Is Nobia AB (publ) (STO:NOBI) Potentially Undervalued?

While Nobia AB (publ) (STO:NOBI) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the OM over the last few months, increasing to kr20.02 at one point, and dropping to the lows of kr10.94. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Nobia's current trading price of kr10.94 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Nobia’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out our latest analysis for Nobia

What Is Nobia Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 19% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Nobia today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth SEK13.46, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Nobia’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Nobia?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Nobia, it is expected to deliver a negative revenue growth of -2.5% over the next couple of years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? NOBI seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on NOBI for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on NOBI should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Nobia has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.

If you are no longer interested in Nobia, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.