Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares plunged 21% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at US$11.45. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$5.0b beating forecasts by 6.3%. Statutory losses of US$4.69 per share were roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Rivian Automotive's 27 analysts is for revenues of US$5.34b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 13% from last year to US$3.64. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$5.17b and US$3.55 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Rivian Automotive after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.04, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Rivian Automotive, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$23.00 and the most bearish at US$6.10 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Rivian Automotive's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 67% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Rivian Automotive is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Rivian Automotive. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Rivian Automotive analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Rivian Automotive that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.