China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to HK$1.53 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of CN¥0.64 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit CN¥56b and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, is for revenues of CN¥48.0b in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 15% reduction in China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 12% to CN¥0.57 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥48.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.57 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$2.51, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Overseas Grand Oceans Group at HK$3.10 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$2.10. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - China Overseas Grand Oceans Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$2.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.