Notizie in diretta • May 21
Harmonic Drive Systems Holds Dividend as Profits Drop and Sales Outlook Brightens for FY2027 Harmonic Drive Systems reported a 7% year-on-year rise in net sales for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, while operating profit and net income declined sharply.
The company kept its annual dividend unchanged at ¥20, which lifted the dividend payout ratio to 117.7%.
Management issued guidance for fiscal 2027 that indicates double-digit growth in both sales and profits, with projected net sales of ¥68.0b and expectations of stronger profitability.
The combination of weaker current profitability and a higher payout ratio suggests earnings pressure in the latest year, even as management signals confidence with an unchanged dividend and a more positive FY2027 forecast.
Investors may want to focus on how quickly margins recover and whether cash generation supports both the dividend and the planned increase in sales to ¥68.0b. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥16.98 (down from JP¥36.57 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥59.6b (up 7.0% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥1.61b (down 54% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 2.7% (down from 6.2% in FY 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • May 14
Price target increased by 12% to JP¥4,810 Up from JP¥4,292, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 25% below last closing price of JP¥6,430. Stock is up 105% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥18.71 for next year compared to JP¥36.57 last year. Annuncio • May 14
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2026 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2026. Annuncio • Apr 07
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results at 3:00 PM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 13, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 23 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.6%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥3,835, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 85x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 15% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,612 per share. Price Target Changed • Mar 04
Price target increased by 8.3% to JP¥4,265 Up from JP¥3,938, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥4,240. Stock is up 1.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥16.29 for next year compared to JP¥36.57 last year. Annuncio • Feb 21
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Announces Changes in Directors and Audit & Supervisory Board Members, Scheduled Effective Date: Mid-June 2026 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced that, at the meeting of the Board of Directors held on February 20, 2026, the Company resolved as follows regarding Changes in Directors and Audit & Supervisory Board Members. This will be officially approved at the Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders for fiscal 2025 to be held in mid-June 2026 and at the following meetings of the Board of Directors and the Audit & Supervisory Board. The company announced the retirement of Yoshihiro Tanioka as Director and Masanobu Nakamura as Outside Director. Scheduled Effective Date: Mid-June 2026. Yoshihiro Tanioka will be Technical Advisor after Retirement. The company announced retirement of Hidefumi Iguchi as Audit & Supervisory Board Member (Full-time). Hidefumi Iguchi will be Advisor after Retirement. Scheduled Effective Date: Mid-June 2026. Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥4.78 (down from JP¥5.22 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥14.3b (up 3.9% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥452.0m (down 8.9% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 3.6% in 3Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Dec 06
First half dividend of JP¥10.00 announced Dividend of JP¥10.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 23rd June 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.1%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 41%. Cash payout ratio: 121%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 04
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to JP¥3,645, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 105x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 2.4% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,521 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥3.75 (up from JP¥5.97 loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥14.3b (up 5.8% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥355.2m (up JP¥921.9m from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.5% (up from net loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥2,950, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 117x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 35% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,557 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 05 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 51% and the cash payout ratio is 87%. Trailing yield: 0.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.0%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥3,075, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 122x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 33% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,590 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from JP¥16.60 to JP¥14.87 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥59.2b. Net income forecast to shrink 36% next year vs 9.3% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,678. Share price fell 12% to JP¥2,395 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 01
Price target decreased by 7.1% to JP¥3,686 Down from JP¥3,968, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of JP¥2,545. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥17.32 for next year compared to JP¥36.57 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥61.6b to JP¥59.5b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥25.96 per share to JP¥18.50 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 23% next year vs 9.3% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥3,968 to JP¥3,784. Share price fell 8.9% to JP¥2,570 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
First quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥0.40 loss per share (vs JP¥2.98 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: JP¥0.40 loss per share (improved from JP¥2.98 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥13.5b (up 3.8% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥38.0m (loss narrowed 87% from 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 47 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Declared Dividend • Jul 21
Final dividend of JP¥10.00 announced Dividend of JP¥10.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 5th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.1%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 55%. Cash payout ratio: 87%. Reported Earnings • Jun 21
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥36.57 (up from JP¥261 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥55.6b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: JP¥3.47b (up JP¥28.3b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from net loss in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 82 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • May 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 31% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥62.4b to JP¥61.6b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥36.11 per share to JP¥24.99 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 34% next year vs 4.6% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,950. Share price was steady at JP¥3,445 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 18
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥36.57 (up from JP¥261 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥55.6b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: JP¥3.47b (up JP¥28.3b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from net loss in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 87 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Annuncio • May 14
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 20, 2025 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 20, 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 24 June 2025. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.1%). Price Target Changed • Feb 15
Price target increased by 11% to JP¥3,999 Up from JP¥3,618, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 8.1% below last closing price of JP¥4,350. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥35.45 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥261 last year. Price Target Changed • Feb 08
Price target increased by 8.0% to JP¥3,909 Up from JP¥3,618, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 14% below last closing price of JP¥4,535. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥22.71 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥261 last year. Annuncio • Jan 16
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (TSE:6324) announces an Equity Buyback for 400,000 shares, representing 0.42% for ¥1,200 million. Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (TSE:6324) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 400,000 shares, representing 0.42% of its share capital, for ¥1,200 million. The purpose of the program is to implement flexible capital policies with a view to returning profits to shareholders and improving capital efficiency. The program will expire on June 30, 2025. As of December 31, 2024, the company had 94,993,134 shares in issue (excluding treasury stock) and 1,322,266 shares in treasury. Declared Dividend • Dec 06
First half dividend of JP¥10.00 announced Dividend of JP¥10.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 24th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.1%. Price Target Changed • Dec 04
Price target decreased by 12% to JP¥3,519 Down from JP¥4,019, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 68% above last closing price of JP¥2,092. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥3.30 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥261 last year. Annuncio • Nov 22
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Provides Consolidated and Non-Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. provided consolidated and non-consolidated earnings guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025. For the year, on consolidated basis, the company expects net sales of JPY 54,000 million, operating loss of JPY 400 million, loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 400 million and basic loss per share of JPY 4.21 against previous forecast of net sales of JPY 58,500 million, operating profit of JPY 2,700 million, profit attributable to owners of parent JPY 2,000 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 21.06.
