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ZTO Express (Cayman)

NYSE:ZTO
Snowflake Description

Flawless balance sheet with acceptable track record.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
ZTO
NYSE
$16B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Transportation
Company description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The last earnings update was 8 days ago. More info.


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ZTO Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
1.4%
NYSE:ZTO
0.1%
US Logistics
-0.1%
US Market
1 Year Returns
23.7%
NYSE:ZTO
-5%
US Logistics
7.6%
US Market
ZTO Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) 1.4% 11% 14.5% 23.7% - -
US Logistics 0.1% 9% 10.8% -5% 17.4% 33.3%
US Market -0.1% 3.7% 10.2% 7.6% 38.1% 46.4%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • ZTO outperformed the Logistics industry which returned -5% over the past year.
  • ZTO outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 7.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
ZTO
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

Sorry, no analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s competitors could be found in our database.

ZTO Value

 Is ZTO Express (Cayman) undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of ZTO Express (Cayman) to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for ZTO Express (Cayman).

NYSE:ZTO Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 15 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:ZTO
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Logistics Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.04
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.037 (1 + (1- 25%) (0%))
1.025
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.02
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.025 * 5.96%)
8.84%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:ZTO using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for ZTO Express (Cayman) is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:ZTO DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (CNY, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.84%)
2019 1,810.50 Analyst x2 1,663.47
2020 3,779.00 Analyst x4 3,190.15
2021 5,963.75 Analyst x4 4,625.62
2022 11,506.00 Analyst x1 8,199.59
2023 15,967.98 Est @ 38.78% 10,455.26
2024 20,433.38 Est @ 27.96% 12,292.55
2025 24,600.63 Est @ 20.39% 13,597.69
2026 28,314.10 Est @ 15.1% 14,379.32
2027 31,537.81 Est @ 11.39% 14,715.81
2028 34,309.62 Est @ 8.79% 14,709.08
Present value of next 10 years cash flows CN¥97,828.55
NYSE:ZTO DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CN¥34,309.62 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (8.84% – 2.73%)
CN¥576,992.12
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= CN¥576,992.12 ÷ (1 + 8.84%)10
CN¥247,365.71
NYSE:ZTO Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CN¥97,828.55 + CN¥247,365.71
CN¥345,194.26
Equity Value per Share
(CNY)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CN¥345,194.26 / 787.92
CN¥438.11
NYSE:ZTO Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate CNY/USD
(Reporting currency to currency of NYSE:ZTO)
0.149
Value per Share
(USD)
= Value per Share in CNY x Exchange Rate (CNY/USD)
= CN¥438.11 x 0.149
$65.14
Value per share (USD) From above. $65.14
Current discount Discount to share price of $19.80
= -1 x ($19.80 - $65.14) / $65.14
69.6%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price ZTO Express (Cayman) is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is $19.8 vs Future cash flow value of $65.14
Current Discount Checks
For ZTO Express (Cayman) to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-12-31) in CNY CN¥5.83
NYSE:ZTO Share Price ** NYSE (2019-04-23) in USD $19.8
NYSE:ZTO Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (USD/ CNY) 6.726 CN¥133.17
United States of America Logistics Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 14 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 20.77x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,080 Publicly-Listed Companies 18.03x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of ZTO Express (Cayman).

NYSE:ZTO PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:ZTO Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CNY)

= 133.17 ÷ 5.83

22.84x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Logistics industry average.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 22.84x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 15 Analysts
13.9%per year
United States of America Logistics Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 12 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 1.68x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,109 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.55x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:ZTO PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 22.84x ÷ 13.9%

1.65x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-12-31) in CNY CN¥43.56
NYSE:ZTO Share Price * NYSE (2019-04-23) in USD $19.8
NYSE:ZTO Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (USD/ CNY) 6.726 CN¥133.17
United States of America Logistics Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 16 Publicly-Listed Logistics Companies 2.91x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,185 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.92x
NYSE:ZTO PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:ZTO Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CNY)

= 133.17 ÷ 43.56

3.06x

* Primary Listing of ZTO Express (Cayman).

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Logistics industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Logistics industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Logistics industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO Future Performance

 How is ZTO Express (Cayman) expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
13.9%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s revenue growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:ZTO Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 15 Analysts 13.9%
NYSE:ZTO Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 15 Analysts 18.4%
United States of America Logistics Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11.6%
United States of America Logistics Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.2%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.5%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.1%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 15 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CNY Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:ZTO Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 43,802 15,943 9,778 1
2021-12-31 32,963 10,534 6,659 9
2020-12-31 27,341 8,109 5,816 15
2019-12-31 22,312 6,747 4,891 13
NYSE:ZTO Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-12-31 17,604 4,404 4,383
2018-09-30 16,308 3,973 4,330
2018-06-30 15,216 4,086 3,987
2018-03-31 13,990 3,513 3,213
2017-12-31 13,060 3,631 3,160
2017-09-30 11,920 3,442 2,592
2017-06-30 11,130 3,229 2,382
2017-03-31 10,445 2,640 2,052
2016-12-31 9,789 2,572 1,848
2016-09-30 8,786 2,442 1,865
2016-06-30 7,846 2,042 1,562
2016-03-31 6,802 1,920 1,383

