Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

TSE:6324 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥259.0b

Harmonic Drive Systems Valuation

Is 6324 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6324 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6324 (¥2815) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1473.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6324 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6324?

Key metric: As 6324 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 6324. This is calculated by dividing 6324's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 6324's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5x
SalesJP¥53.59b
Market CapJP¥259.05b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 6324's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 6324 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
6134 Fuji
1.6x8.4%JP¥205.5b
6268 Nabtesco
1x4.5%JP¥329.3b
6508 Meidensha
0.7x4.4%JP¥196.9b
6371 Tsubakimoto Chain
0.7x2.8%JP¥193.3b
6324 Harmonic Drive Systems
5x9.7%JP¥259.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 6324's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Machinery Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4242 Takagi Seiko
0.08xn/aUS$23.63m
6217 Tsudakoma
0.06xn/aUS$13.76m
No more companies available in this PS range
6324 5.0xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies27PS00.40.81.21.62+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the JP Machinery industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6324's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6324 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 6324 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6324 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,815.00
JP¥3,518.90
+25.0%
28.6%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Dec ’25JP¥1,853.00
JP¥3,788.90
+104.5%
31.7%JP¥5,800.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Nov ’25JP¥2,710.00
JP¥4,628.70
+70.8%
24.4%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Oct ’25JP¥3,560.00
JP¥4,658.70
+30.9%
24.9%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥3,500.00
JP¥4,838.70
+38.2%
19.2%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥4,080.00
JP¥4,864.00
+19.2%
18.3%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥4,475.00
JP¥4,784.44
+6.9%
21.5%JP¥6,000.00JP¥2,800.00n/a9
Jun ’25JP¥4,165.00
JP¥4,682.50
+12.4%
20.9%JP¥6,000.00JP¥3,000.00n/a8
May ’25JP¥3,965.00
JP¥4,570.00
+15.3%
19.3%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥4,205.00
JP¥4,584.44
+9.0%
17.7%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥4,170.00
JP¥4,651.00
+11.5%
17.1%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥3,505.00
JP¥4,796.00
+36.8%
17.7%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥4,160.00
JP¥4,913.00
+18.1%
14.8%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥4,315.00
JP¥4,873.00
+12.9%
14.8%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,853.0010
Nov ’24JP¥3,260.00
JP¥4,833.00
+48.3%
16.3%JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,710.0010
Oct ’24JP¥3,320.00
JP¥4,883.00
+47.1%
13.9%JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥3,560.0010
Sep ’24JP¥3,865.00
JP¥4,730.00
+22.4%
19.7%JP¥5,900.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥3,500.0011
Aug ’24JP¥3,775.00
JP¥4,984.55
+32.0%
19.7%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,080.0011
Jul ’24JP¥4,610.00
JP¥5,071.54
+10.0%
19.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,475.0013
Jun ’24JP¥4,790.00
JP¥4,842.14
+1.1%
23.1%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥4,165.0014
May ’24JP¥4,145.00
JP¥4,820.71
+16.3%
23.1%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥3,965.0014
Apr ’24JP¥4,395.00
JP¥4,799.29
+9.2%
23.8%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,690.00JP¥4,205.0014
Mar ’24JP¥4,925.00
JP¥4,880.00
-0.9%
21.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥4,170.0014
Feb ’24JP¥4,395.00
JP¥4,698.46
+6.9%
24.4%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥3,505.0013
Jan ’24JP¥3,715.00
JP¥4,615.00
+24.2%
24.8%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥4,160.0012
Dec ’23JP¥3,705.00
JP¥4,910.83
+32.5%
23.5%JP¥6,800.00JP¥3,060.00JP¥4,315.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 07:51
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Graeme McDonaldCitigroup Inc
Yoshiyasu TakemuraCredit Suisse
Yuichiro IsayamaGoldman Sachs