NYSE:ZTO

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet with acceptable track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ZTO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ZTO's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

8.4%

ZTO

-0.5%

US Logistics

1.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

39.6%

ZTO

39.4%

US Logistics

22.6%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ZTO exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned 38.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZTO exceeded the US Market which returned 22.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ZTOIndustryMarket
7 Day8.4%-0.5%1.4%
30 Day15.2%-4.5%4.9%
90 Day6.6%-4.9%14.6%
1 Year41.1%39.6%42.6%39.4%25.4%22.6%
3 Year107.7%100.4%24.4%16.5%46.8%37.0%
5 Yearn/a111.7%88.2%132.0%106.1%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

10.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ZTO ($32.26) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($36.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZTO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ZTO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (30.5x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (29.4x).

PE vs Market: ZTO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (30.5x) compared to the US market (21.1x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ZTO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ZTO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.6x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (3.1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is ZTO Express (Cayman) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

19.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZTO's forecast earnings growth (19.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: ZTO's earnings (19.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (21.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ZTO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ZTO's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ZTO's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.4%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has ZTO Express (Cayman) performed over the past 5 years?

28.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ZTO has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ZTO's current net profit margins (22.5%) are higher than last year (22.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ZTO's earnings have grown significantly by 28.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ZTO's earnings growth over the past year (15.4%) is below its 5-year average (28.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ZTO earnings growth over the past year (15.4%) exceeded the Logistics industry -26.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity (11.1%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ZTO's short term assets (CN¥25.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥9.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: ZTO's short term assets (CN¥25.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥673.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ZTO's debt to equity ratio (4.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ZTO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 4.3% to 4.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ZTO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (248.1%).

Interest Coverage: ZTO earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.93%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ZTO's dividend (0.93%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.37%).

High Dividend: ZTO's dividend (0.93%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.86%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, ZTO has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ZTO's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: ZTO's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (20.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Meisong Lai (49 yo)

5.75yrs

Tenure

Mr. Meisong Lai is Founder of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. and has been its Chairman of Board of Directors since 2013 and chief executive officer since April 8, 2015. Mr. Lai is the deputy chairman of the Chi...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Meisong Lai
Founder5.75yrsno data25%
CN¥ 6.9b
Huiping Yan
Chief Financial Officer2.67yrsno datano data
Hongqun Hu
Chief Operating Officer3.67yrsno datano data
Sophie Li
Investor Relations Directorno datano datano data
Jianfeng Zhang
Vice President of Public Relations4.92yrsno datano data
Jianfa Lai
VP of Operations & Director8yrsno data7.78%
CN¥ 2.1b
Jilei Wang
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director8yrsno data5.87%
CN¥ 1.6b
Baixi Lan
General Manager of Beijing Operations9yrsno datano data
Jianmin Guo
2.67yrsno datano data

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

50.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ZTO's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Meisong Lai
Founder5.75yrsno data25%
CN¥ 6.9b
Jianfa Lai
VP of Operations & Director8yrsno data7.78%
CN¥ 2.1b
Jilei Wang
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director8yrsno data5.87%
CN¥ 1.6b
Qin Huang
Independent Director4.25yrsno datano data
Cheng-Chun Yu
Independent Director4.25yrsno datano data
Xing Liu
Independent Director8yrsno datano data
Zhen Wei
Independent Director5.42yrsno datano data
Tsun-Ming Kao
Independent Director3.25yrsno datano data
Lin Wan
Director2.58yrsno datano data

5.4yrs

Average Tenure

49yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ZTO's board of directors are considered experienced (5.4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 9.4%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
  • Ticker: ZTO
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2002
  • Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: US$27.592b
  • Shares outstanding: 855.30m
  • Website: https://www.zto.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
  • Building One
  • No. 1685 Huazhi Road, Huaxin Town
  • Shanghai
  • 201708
  • China

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ZTONYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesSPONSORED ADRUSUSDOct 2016
ZTOADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesSPONSORED ADRDEEUROct 2016
0A33LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesSPONSORED ADRGBUSDOct 2016
ZTO NBMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesSPONSORED ADRMXMXNOct 2016
2057SEHK (The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd.)USD0.0001 (A & B CLASS)HKHKDSep 2020

Biography

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/01/21 23:20
End of Day Share Price2021/01/21 00:00
Earnings2020/09/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.