ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

NYSE:ZTO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.9b

ZTO Express (Cayman) Valuation

Is ZTO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ZTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ZTO ($19.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($34.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZTO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ZTO?

Key metric: As ZTO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ZTO. This is calculated by dividing ZTO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ZTO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.5x
EarningsCN¥8.63b
Market CapCN¥115.70b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ZTO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ZTO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.2x
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
35.5x16.9%US$12.4b
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington
21.3x2.4%US$15.8b
GXO GXO Logistics
46.9x44.7%US$5.1b
FDX FedEx
17.1x13.2%US$66.4b
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)
13.5x12.3%US$15.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ZTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (30.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ZTO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ZTO 13.5xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies33PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ZTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ZTO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ZTO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.5x
Fair PE Ratio17.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ZTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ZTO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.83
US$26.82
+35.3%
12.6%US$34.35US$20.50n/a21
Dec ’25US$19.00
US$26.96
+41.9%
12.6%US$34.53US$20.48n/a21
Nov ’25US$23.09
US$28.97
+25.5%
10.9%US$38.20US$20.38n/a21
Oct ’25US$25.40
US$29.00
+14.2%
12.9%US$38.73US$20.48n/a21
Sep ’25US$21.44
US$28.54
+33.1%
12.7%US$38.15US$20.36n/a21
Aug ’25US$18.50
US$28.46
+53.9%
15.7%US$38.27US$14.61n/a21
Jul ’25US$20.71
US$28.45
+37.4%
15.7%US$38.25US$14.60n/a21
Jun ’25US$22.79
US$28.59
+25.4%
14.9%US$38.36US$14.65n/a21
May ’25US$21.07
US$28.11
+33.4%
15.0%US$38.25US$14.67n/a21
Apr ’25US$21.45
US$28.35
+32.2%
15.2%US$38.35US$14.64n/a20
Mar ’25US$20.31
US$30.07
+48.1%
19.9%US$39.48US$14.57n/a19
Feb ’25US$16.54
US$30.95
+87.1%
19.1%US$39.57US$14.61n/a20
Jan ’25US$21.28
US$31.68
+48.9%
16.5%US$39.78US$14.69n/a20
Dec ’24US$22.27
US$32.13
+44.3%
17.2%US$41.01US$14.73US$19.0020
Nov ’24US$23.50
US$35.25
+50.0%
10.7%US$42.59US$29.92US$23.0920
Oct ’24US$24.17
US$35.33
+46.2%
10.5%US$42.59US$29.92US$25.4020
Sep ’24US$25.25
US$35.70
+41.4%
10.6%US$42.84US$30.10US$21.4421
Aug ’24US$26.92
US$36.78
+36.6%
9.1%US$42.97US$29.89US$18.5021
Jul ’24US$25.08
US$36.49
+45.5%
8.8%US$42.55US$29.60US$20.7121
Jun ’24US$25.79
US$37.21
+44.3%
8.5%US$43.57US$30.30US$22.7921
May ’24US$27.48
US$35.12
+27.8%
9.1%US$42.00US$30.16US$21.0721
Apr ’24US$28.66
US$34.97
+22.0%
8.2%US$41.00US$30.20US$21.4521
Mar ’24US$24.30
US$34.90
+43.6%
8.9%US$41.13US$29.62US$20.3121
Feb ’24US$29.36
US$35.21
+19.9%
9.2%US$41.77US$30.08US$16.5421
Jan ’24US$26.87
US$33.87
+26.1%
10.8%US$40.43US$24.66US$21.2821
Dec ’23US$24.86
US$32.81
+32.0%
11.1%US$39.10US$23.86US$22.2721

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 12:44
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yifan ZhouBOCI Research Ltd.
Yiqun ChenBOCI Research Ltd.
Fan TsoBofA Global Research