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings are expected to grow by 13.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s revenue is expected to grow by 18.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 15 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from ZTO Express (Cayman) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:ZTO Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 12.90 12.90 12.90 1.00
2021-12-31 8.35 9.84 6.21 7.00
2020-12-31 7.26 7.85 5.85 11.00
2019-12-31 6.15 6.43 5.83 10.00
NYSE:ZTO Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS *
2018-12-31 5.83
2018-09-30 5.91
2018-06-30 5.58
2018-03-31 4.50
2017-12-31 4.41
2017-09-30 3.64
2017-06-30 3.46
2017-03-31 3.10
2016-12-31 2.91
2016-09-30 3.04
2016-06-30 2.56
2016-03-31 2.29

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO Past Performance

  How has ZTO Express (Cayman) performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare ZTO Express (Cayman)'s growth in the last year to its industry (Logistics).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 1-year earnings growth is less than its 5-year average (38.7% vs 41.8%)
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings growth has exceeded the US Logistics industry average in the past year (38.7% vs 22.8%).
Earnings and Revenue History
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from ZTO Express (Cayman) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:ZTO Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-12-31 17,604.45 4,383.03 1,210.72
2018-09-30 16,307.87 4,329.79 1,156.75
2018-06-30 15,216.37 3,987.12 1,100.68
2018-03-31 13,989.88 3,212.87 1,034.17
2017-12-31 13,060.07 3,159.66 780.52
2017-09-30 11,919.64 2,592.16 754.93
2017-06-30 11,129.62 2,381.98 689.91
2017-03-31 10,444.81 2,051.92 705.34
2016-12-31 9,788.77 1,848.47 706.00
2016-09-30 8,786.22 1,864.73 695.51
2016-06-30 7,845.57 1,561.69 723.28
2016-03-31 6,801.97 1,382.92 629.78
2015-12-31 6,086.46 1,290.82 591.74
2014-12-31 3,903.57 406.43 322.04

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) used its assets more efficiently than the US Logistics industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Logistics industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO Health

 How is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up ZTO Express (Cayman)'s finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has no debt, it does not need to be covered by short term assets.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from ZTO Express (Cayman) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

NYSE:ZTO Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-31 34,269.55 0.00 18,250.50
2018-09-30 33,129.83 0.00 18,166.74
2018-06-30 30,127.09 0.00 15,665.47
2018-03-31 20,696.10 0.00 8,932.53
2017-12-31 21,441.32 250.00 10,666.33
2017-09-30 20,624.97 250.00 10,702.58
2017-06-30 20,494.47 250.00 10,900.25
2017-03-31 20,164.86 700.00 11,146.81
2016-12-31 19,750.75 450.00 11,296.96
2016-09-30 9,537.97 300.00 1,977.72
2016-06-30 8,973.93 406.94 2,058.23
2016-03-31 7,846.22 300.00 2,452.36
2015-12-31 7,846.22 300.00 2,452.36
2014-12-31 3,395.70 250.00 163.36
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has no debt.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) currently has no debt however we can't compare to 5 years ago as we have no data for that period.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has no debt, it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
X
Financial health checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO Dividends

 What is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
1.21%
Current annual income from ZTO Express (Cayman) dividends. Estimated to be 0.33% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of ZTO Express (Cayman) shares you are expected to receive $24 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s pays a lower dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.4%).
  • ZTO Express (Cayman)'s dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.64%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:ZTO Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 15 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Logistics Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 6 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2008 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.6%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:ZTO Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 1.30 7.00
2020-12-31 0.00 7.00
2019-12-31 0.00 7.00
NYSE:ZTO Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-04-16 1.605 1.230
2019-03-12 1.607 1.285

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • It is too early to tell whether ZTO Express (Cayman) has stable dividend payments.
  • ZTO Express (Cayman) only just started paying a dividend, it is too early to tell if payments are increasing.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ZTO Express (Cayman) has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for United States of America.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can ZTO Express (Cayman) afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO Management

 What is the CEO of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Meisong Lai
AGE 47
TENURE AS CEO 4 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Meisong Lai is Founder of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. and has been its Chairman of Board of Directors since 2013 and chief executive officer since April 8, 2015. Mr. Lai is the deputy chairman of the China Express Delivery Association. Mr. Lai is a prominent figure in China's express delivery industry and has been deeply involved in the industry for over 15 years.

