA guidance and removal of regulatory credits have led to downward price target revisions, though earnings estimates may be approaching a bottom.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Accelerated EV Adoption And Vertical Integration Will Drive Efficient Manufacturing
Rivian’s consensus analyst price target held steady at $13.94 as market caution persists due to weakened EV demand, U.S. policy headwinds, and lower earnings guidance, partially offset by optimism around new product launches and autonomy initiatives. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite ongoing softness in R1 vehicle demand and lower confidence in R2 and R3 volume and ASP assumptions due to weakened long-term market outlooks.Seeking Alpha • Apr 14
Rivian: All Eyes On Gross Margin For Upcoming Earnings
Summary Rivian’s upcoming quarterly earnings should give good insight about the potential of future margin and revenue expansion. Rivian recently announced first quarter deliveries of 8,640 which was a 36% YoY decline but above the consensus analyst's estimate of 8,200. The trade war and brand backlash for Tesla could increase significantly over the next few months, which should help Rivian build a better growth momentum. Rivian has enough cash buffer to absorb any near-term headwinds, and this puts it in a better spot than many other bigger automakers. The stock is trading at only 0.63 times the sales estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2028, and good gross margin improvement could boost the forward multiple. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 05
Rivian And Its Broken Risk-To-Reward
Summary Rivian's rapid expansion and strategic moves are commendable, but the current risk-reward profile makes it a “Hold” rather than a “Buy”. Despite positive Q4 results and improved gross profit margins, Rivian faces challenges with lower delivery expectations and heavy operating losses in 1H 2025. The Software and Services segment shows promise, but the Automotive segment's growth rate is uncertain, likely leading to downward EBITDA projections. Rivian's valuation remains unsustainably high, necessitating a significant drop in the EV/Sales ratio to align with legacy automakers and peers like NIO. I see kind of a broken risk-to-reward setup for those who are willing to buy RIVN on its prolonged dip. I think better times for that will come—for now, Rivian is a “Hold” for me. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 31
Rivian: A Quiet Turnaround With The Software Segment In The Driver's Seat
Summary Rivian’s U.S. manufacturing limits its exposure to the 25% tariffs. That said, I expect some margin pressures from imported components sourced through Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers. I expect a strong upside from the software segment, which could deliver $1B in revenue (at a 30% gross margin) this year alone. Risks include regulatory risks, especially if the $7,500 EV credit and regulatory credits are eliminated, which could cut into 2025 revenue. I consider RIVN stock a speculative buy based on improving margins, growing software revenue, and undervalued long-term potential ahead of the R2 launch in 2026. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 24
Rivian Automotive Plays Second Fiddle In The EV Space
Summary Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s stock has significantly underperformed the broader market, despite some improvements in revenue and reduced cash outflows. The company's recent revenue growth is largely driven by automotive regulatory credits, masking underlying issues in vehicle deliveries and production. Despite liquidity from deals with Volkswagen and the US Department of Energy, Rivian's future production delays and high cash outflows remain concerning. Better investment alternatives exist with more stable financials and market share in the electric vehicle space, justifying a continued "sell" rating for RIVN stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 06
Rivian: Cash & Investments Account For 61% Of Market Value
Summary Rivian Automotive posted a positive gross profit in Q4 2024, driven by $260 million in regulatory credit sales and lower production costs. Despite a disappointing 2025 delivery forecast, Rivian's strong balance sheet with $7.7 billion in cash and a $6.6 billion government loan ensures funding security. Rivian's valuation is attractive at 1.7x sales, significantly lower than Tesla's 7.3x, offering a better risk/reward ratio. The investment thesis is supported by Rivian's robust capital position, potential for re-rating, and competitive edge in the U.S. electric vehicle market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 25
Rivian Stock Could Show A Big Boost As Tesla's Brand Image Suffers
Summary Rivian reported robust earnings beating EPS and revenue estimates, but it gave a modest forward projection due to macro uncertainty. Rivian has finally achieved quarterly gross profit and we could see further margin expansion. Rivian’s Software and Services segment doubled revenue to $217 million and also increased the gross profit in this segment. Tesla is facing some brand image challenges as reported by FT, NYT and other third-party estimates which can end up being a strong tailwind for Rivian’s demand and margin outlook. The consensus revenue estimate show strong growth trajectory with a 43% growth for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and another 68% revenue growth for fiscal year ending Dec 2027. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 19
Rivian Q4 Earnings Preview: What's At Stake
Summary Rivian's Q4 earnings report is critical, with a DOE loan and Volkswagen investments at risk depending on Gross Profit results, and with only 18 months of cash runway remaining. RIVN exceeded Q4 delivery expectations but needs to show stronger gross profit metrics and secure more capital to sustain growth. The partnership with Volkswagen is crucial, providing manufacturing knowledge and cash, but Rivian's overvaluation on key metrics remains a concern. The DOE loan's status under the new administration is uncertain; securing it is vital for Rivian's future manufacturing and delivery capabilities. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 15,606 | -2,760 | -1,982 | 343 | 17 |
| 12/31/2027 | 11,780 | -3,164 | -3,101 | -448 | 23 |
| 12/31/2026 | 7,443 | -3,397 | -4,348 | -2,742 | 23 |
| 6/30/2026 | 5,883 | -3,233 | -3,489 | -1,845 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 5,528 | -3,517 | -3,038 | -1,294 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 5,387 | -3,646 | -2,489 | -779 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 5,835 | -3,579 | -489 | 1,085 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 5,151 | -3,506 | -1,221 | 183 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 5,006 | -3,846 | -1,860 | -635 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 4,970 | -4,747 | -2,857 | -1,716 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 4,551 | -5,524 | -5,118 | -4,006 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 5,014 | -5,791 | -5,032 | -4,007 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 4,977 | -5,529 | -5,611 | -4,614 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 4,434 | -5,432 | -5,892 | -4,866 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 3,782 | -5,634 | -6,227 | -5,205 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,981 | -5,991 | -6,826 | -5,696 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,224 | -6,508 | -6,773 | -5,539 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,658 | -6,752 | -6,421 | -5,052 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,049 | -7,490 | -6,223 | -4,692 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 514 | -6,999 | -5,709 | -4,009 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 150 | -5,867 | -5,066 | -3,294 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 55 | -4,688 | -4,416 | -2,622 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 1 | -2,581 | -3,448 | -1,804 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | N/A | -1,636 | -2,731 | -1,347 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | N/A | -1,244 | -2,187 | -1,034 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | N/A | -1,019 | -1,762 | -848 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: RIVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: RIVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: RIVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: RIVN's revenue (33.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.3% per year).
High Growth Revenue: RIVN's revenue (33.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: RIVN is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/16 23:18 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Benjamin Kallo | Baird |
| Dan Levy | Barclays |
| James Picariello | BNP Paribas |