Keyera Corp.

TSX:KEY Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$16.1b

Keyera Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Keyera is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 27.5% and 12% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18% in 3 years.

Key information

27.5%

Earnings growth rate

26.60%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.4%
Revenue growth rate12.0%
Future return on equity18.02%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated26 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 23

KEY: Balance Sheet Capacity Will Support Execution And Future Upside Potential

Keyera's updated fair value estimate has risen from CA$54.69 to CA$56.00, reflecting analysts' recent price target increases that highlight factors such as balance sheet capacity and modestly adjusted assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Keyera has focused on a series of higher price targets in the CA$54 to CA$58 range, with several firms reaffirming positive ratings on the shares.
Narrative Update • Apr 08

KEY: Balance Sheet Capacity And Execution Risk Will Guide Future Fairly Valued Returns

Narrative Update on Keyera The updated analyst price target for Keyera edges higher to CA$54.69 from CA$54.46, reflecting recent target increases across several firms, as analysts point to what they see as underappreciated balance sheet capacity and adjust their P/E and growth assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Keyera clusters around higher price targets, with several firms adjusting their models and only a few trimming expectations.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

KEY: Balance Sheet Capacity And Execution Risk Will Shape Future Fairly Valued Returns

Keyera's analyst price target is nudged higher as the model fair value edges up to CA$54.46. Analysts generally point to stronger perceived balance sheet capacity and a series of recent price target hikes across major firms.
Narrative Update • Mar 11

KEY: Balance Sheet Capacity And Execution Risk Will Guide Balanced Future Returns

Keyera's fair value estimate edges up to about CA$54.31 from CA$54, as analysts lift price targets into the CA$54 to CA$58 range. They cite underappreciated balance sheet capacity and reaffirmed positive ratings across multiple firms.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

KEY: Balance Sheet Capacity And Execution Risk Will Shape Future Share Performance

Analysts have nudged their average fair value estimate for Keyera higher to CA$54.00 from CA$51.69, citing a series of recent CA$1 to CA$7 price target increases across major firms that highlight what they see as underappreciated balance sheet capacity. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of price target changes around the low to high CA$50s, with several firms focusing on what they see as Keyera's financial flexibility and execution risk.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

KEY: Mixed Margin Outlook And Steady Assumptions Will Shape Future Share Performance

Narrative Update on Keyera The analyst price target for Keyera has shifted as recent Street research, including a C$2 reduction at TD Securities, a C$1 increase at Scotiabank, and a move to C$51 from C$54 at BMO Capital, reflects updated views on its profit margin outlook and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Keyera centers on how its profit margins and P/E assumptions line up with current valuation, with some analysts trimming targets and others nudging them higher.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

KEY: Execution On Projects And Cost Control Will Support Future Share Price Upside

Narrative Update on Keyera Our updated analyst price target for Keyera shifts slightly lower to about C$51.70 from roughly C$51.90. This reflects a mix of recent target cuts and raises from analysts who now factor in modestly adjusted growth, margin, discount rate, and P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

KEY: Revised Cash Flow Outlook Will Support Future Share Price Upside

Analysts have reduced their price target on Keyera to C$51 from C$54, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rates, revenue growth assumptions and expected P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show that analysts are adjusting their fair value views on Keyera, but still see a supportive backdrop for the stock relative to their rating stance.
Narrative Update • Dec 25

KEY: Higher Uptime Will Drive Stronger Q3 Earnings And Share Price Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Keyera by C$3 to C$45, citing expectations for sequentially stronger Q3 earnings and steady growth across the company’s core business. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts view the higher price target as supported by improving operational performance, particularly the anticipated sequential uplift in Q3 earnings driven by stronger uptime across base assets.
Narrative Update • Dec 11

KEY: Improved Asset Uptime Will Support Stronger Earnings And Share Price Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Keyera, with fair value estimates increasing from about C$50.71 to C$51.43. They cite expectations for sequential Q3 earnings improvement driven by higher base asset uptime and steady growth across the core business.
Analysis Article • Sep 15

Keyera Corp.'s (TSE:KEY) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.4x Keyera Corp. ( TSE:KEY ) may be sending bearish signals at the...
Analysis Article • Aug 31

Do Keyera's (TSE:KEY) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...
Analysis Article • Aug 10

Keyera (TSE:KEY) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of Keyera Corp. ( TSE:KEY ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend by 3.8% on the 30th of...
Analysis Article • Jun 13

Here's Why Keyera (TSE:KEY) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
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New Narrative • Nov 27

Unlocking Growth Potential With Innovative Expansion And Strategic Resilience

Advancements in growth projects and infrastructure could boost net capacity, revenue, and margins through increased demand and service expansion.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

TSX:KEY - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CAD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202811,2229171,2571,6935
12/31/202710,8208689571,6785
12/31/20268,6424144751,2055
3/31/20266,394180345931N/A
12/31/20256,854432279775N/A
9/30/20257,095431534801N/A
6/30/20257,269530640906N/A
3/31/20257,3785467831,033N/A
12/31/20247,1384871,0131,266N/A
9/30/20247,5044479461,180N/A
6/30/20247,0033408601,099N/A
3/31/20246,7843577831,062N/A
12/31/20237,053424273975N/A
9/30/20236,52729343879N/A
6/30/20236,782338-160817N/A
3/31/20237,160352-321780N/A
12/31/20227,06032829925N/A
9/30/20227,023500-8888N/A
6/30/20226,50144748859N/A
3/31/20225,65735257772N/A
12/31/20214,98532467584N/A
9/30/20213,957159207603N/A
6/30/20213,473123187592N/A
3/31/20212,97062213640N/A
12/31/20203,0136294688N/A
9/30/20203,288167-5785N/A
6/30/20203,41028877949N/A
3/31/20203,840494-32981N/A
12/31/20193,617444N/A888N/A
9/30/20193,774588N/A920N/A
6/30/20194,101468N/A730N/A
3/31/20194,218350N/A623N/A
12/31/20184,465403N/A604N/A
9/30/20184,350317N/A571N/A
6/30/20183,954321N/A583N/A
3/31/20183,654281N/A500N/A
12/31/20173,413290N/A514N/A
9/30/20173,080236N/A341N/A
6/30/20172,934250N/A398N/A
3/31/20172,743243N/A454N/A
12/31/20162,500217N/A413N/A
9/30/20162,429202N/A499N/A
6/30/20162,454260N/A480N/A
3/31/20162,477215N/A548N/A
12/31/20152,521202N/A648N/A
9/30/20152,837211N/A701N/A
6/30/20153,061184N/A638N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KEY's forecast earnings growth (27.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3%).

Earnings vs Market: KEY's earnings (27.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (11% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KEY's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KEY's revenue (12% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (4.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KEY's revenue (12% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KEY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/01 23:37
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/01 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Keyera Corp. is covered by 28 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan HeywoodATB Cormark
Brent WatsonATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Christopher TillettBarclays