China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (SEHK:81) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 81 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

81 (HK$3.98) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$6.5)

81 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

81 Stock Overview

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and leases real estate properties in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 38.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 6.55% per year

Earnings grew by 15.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 9.07% is not well covered by earnings

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Competitors

Midea Real Estate Holding

SEHK:3990

HK$15.3b

Huijing Holdings

SEHK:9968

HK$9.5b

Redsun Properties Group

SEHK:1996

HK$8.5b

Logan Group

SEHK:3380

HK$12.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$3.98
52 Week High	HK$5.34
52 Week Low	HK$3.33
Beta	0.80
1 Month Change	-0.50%
3 Month Change	-13.67%
1 Year Change	-12.34%
3 Year Change	12.43%
5 Year Change	-9.13%
Change since IPO	543.48%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 21

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HKG:81) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At HK$0.30

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited ( HKG:81 ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 16th...

Jun 15

Do China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's (HKG:81) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Apr 28

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HKG:81) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To HK$0.30

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited's ( HKG:81 ) dividend will be increasing to HK$0.30 on 16th of August. This...

Shareholder Returns

	81	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	-4.1%	4.3%	2.1%
1Y	-12.3%	-34.5%	-23.3%

Return vs Industry: 81 exceeded the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -34.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 81 exceeded the Hong Kong Market which returned -23.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 81's price volatile compared to industry and market?
81 volatility
81 Average Weekly Movement	6.3%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.3%
Market Average Movement	7.0%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.8%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 81 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 81's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1955	3,505	Lin Yang	https://www.cogogl.com.hk

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and leases real estate properties in the People’s Republic of China. It operates through Property Investment and Development, Property Leasing, and Other segments. The Property Investment and Development segment constructs residential and commercial properties.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Fundamentals Summary

How do China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
81 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥11.61b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥5.05b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥53.83b

2.3x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 81 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
81 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥53.83b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥41.43b
Gross Profit	CN¥12.40b
Other Expenses	CN¥7.35b
Earnings	CN¥5.05b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.48
Gross Margin	23.03%
Net Profit Margin	9.38%
Debt/Equity Ratio	134.9%

How did 81 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

9.1%

Current Dividend Yield

21%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 81 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 81?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 81. This is calculated by dividing 81's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 81's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥11.61b

81 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 81's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

81 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 81 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.5x
3990 Midea Real Estate Holding	3.5x	10.9%	HK$15.3b
9968 Huijing Holdings	31.6x	n/a	HK$9.5b
1996 Redsun Properties Group	5.8x	20.5%	HK$8.5b
3380 Logan Group	1.1x	2.7%	HK$12.3b
81 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group	2.3x	6.5%	HK$13.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 81 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 81's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 81 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 81's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

81 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	2.3x
Fair PE Ratio	5.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 81 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 81 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 81 (HK$3.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$6.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 81 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 81 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.4x)

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Future Growth

How is China Overseas Grand Oceans Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

6.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 81's forecast earnings growth (6.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.5%).

Earnings vs Market: 81's earnings (6.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 81's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 81's revenue (11.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (10.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 81's revenue (11.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 81's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.3%).

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Past Performance

How has China Overseas Grand Oceans Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

36.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 81 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 81's current net profit margins (9.4%) are lower than last year (10.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 81's earnings have grown significantly by 36.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 81's earnings growth over the past year (15.4%) is below its 5-year average (36.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 81 earnings growth over the past year (15.4%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 13.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 81's Return on Equity (15.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 81's short term assets (CN¥190.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥127.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: 81's short term assets (CN¥190.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥35.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 81's net debt to equity ratio (79.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 81's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 284.5% to 134.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 81's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: 81 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China Overseas Grand Oceans Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

9.07%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 81's dividend (9.07%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.75%).

High Dividend: 81's dividend (9.07%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.9%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 81's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 81's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (21%), 81's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: 81 is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Lin Yang (48 yo)

2.33yrs

Tenure

CN¥7,151,000

Compensation

Mr. Lin Yang has been Chief Executive Officer at China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited since February 11, 2020. Mr. Yang has been Executive Director of China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited since M...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Lin's total compensation ($USD1.07M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD580.03K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Lin's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 81's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 81's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31