Logwin's (ETR:TGHN) three-year earnings growth trails the 36% YoY shareholder returns

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 05, 2022
XTRA:TGHN
Source: Shutterstock

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the Logwin AG (ETR:TGHN) share price is 135% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! Also pleasing for shareholders was the 26% gain in the last three months.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Logwin

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Logwin was able to grow its EPS at 17% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 33% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:TGHN Earnings Per Share Growth January 5th 2022

We know that Logwin has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Logwin will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Logwin's TSR for the last 3 years was 152%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Logwin shareholders have gained 100% (in total) over the last year. That's including the dividend. So this year's TSR was actually better than the three-year TSR (annualized) of 36%. The improving returns to shareholders suggests the stock is becoming more popular with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Logwin (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

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