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ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) NYSE:ZTO Stock Report

Last Price

US$24.03

Market Cap

US$19.5b

7D

-0.7%

1Y

-20.2%

Updated

30 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
ZTO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance4/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends0/6

ZTO Stock Overview

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for ZTO Express (Cayman)
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$24.03
52 Week HighUS$34.82
52 Week LowUS$19.72
Beta-0.060
1 Month Change-7.75%
3 Month Change-9.76%
1 Year Change-20.17%
3 Year Change15.98%
5 Year Change76.56%
Change since IPO45.02%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 16
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 35% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 35% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

How far off is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data...

Aug 31
ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Aug 23

ZTO Express: Market Share Gains Negated By Weak Economic Environment

ZTO achieved robust revenue and earnings growth in the recent quarter, thanks to volume growth, ASP increases, lower competitive intensity, and good expense management. I have a positive view of ZTO's future market share gain potential, but I am worried about the negative effects of weaker economic growth in China on its short-term performance. My rating for ZTO Express is a Hold, considering expectations of revenue growth deceleration in the short term and the potential of substantial market share gains in the long run. Elevator Pitch I rate ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (ZTO) [2057:HK] shares as a Hold. ZTO refers to itself as "a leading express delivery company in China" and "one of the largest" worldwide on its corporate website. ZTO Express' recent Q2 2022 financial performance was excellent, but the market still expects the company's top line growth to decelerate for the next three years. The negatives associated with weak economic growth should offset the positives relating to market share gains for ZTO in the near future. In that respect, I think that a Hold investment rating for ZTO is fair. Robust Top Line And Bottom Line Growth For Q2 2022 ZTO Express delivered a very strong set of financial results for the second quarter of 2022, as highlighted in its most recent quarterly earnings press release published on August 17, 2022, after the market closed. Revenue for ZTO increased by +18.2% YoY to RMB8,657 million for Q2 2022, and this implied that ZTO Express' YoY top line expansion has accelerated compared to a lower +14.4% YoY revenue growth recorded in Q2 2021. The company's strong revenue growth for Q2 2022 was driven by both price increases and higher volumes. Specifically, ZTO Express' parcel volume and delivery ASP (Average Selling Price) grew by +7.5% YoY and +10.5% YoY, respectively in the recent quarter. Non-GAAP net profit for ZTO Express surged by +38% YoY from RMB1,272 million in Q2 2021 to RMB1,759 million in Q2 2022. Besides benefiting from a significant increase in its revenue, ZTO's bottom line grew substantially as a result of better profit margins. ZTO's gross profit margin expanded by +2.6 percentage points from 22.8% in the second quarter of 2021 to 25.4% in the most recent quarter. The company explained at its Q2 2022 analyst briefing on August 17, 2022, that its ability to "sustain the price that was increased from the past year" and the fact that "the competitive environment is stabilizing" helped it to deliver an improvement in profitability at the gross profit level in Q2. The company's operating margin also increased by +300 basis points from 19.9% in Q2 2021 to 22.9% for Q2 2022, as ZTO Express managed its costs well. This is evidenced by a decline in the company's selling, general & administrative or SG&A expenses-to-revenue ratio from 5.4% in the quarter a year ago to 5.3% in the second quarter of this year. Positive On Market Share Gains The key positive takeaway from ZTO Express' most recent second-quarter financial results is that the company is grabbing market share from its competitors. ZTO revealed in its Q2 2022 results media release that its share of the express delivery market in Mainland China with regards to parcel volume rose from 21% in Q1 2022 to 23% in the recent quarter. It is critical that ZTO Express grows its market share for two key reasons. The first key reason is that express delivery is a high fixed-cost business for which economies of scale matters. The second key reason is that bargaining power with customers and suppliers is also a function of size. Looking forward, ZTO Express has guided at its recent Q2 2022 results briefing that the company is "in a very good position to reach 30% or even 40% of the overall market in the next five to 10 years." ZTO's long-term market share expectations don't seem farfetched, if one examines short-term and long-term historical trends. In its Q2 2022 earnings presentation slides, ZTO highlighted that its market share has increased every year between 2017 and 2021. Specifically, ZTO Express' share of the China express delivery market grew from 15.5% to 20.6% over this period. A decade ago, ZTO's market share was much lower at 7.6% in 2011. Industry consolidation is a key driver of share gains for ZTO Express and its larger peers. A Comparison Of The China Express Delivery Market's Competitive Landscape In 2011 And 2021 ZTO's Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation

Aug 16

ZTO Express Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

ZTO Express (NYSE:ZTO) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Wednesday, August 17th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.27 (+12.5% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1.26B (+11.5% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, ZTO has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward.

Shareholder Returns

ZTOUS LogisticsUS Market
7D-0.7%-1.3%-2.5%
1Y-20.2%-17.5%-23.2%

Return vs Industry: ZTO underperformed the US Logistics industry which returned -15.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZTO exceeded the US Market which returned -21.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ZTO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ZTO volatility
ZTO Average Weekly Movement5.0%
Logistics Industry Average Movement5.6%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: ZTO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ZTO's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200223,865Meisong Laihttps://www.zto.com

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ZTO fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$19.46b
Earnings (TTM)US$792.84m
Revenue (TTM)US$4.66b

24.5x

P/E Ratio

4.2x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ZTO income statement (TTM)
RevenueCN¥33.17b
Cost of RevenueCN¥25.53b
Gross ProfitCN¥7.64b
Other ExpensesCN¥2.00b
EarningsCN¥5.64b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)6.97
Gross Margin23.04%
Net Profit Margin17.01%
Debt/Equity Ratio13.9%

How did ZTO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

n/a

Payout Ratio