For the year, on non-consolidated basis, the company expects net sales of JPY 30,000 million, operating loss of JPY 700 million, loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 500 million and basic loss per share of JPY 5.26 against previous forecast of net sales of JPY 34,000 million, operating profit of JPY 600 million, profit of JPY 600 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 4.74. Annuncio • Nov 21
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Announces Dividend for the Second Quarter-End of Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025, Payable on December 5, 2024 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. announced dividend for the second quarter-end of fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. For the second-quarter, Company announced dividend of JPY 10.00 per share against JPY 10.00 per share paid a year ago. Scheduled date of commencing dividend payments: December 5, 2024. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Second quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥5.97 loss per share (down from JP¥0.85 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥13.6b (down 1.4% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥566.7m (down JP¥647.7m from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 78 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Nov 14
Price target decreased by 8.6% to JP¥4,229 Down from JP¥4,629, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 103% above last closing price of JP¥2,087. Stock is down 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥5.58 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥261 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.9%). Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥10.00 announced Dividend of JP¥10.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.1%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 135%. Cash payout ratio: 26%. Reported Earnings • Jun 28
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: JP¥261 loss per share (down from JP¥79.66 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥55.8b (down 22% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥24.8b (down 427% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 10% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annuncio • Jun 06
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Provides Consolidated and Non-Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the First Half and Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2025 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. provided consolidated and non-consolidated earnings guidance for the first half and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. For the first half, on Consolidated basis Company expected net sales of JPY 27,000 million, operating profit of JPY 100 million, profit attributable to owners of parent JPY 100 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 1.05. For the Year, on Consolidated basis Company expected net sales of JPY 58,500 million, operating profit of JPY 2,700 million, profit attributable to owners of parent JPY 2,000 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 21.06.For Non-consolidated basis, For the first half, Company expected net sales of JPY 15,000 million, operating loss of JPY 200 million, loss of JPY 100 million and basic loss per share of JPY 1.05. For the year, Company expected net sales of JPY 34,000 million, operating profit of JPY 600 million, profit of JPY 600 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 4.74. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 03
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.6% to JP¥4,510. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,651, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: JP¥261 loss per share (down from JP¥79.66 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥55.8b (down 22% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥24.8b (down 427% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥60.5b to JP¥59.7b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥37.62 per share to JP¥33.39 per share. Net income forecast to grow 15% next year vs 8.1% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,570 to JP¥4,720. Share price fell 8.2% to JP¥3,900 over the past week. Annuncio • May 15
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 21, 2024 Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 21, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • May 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 76% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -JP¥1.48 to -JP¥2.60 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥54.8b. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 4.8% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥4,570 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥3,965 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 24 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.9%). Major Estimate Revision • Feb 28
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to JP¥1.72 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 losses forecast to reduce from -JP¥7.47 to -JP¥1.72 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥55.0b. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 3.5% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,651. Share price rose 11% to JP¥3,990 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: JP¥7.52 loss per share (down from JP¥24.77 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥13.2b (down 34% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥715.0m (down 130% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 62%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 95% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -JP¥1.87 to -JP¥3.64 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥55.1b. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 8.8% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,944. Share price fell 3.1% to JP¥4,030 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to JP¥1.32 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. Forecast loss of -JP¥1.32 per share in 2024, versus previous forecasts of JP¥0.028 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥55.4b at last update. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 7.0% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥4,913 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.8% to JP¥3,995 over the past week. Annuncio • Dec 08
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering. Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering.
Security Name: Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 4,379,400
Transaction Features: Rule 144A; Subsequent Direct Listing Annuncio • Dec 07
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (TSE:6324) announces an Equity Buyback for 700,000 shares, representing 0.74% for ¥2,000 million. Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (TSE:6324) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 700,000 shares, representing 0.74% of its share capital, for ¥2,000 million. The purpose of the program is to alleviate the short-term impact on company stock supply and demand and reducing the impact on existing shareholders. The program will expire on January 19, 2024. As of September 30, 2023, the company had 95,081,151 shares in issue (excluding treasury stock) and 1,234,249 shares in treasury. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase from loss to JP¥0.028 profit The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. Forecast profits in 2024 with EPS up from -JP¥0.072 to JP¥0.028 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from last update at JP¥55.4b. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 6.9% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,913. Share price fell 6.4% to JP¥4,005 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 28
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to JP¥0.072 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 losses forecast to reduce from -JP¥1.43 to -JP¥0.072 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥55.4b. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 7.8% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,873. Share price was steady at JP¥4,280 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded. The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥57.0b to JP¥55.5b. Now expected to report a loss of JP¥2.45 per share instead of JP¥19.39 per share profit previously forecast. Machinery industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 7.1% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,803. Share price rose 6.5% to JP¥3,935 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 10
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.4% Last year net profit margin: 11% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.4% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥3.00 per share at 1.0% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 05 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 1.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.1%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from JP¥27.86 to JP¥24.62. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥59.0b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 4.6% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥4,730 to JP¥4,883. Share price fell 6.2% to JP¥3,485 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥2.44 (down from JP¥12.54 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥15.0b (down 4.4% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥232.0m (down 81% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 7.7% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 76%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 81% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. 
