Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

TSE:6324 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥182.7b

Harmonic Drive Systems Valuation

Is 6324 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6324 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6324 (¥1923) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥991.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6324 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6324?

Key metric: As 6324 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 6324. This is calculated by dividing 6324's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 6324's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.4x
SalesJP¥53.59b
Market CapJP¥182.67b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 6324's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 6324 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
6134 Fuji
1.6x8.8%JP¥205.2b
6407 CKD
1.2x7.8%JP¥170.5b
6371 Tsubakimoto Chain
0.7x2.7%JP¥198.5b
6508 Meidensha
0.7x4.4%JP¥193.0b
6324 Harmonic Drive Systems
3.4x10.3%JP¥182.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 6324's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Machinery Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4242 Takagi Seiko
0.08xn/aUS$25.53m
6217 Tsudakoma
0.06xn/aUS$15.21m
No more companies available in this PS range
6324 3.4xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies28PS00.40.81.21.62+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the JP Machinery industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6324's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6324 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.4x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6324 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,923.00
JP¥4,228.90
+119.9%
26.2%JP¥5,800.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Nov ’25JP¥2,710.00
JP¥4,628.70
+70.8%
24.4%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Oct ’25JP¥3,560.00
JP¥4,658.70
+30.9%
24.9%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥3,500.00
JP¥4,838.70
+38.2%
19.2%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥4,080.00
JP¥4,864.00
+19.2%
18.3%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥4,475.00
JP¥4,784.44
+6.9%
21.5%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a9
Jun ’25JP¥4,165.00
JP¥4,682.50
+12.4%
20.9%JP¥6,000.00JP¥3,000.00n/a8
May ’25JP¥3,965.00
JP¥4,570.00
+15.3%
19.3%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥4,205.00
JP¥4,584.44
+9.0%
17.7%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥4,170.00
JP¥4,651.00
+11.5%
17.1%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥3,505.00
JP¥4,796.00
+36.8%
17.7%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥4,160.00
JP¥4,913.00
+18.1%
14.8%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥4,315.00
JP¥4,873.00
+12.9%
14.8%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Nov ’24JP¥3,260.00
JP¥4,833.00
+48.3%
16.3%JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,710.0010
Oct ’24JP¥3,320.00
JP¥4,883.00
+47.1%
13.9%JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥3,560.0010
Sep ’24JP¥3,865.00
JP¥4,730.00
+22.4%
19.7%JP¥5,900.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,500.0011
Aug ’24JP¥3,775.00
JP¥4,984.55
+32.0%
19.7%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,080.0011
Jul ’24JP¥4,610.00
JP¥5,071.54
+10.0%
19.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,475.0013
Jun ’24JP¥4,790.00
JP¥4,842.14
+1.1%
23.1%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥4,165.0014
May ’24JP¥4,145.00
JP¥4,820.71
+16.3%
23.1%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥3,965.0014
Apr ’24JP¥4,395.00
JP¥4,799.29
+9.2%
23.8%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥4,205.0014
Mar ’24JP¥4,925.00
JP¥4,880.00
-0.9%
21.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,170.0014
Feb ’24JP¥4,395.00
JP¥4,698.46
+6.9%
24.4%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥3,505.0013
Jan ’24JP¥3,715.00
JP¥4,615.00
+24.2%
24.8%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥4,160.0012
Dec ’23JP¥3,705.00
JP¥4,910.83
+32.5%
23.5%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥4,315.0012
Nov ’23JP¥4,870.00
JP¥5,010.00
+2.9%
22.1%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,260.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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