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ZTO Express (Cayman) Community
NYSE:ZTO Community
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ZTO Express (Cayman)
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ZTO Express (Cayman)
WA
WaneInvestmentHouse
Community Contributor
ZTO Delivers Solid Volume Growth Amid Margin Pressures in Q1 2025
ZTO Express kicked off 2025 with a strong operational performance, highlighted by a 19.1% year-over-year surge in parcel volume to 8.5 billion —a clear reflection of robust market demand and the company's deepening competitive moat in China’s express delivery landscape. The company reiterated its full-year volume growth guidance of 20% to 24% , underscoring management's confidence in sustained momentum.
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US$20.00
FV
1.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
15.78%
Revenue growth p.a.
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0
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3
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2 months ago
author updated this narrative
ZTO Express (Cayman)
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Investing In Automation And AI Will Reduce Costs And Improve Profitability
Key Takeaways Focus on quality service and market share expansion is expected to drive parcel volume and revenue growth above industry averages. Investment in technology and collaborative strategies should improve efficiency, brand recognition, and profit margins.
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US$22.56
FV
10.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
11.63%
Revenue growth p.a.
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5 days ago
author updated this narrative
ZTO Express (Cayman)
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Chinese E-Commerce Deceleration And Cost Pressures Will Strain Performance
Key Takeaways Slower e-commerce growth and pricing pressure threaten revenue expansion and long-term earnings stability amid intensifying competition. Rising costs from automation, regulation, and customer concentration could weaken margins and strain financial flexibility over time.
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US$17.13
FV
18.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
8.71%
Revenue growth p.a.
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0
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5 days ago
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ZTO Express (Cayman)
AN
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
E-commerce And AI Logistics Will Transform China And Southeast Asia
Key Takeaways Accelerated automation, AI deployment, and strategic partnerships position ZTO for rapid margin expansion and increased dominance in China's evolving e-commerce logistics market. Financial strength and network scale enable ZTO to capitalize on urbanization trends, market consolidation, and expansion into adjacent logistics sectors for long-term profitability.
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US$28.00
FV
27.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
16.59%
Revenue growth p.a.
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0
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5 days ago
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Your Valuation for
ZTO
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman)
Your Fair Value
US$
Current Price
US$20.29
12.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
Growth estimate over
Annual revenue growth rate
5 Years
time period
%/yr
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Past
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74b
2015
2018
2021
2024
2025
2027
2030
Revenue CN¥73.7b
Earnings CN¥15.3b
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