Keyera Corp.

TSX:KEY Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$10.3b

Keyera Valuation

Is KEY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KEY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KEY (CA$45.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$60.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KEY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KEY?

Key metric: As KEY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KEY. This is calculated by dividing KEY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KEY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.1x
EarningsCA$446.91m
Market CapCA$10.34b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KEY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KEY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.7x
GEI Gibson Energy
17.7x9.9%CA$3.7b
PPL Pembina Pipeline
18.4x4.5%CA$34.0b
TRP TC Energy
14.1x-1.9%CA$71.7b
ENB Enbridge
20.6x9.0%CA$129.4b
KEY Keyera
23.1x8.4%CA$10.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KEY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-43.9%US$62.92m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.6xn/aUS$4.89m
KEY 23.1xIndustry Avg. 10.8xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KEY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KEY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.1x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KEY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$45.11
CA$44.85
-0.6%
7.4%CA$50.00CA$39.00n/a13
Nov ’25CA$42.96
CA$43.46
+1.2%
8.3%CA$48.00CA$38.00n/a13
Oct ’25CA$42.70
CA$41.33
-3.2%
7.1%CA$47.00CA$38.00n/a12
Sep ’25CA$40.37
CA$40.33
-0.09%
4.6%CA$44.00CA$38.00n/a12
Aug ’25CA$38.82
CA$38.75
-0.2%
6.5%CA$43.00CA$35.00n/a12
Jul ’25CA$37.89
CA$37.83
-0.1%
5.4%CA$41.00CA$35.00n/a12
Jun ’25CA$36.09
CA$38.07
+5.5%
5.2%CA$41.00CA$35.00n/a14
May ’25CA$34.68
CA$36.43
+5.0%
4.8%CA$39.00CA$34.00n/a14
Apr ’25CA$35.29
CA$36.36
+3.0%
4.6%CA$38.00CA$34.00n/a14
Mar ’25CA$33.64
CA$36.21
+7.7%
4.7%CA$38.00CA$34.00n/a14
Feb ’25CA$32.34
CA$35.85
+10.8%
4.6%CA$38.00CA$34.00n/a13
Jan ’25CA$32.03
CA$35.65
+11.3%
5.5%CA$38.50CA$33.00n/a13
Dec ’24CA$33.68
CA$35.38
+5.1%
6.2%CA$39.00CA$32.00n/a13
Nov ’24CA$32.49
CA$34.92
+7.5%
7.3%CA$39.00CA$30.00CA$42.9613
Oct ’24CA$31.89
CA$35.42
+11.1%
7.2%CA$39.00CA$30.00CA$42.7012
Sep ’24CA$33.78
CA$35.50
+5.1%
7.0%CA$39.00CA$30.00CA$40.3714
Aug ’24CA$32.77
CA$35.20
+7.4%
6.7%CA$38.00CA$30.00CA$38.8215
Jul ’24CA$30.55
CA$35.37
+15.8%
7.0%CA$39.00CA$30.00CA$37.8915
Jun ’24CA$30.63
CA$35.17
+14.8%
7.9%CA$39.00CA$30.00CA$36.0915
May ’24CA$31.71
CA$34.40
+8.5%
7.7%CA$39.50CA$30.00CA$34.6815
Apr ’24CA$29.59
CA$34.21
+15.6%
7.7%CA$39.50CA$30.00CA$35.2914
Mar ’24CA$30.21
CA$34.40
+13.9%
7.2%CA$39.50CA$30.00CA$33.6415
Feb ’24CA$30.11
CA$33.97
+12.8%
6.3%CA$36.00CA$30.00CA$32.3415
Jan ’24CA$29.59
CA$33.86
+14.4%
6.3%CA$36.00CA$30.00CA$32.0314
Dec ’23CA$31.36
CA$33.50
+6.8%
6.5%CA$36.00CA$29.00CA$33.6814
Nov ’23CA$29.03
CA$34.43
+18.6%
6.2%CA$38.00CA$30.00CA$32.4914

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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