Positive earnings growth hasn't been enough to get ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) shareholders a favorable return over the last three years

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 21% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 29% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

The recent uptick of 6.0% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, ZTO Express (Cayman) actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 26% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 11% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating ZTO Express (Cayman) further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ZTO Express (Cayman) is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for ZTO Express (Cayman) in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of ZTO Express (Cayman), it has a TSR of -26% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 23% in the last year, ZTO Express (Cayman) shareholders lost 9.8% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ZTO Express (Cayman) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.