The China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Investors in China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at HK$4.54 following the release of its annual results. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥54b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.48, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥63.3b in 2022, which would reflect a solid 18% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 9.1% to CN¥1.61. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥62.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.65 in 2022. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of HK$6.30, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Overseas Grand Oceans Group at HK$6.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$5.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.