Gibson Energy Inc.

TSX:GEI Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$3.7b

Gibson Energy Valuation

Is GEI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GEI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GEI (CA$22.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$42.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GEI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GEI?

Key metric: As GEI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GEI. This is calculated by dividing GEI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GEI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.7x
EarningsCA$211.04m
Market CapCA$3.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GEI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GEI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.4x
KEY Keyera
23.1x8.4%CA$10.3b
PPL Pembina Pipeline
18.4x4.5%CA$34.0b
TRP TC Energy
14.1x-1.9%CA$71.7b
TPZ Topaz Energy
70x4.2%CA$4.3b
GEI Gibson Energy
17.7x9.9%CA$3.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GEI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the peer average (31.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GEI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-43.9%US$62.92m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.6xn/aUS$4.89m
GEI 17.7xIndustry Avg. 10.8xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GEI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GEI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GEI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.7x
Fair PE Ratio12.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GEI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GEI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$22.99
CA$26.25
+14.2%
4.8%CA$28.50CA$25.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$22.95
CA$26.25
+14.4%
4.8%CA$28.50CA$25.00n/a12
Oct ’25CA$22.31
CA$25.86
+15.9%
3.5%CA$27.00CA$25.00n/a11
Sep ’25CA$22.24
CA$25.82
+16.1%
3.6%CA$27.00CA$25.00n/a11
Aug ’25CA$21.79
CA$25.73
+18.1%
3.7%CA$27.00CA$25.00n/a11
Jul ’25CA$23.25
CA$25.73
+10.7%
4.1%CA$27.00CA$24.00n/a11
Jun ’25CA$22.78
CA$25.54
+12.1%
3.6%CA$27.00CA$24.00n/a13
May ’25CA$22.11
CA$25.54
+15.5%
3.6%CA$27.00CA$24.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$22.99
CA$25.27
+9.9%
4.8%CA$27.00CA$22.50n/a13
Mar ’25CA$22.54
CA$24.96
+10.7%
6.7%CA$27.00CA$21.00n/a13
Feb ’25CA$21.43
CA$24.88
+16.1%
7.3%CA$27.00CA$21.00n/a12
Jan ’25CA$20.13
CA$25.25
+25.4%
5.6%CA$27.00CA$22.50n/a12
Dec ’24CA$20.53
CA$25.04
+22.0%
7.0%CA$27.00CA$21.00n/a12
Nov ’24CA$20.54
CA$24.96
+21.5%
7.0%CA$27.00CA$21.00CA$22.9512
Oct ’24CA$19.43
CA$25.17
+29.5%
7.9%CA$27.00CA$21.00CA$22.3112
Sep ’24CA$20.44
CA$25.32
+23.9%
7.1%CA$27.00CA$21.00CA$22.2414
Aug ’24CA$20.55
CA$25.43
+23.8%
6.8%CA$28.00CA$22.00CA$21.7915
Jul ’24CA$20.83
CA$25.57
+22.7%
6.9%CA$29.00CA$22.00CA$23.2515
Jun ’24CA$21.67
CA$25.11
+15.9%
5.3%CA$28.00CA$22.00CA$22.7814
May ’24CA$23.01
CA$25.07
+8.9%
4.7%CA$28.00CA$23.00CA$22.1115
Apr ’24CA$21.60
CA$25.29
+17.1%
5.0%CA$28.00CA$23.00CA$22.9914
Mar ’24CA$23.27
CA$25.47
+9.4%
4.9%CA$28.00CA$23.00CA$22.5415
Feb ’24CA$23.80
CA$25.50
+7.1%
5.3%CA$28.00CA$23.00CA$21.4315
Jan ’24CA$23.64
CA$25.39
+7.4%
5.7%CA$28.00CA$23.00CA$20.1314
Dec ’23CA$24.11
CA$25.32
+5.0%
6.7%CA$28.00CA$22.50CA$20.5314
Nov ’23CA$23.00
CA$25.39
+10.4%
6.3%CA$28.00CA$22.50CA$20.5414

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

International Petroleum

CA$1.7b

Explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas.

IPCO

CA$14.42

7D

-3.5%

1Y

4.3%

Precision Drilling

CA$1.2b

A drilling company, provides onshore drilling, completion, and production services to exploration and production companies in the oil and natural gas and geothermal industries in North America and the Middle East.

PD

CA$87.78

7D

-1.4%

1Y

7.1%

Trican Well Service

CA$886.6m

An equipment services company, provides various specialized products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells primarily in Canada.

TCW

CA$4.65

7D

-2.9%

1Y

8.9%