Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a good week for Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (TSE:6324) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.6% to JP¥4,865. Results overall were not great, with earnings of JP¥5.22 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit JP¥14b and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Harmonic Drive Systems

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Harmonic Drive Systems from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥65.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply a major 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Harmonic Drive Systems is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of JP¥46.56 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥65.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥44.78 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Harmonic Drive Systems' earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥3,778, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Harmonic Drive Systems at JP¥5,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,500. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Harmonic Drive Systems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Harmonic Drive Systems is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Harmonic Drive Systems' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,778, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Harmonic Drive Systems going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Harmonic Drive Systems .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.