NYSE:ZTO

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China.


Snowflake Analysis

Flawless balance sheet with moderate growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ZTO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.8%

ZTO

0.9%

US Logistics

0.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

27.5%

ZTO

-2.5%

US Logistics

20.3%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ZTO exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned -2.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZTO exceeded the US Market which returned 20.3% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ZTOIndustryMarket
7 Day1.8%0.9%0.5%
30 Day3.7%-4.3%2.0%
90 Day19.6%-2.8%9.4%
1 Year29.2%27.5%-0.2%-2.5%22.8%20.3%
3 Year80.3%75.8%11.6%5.0%50.1%40.4%
5 Yearn/a18.8%7.0%73.1%54.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

29.48x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ZTO ($24.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($22.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZTO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ZTO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.5x) compared to the Logistics industry average (21.1x).

PE vs Market: ZTO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.5x) compared to the US market (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ZTO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ZTO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (2.9x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is ZTO Express (Cayman) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

17.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZTO's forecast earnings growth (17.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: ZTO's earnings (17.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ZTO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ZTO's revenue (19.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ZTO's revenue (19.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has ZTO Express (Cayman) performed over the past 5 years?

35.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ZTO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ZTO's current net profit margins (22.1%) are lower than last year (26.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ZTO's earnings have grown significantly by 35.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ZTO's earnings growth over the past year (6.8%) is below its 5-year average (35.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ZTO earnings growth over the past year (6.8%) exceeded the Logistics industry -4.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity (12.7%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ZTO's short term assets (CN¥19.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥5.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: ZTO's short term assets (CN¥19.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥614.5M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ZTO is debt free.

Reducing Debt: ZTO had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: ZTO has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: ZTO has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: ZTO has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if ZTO's debt is covered by short term assets.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.92%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ZTO's dividend (0.92%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.44%).

High Dividend: ZTO's dividend (0.92%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.73%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether ZTO's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if ZTO's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of ZTO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Meisong Lai (48yo)

4.8yrs

Tenure

Mr. Meisong Lai is Founder of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. and has been its Chairman of Board of Directors since 2013 and chief executive officer since April 8, 2015. Mr. Lai is the deputy chairman of the Chi ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Meisong Lai
Founder4.8yrsno data27.2% CN¥5.3b
Huiping Yan
Chief Financial Officer1.8yrsno datano data
Hongqun Hu
Chief Operating Officer2.8yrsno datano data
Sophie Li
Investor Relations Director0yrsno datano data
Jianfeng Zhang
Vice President of Public Relations4yrsno datano data
Jianfa Lai
VP of Operations & Director7.1yrsno data7.72% CN¥1.5b
Jilei Wang
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director7.1yrsno data6.92% CN¥1.3b
Baixi Lan
General Manager of Beijing Operations8.1yrsno datano data
Jianmin Guo
1.8yrsno datano data

3.4yrs

Average Tenure

49.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ZTO's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Meisong Lai
Founder4.8yrsno data27.2% CN¥5.3b
Jianfa Lai
VP of Operations & Director7.1yrsno data7.72% CN¥1.5b
Jilei Wang
VP of Infrastructure Management & Director7.1yrsno data6.92% CN¥1.3b
Qin Huang
Independent Director3.3yrsno datano data
Cheng-Chun Yu
Independent Director3.3yrsno datano data
Xing Liu
Independent Director7.1yrsno datano data
Zhen Wei
Independent Director4.5yrsno datano data
Tsun-Ming Kao
Independent Director2.3yrsno datano data
Lin Wan
Director1.7yrsno datano data

4.5yrs

Average Tenure

48yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ZTO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 7.1%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
  • Ticker: ZTO
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2009
  • Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: US$19.392b
  • Shares outstanding: 781.95m
  • Website: https://www.zto.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
  • Building One
  • No. 1685 Huazhi Road
  • Shanghai
  • 201708
  • China

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ZTONYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesSPONSORED ADRUSUSDOct 2016
ZTOADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesSPONSORED ADRDEEUROct 2016

Biography

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2018, it operated a fleet of approximately 4,500 self-owned trucks. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/20 03:06
End of Day Share Price2020/02/19 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.