Nobia (OM:NOBI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of NOBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NOBI (SEK27.66) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK401.95)

NOBI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

NOBI Stock Overview

Nobia AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells kitchen solutions to consumer and professional customers.

Rewards

Trading at 93.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.57% per year

Earnings grew by 136.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 9.04% is not well covered by earnings

Nobia Competitors

Embellence Group

OM:EMBELL

kr652.7m

Profoto Holding

OM:PRFO

kr4.2b

Duni

OM:DUNI

kr3.9b

Bonava

OM:BONAV B

kr3.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Nobia
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr27.66
52 Week High	kr81.50
52 Week Low	kr26.78
Beta	1.38
1 Month Change	-15.00%
3 Month Change	-33.09%
1 Year Change	-63.77%
3 Year Change	-48.30%
5 Year Change	-68.21%
Change since IPO	16.87%

Shareholder Returns

	NOBI	SE Consumer Durables	SE Market
7D	-4.8%	-1.5%	-3.0%
1Y	-63.8%	-44.7%	-24.9%

Return vs Industry: NOBI underperformed the Swedish Consumer Durables industry which returned -44% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NOBI underperformed the Swedish Market which returned -24.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NOBI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NOBI volatility
NOBI Average Weekly Movement	5.9%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	5.6%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.5%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: NOBI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NOBI's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1996	6,282	Jon Sintorn	https://www.nobia.com

Nobia AB (publ) develops, manufactures, and sells kitchen solutions to consumer and professional customers. The company offers cabinets, drawers, fronts, panels, bases, cabinet fixtures, worktops, sinks, mixer taps, appliances, kitchen fans, handles, and others. It sells its products under various brands, including A la Carte, Bribus, Commodore & CIE, ewe, FM, Gower, HTH, INTUO, Invita, Magnet, Marbodal, Norema, Petra, Rixonway Kitchens, Sigdal, and uno form brands.

Nobia Fundamentals Summary

How do Nobia's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NOBI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr4.65b
Earnings (TTM)	kr702.00m
Revenue (TTM)	kr14.13b

6.6x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is NOBI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NOBI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr14.13b
Cost of Revenue	kr8.68b
Gross Profit	kr5.44b
Other Expenses	kr4.74b
Earnings	kr702.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 19, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.17
Gross Margin	38.53%
Net Profit Margin	4.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.7%

How did NOBI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

9.0%

Current Dividend Yield

60%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NOBI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOBI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for NOBI. This is calculated by dividing NOBI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is NOBI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr4.65b

NOBI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.3x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOBI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NOBI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOBI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17x
EMBELL Embellence Group	9.5x	8.8%	kr652.7m
PRFO Profoto Holding	25.1x	14.0%	kr4.2b
DUNI Duni	29.6x	n/a	kr3.9b
BONAV B Bonava	3.6x	0.6%	kr3.2b
NOBI Nobia	6.6x	10.6%	kr4.7b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the peer average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOBI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the Swedish Consumer Durables industry average (9.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOBI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOBI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.6x
Fair PE Ratio	16.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOBI (SEK27.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK401.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOBI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: NOBI is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)

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Future Growth

How is Nobia forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NOBI's forecast earnings growth (10.6% per year) is above the savings rate (0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: NOBI's earnings (10.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (9.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NOBI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NOBI's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Swedish market (5.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NOBI's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NOBI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Nobia performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-16.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NOBI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NOBI's current net profit margins (5%) are higher than last year (2.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NOBI's earnings have declined by 16.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NOBI's earnings growth over the past year (136.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-16.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NOBI earnings growth over the past year (136.4%) exceeded the Consumer Durables industry 22.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: NOBI's Return on Equity (13.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Nobia's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NOBI's short term assets (SEK4.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK3.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: NOBI's short term assets (SEK4.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (SEK3.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NOBI's net debt to equity ratio (11.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: NOBI's debt to equity ratio has increased from 22.2% to 38.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NOBI's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (76%).

Interest Coverage: NOBI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Nobia current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

9.04%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NOBI's dividend (9.04%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.62%).

High Dividend: NOBI's dividend (9.04%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.42%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NOBI has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: NOBI's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (60%), NOBI's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (142.1%), NOBI's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jon Sintorn (56 yo)

2.83yrs

Tenure

kr15,190,000

Compensation

Mr. Jon Sintorn has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Nobia AB (publ) since September 1, 2019. He Joined Nobia AB (publ) in 2019. He served as Global head of Cooling at DeLaval and held Various...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Jon's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the Swedish market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Jon's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NOBI's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NOBI's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NOBI insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31