Stock Analysis

Moncler's (BIT:MONC) investors will be pleased with their respectable 75% return over the last five years

BIT:MONC
Source: Shutterstock

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term Moncler S.p.A. (BIT:MONC) shareholders have enjoyed a 66% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market decline of around 8.6% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 6.9% in the last year, including dividends.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Moncler

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Moncler achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 11% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
BIT:MONC Earnings Per Share Growth February 12th 2025

We know that Moncler has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Moncler's TSR for the last 5 years was 75%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Moncler shareholders are up 6.9% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 12% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Moncler scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About BIT:MONC

Moncler

Designs, produces, and distributes clothing and related accessories for men, women, and children under the Moncler and Stone Island brand names in Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.

Outstanding track record with flawless balance sheet.

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