China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HKG:81) Will Pay A Smaller Dividend Than Last Year

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited's (HKG:81) dividend is being reduced from last year's payment covering the same period to CN¥0.06 on the 19th of October. The dividend yield of 9.7% is still a nice boost to shareholder returns, despite the cut.

See our latest analysis for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group is quite easily earning enough to cover the dividend, however it is being let down by weak cash flows. We think that cash flows should take priority over earnings, so this is definitely a worry for the dividend going forward.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to fall by 4.7% over the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could be 38%, which we consider to be quite comfortable, with most of the company's earnings left over to grow the business in the future.

Dividend Volatility

The company has a long dividend track record, but it doesn't look great with cuts in the past. The annual payment during the last 10 years was CN¥0.027 in 2012, and the most recent fiscal year payment was CN¥0.311. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28% a year over that time. It is great to see strong growth in the dividend payments, but cuts are concerning as it may indicate the payout policy is too ambitious.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group has seen EPS rising for the last five years, at 29% per annum. Earnings have been growing rapidly, and with a low payout ratio we think that the company could turn out to be a great dividend stock.

In Summary

Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. While the low payout ratio is redeeming feature, this is offset by the minimal cash to cover the payments. We don't think China Overseas Grand Oceans Group is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.