CEO Compensation
  • Insufficient data for Meisong to compare compensation growth.
  • Insufficient data for Meisong to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the ZTO Express (Cayman) management team in years:

2.5
Average Tenure
48.5
Average Age
  • The tenure for the ZTO Express (Cayman) management team is about average.
Management Team

Meisong Lai

TITLE
Founder
AGE
47
TENURE
4 yrs

Huiping Yan

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
AGE
51
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Hongqun Hu

TITLE
Chief Operating Officer
AGE
49
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Sophie Li

TITLE
Investor Relations Director

Jianfeng Zhang

TITLE
Vice President of Public Relations
AGE
35
TENURE
3.2 yrs

Jianfa Lai

TITLE
VP of Operations & Director
AGE
48
TENURE
1.2 yrs

Jilei Wang

TITLE
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director
AGE
52
TENURE
6.5 yrs

Baixi Lan

TITLE
General Manager of Beijing Operations
AGE
50
TENURE
7.3 yrs

James Guo

TITLE
AGE
47
TENURE
0.9 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the ZTO Express (Cayman) board of directors in years:

3.7
Average Tenure
47
Average Age
  • The tenure for the ZTO Express (Cayman) board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Jianfa Lai

TITLE
VP of Operations & Director
AGE
48
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Jilei Wang

TITLE
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director
AGE
52
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Xing Liu

TITLE
Director
AGE
47
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Meisong Lai

TITLE
Founder
AGE
47
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Frank Wei

TITLE
Director
AGE
46
TENURE
3.7 yrs

Herman Yu

TITLE
Director
AGE
48
TENURE
2.5 yrs

Charles Huang

TITLE
Director
AGE
48
TENURE
2.5 yrs

Daniel Kao

TITLE
Independent Director
AGE
45
TENURE
1.5 yrs

Lin Wan

TITLE
Director
AGE
43
TENURE
0.8 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
X
Management checks
We assess ZTO Express (Cayman)'s management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. ZTO Express (Cayman) has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

ZTO News

Simply Wall St News

Why You Should Like ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s (NYSE:ZTO) ROCE

Specifically, we're going to calculate its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), in the hopes of getting some insight into the business. … Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE). … ROCE measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business.

Simply Wall St -

Did ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Use Debt To Deliver Its ROE Of 13%?

ZTO Express (Cayman) has a ROE of 13%, based on the last twelve months. … One way to conceptualize this, is that for each $1 of shareholders' equity it has, the company made $0.13 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

What Should We Expect From ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Earnings In The Next Couple Of Years?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) released its most recent earnings update in December 2018, whicha

Simply Wall St -

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) A Top Dividend Stock?

Dividends play an important role in compounding returns in the long run and end up forming a sizeable part of investment returns. … Let's take a look at ZTO Express (Cayman) in more detail. … View our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)

Simply Wall St -

If You Had Bought ZTO Express (Cayman) Shares A Year Ago You'd Have Made 20%

We'll need to follow ZTO Express (Cayman) for a while to get a better sense of its share price trend, since it hasn't been listed for particularly long. … Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about ZTO Express (Cayman) as it was before. … If you are thinking of buying or selling ZTO Express (Cayman) stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

Simply Wall St -

Investors Are Undervaluing ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) By 20.98%

Today, I will calculate the stock's intrinsic value. … by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. … Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Simply Wall St -

What Kind Of Shareholder Appears On The ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Shareholder Register?

The big shareholder groups in ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. … ZTO Express (Cayman) has a market capitalization of US$14b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. … Taking a look at the our data on the ownership groups (below), it's seems that.

Simply Wall St -

Why ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Is A Financially Healthy Company

Most investors favour these big stocks due to their strong balance sheet and high market liquidity, meaning there are an abundance of stock in the public market available for trading. … These companies are resilient in times of low liquidity and are not as strongly impacted by interest rate hikes as companies with lots of debt. … Using the most recent data for ZTO, I will determine its financial status based on its solvency and liquidity, and assess whether the stock is a safe investment.

Simply Wall St -

Buy ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) When Everyone Panics

I'm talking about the well-proven, robust track record ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.. … Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman). … provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China

Simply Wall St -

What Should Investors Know About The Future Of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO)?

(NYSE:ZTO) released its earnings in September 2018,. … the consensus outlook from analysts appear somewhat bearish, … the higher past 5-year average growth rate of 43%

Simply Wall St -

ZTO Company Info

Description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2018, it operated a fleet of approximately 4,500 self-owned trucks. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Details
Name: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 2009
$15,600,822,672
787,920,337
Website: http://www.zto.cn
Address: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Building One,
No. 1685 Huazhi Road,
Shanghai,
201708,
China
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE ZTO SPONSORED ADR New York Stock Exchange US USD 27. Oct 2016
DB ZTOA SPONSORED ADR Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 27. Oct 2016
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
15,700
ZTO Express (Cayman) employees.
Industry
Air Freight and Logistics
Transportation
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/04/24 00:55
End of day share price update: 2019/04/23 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/04/22
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/16
Last earnings reported: 2018/12/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.