Keyera Corp. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

A week ago, Keyera Corp. (TSE:KEY) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 13% higher than the analysts had forecast, at CA$2.0b, while EPS were CA$0.81 beating analyst models by 37%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Keyera

Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering Keyera provided consensus estimates of CA$6.49b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a chunky 13% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 19% to CA$2.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$6.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.41 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$44.85, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Keyera's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Keyera analyst has a price target of CA$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$39.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Keyera's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Keyera's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$44.85, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Keyera going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Keyera is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.