GXO Logistics Valuation

Is GXO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GXO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GXO ($52.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($55.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GXO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GXO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GXO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.2x
PEG Ratio1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GXO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GXO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.3x
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
26.7x13.8%US$8.7b
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings
8.2x5.0%US$2.9b
HUBG Hub Group
16.3x7.7%US$2.7b
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)
14.1x10.8%US$17.1b
GXO GXO Logistics
27.4x14.1%US$6.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GXO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the peer average (19x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GXO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GXO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GXO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GXO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.4x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GXO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GXO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$52.63
US$68.31
+29.8%
12.7%US$80.00US$50.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$50.93
US$68.07
+33.7%
12.4%US$80.00US$50.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$54.99
US$68.38
+24.3%
10.4%US$80.00US$53.00n/a16
Jan ’25US$61.16
US$68.13
+11.4%
10.1%US$80.00US$53.00n/a16
Dec ’24US$58.15
US$68.25
+17.4%
10.0%US$80.00US$53.00n/a16
Nov ’24US$50.33
US$72.19
+43.4%
9.6%US$80.00US$53.00n/a16
Oct ’24US$58.65
US$72.69
+23.9%
9.6%US$80.00US$53.00n/a16
Sep ’24US$65.21
US$72.76
+11.6%
9.3%US$81.00US$53.00n/a17
Aug ’24US$66.20
US$68.31
+3.2%
11.2%US$81.00US$47.00n/a16
Jul ’24US$62.82
US$65.06
+3.6%
11.0%US$75.00US$47.00n/a16
Jun ’24US$57.46
US$63.00
+9.6%
9.6%US$73.00US$47.00n/a16
May ’24US$53.23
US$60.40
+13.5%
10.2%US$73.00US$47.00n/a15
Apr ’24US$50.46
US$60.27
+19.4%
10.1%US$73.00US$47.00n/a15
Mar ’24US$50.41
US$60.33
+19.7%
10.3%US$74.00US$47.00US$50.9315
Feb ’24US$54.73
US$58.33
+6.6%
14.2%US$74.00US$40.00US$54.9915
Jan ’24US$42.69
US$52.13
+22.1%
14.1%US$67.00US$40.00US$61.1615
Dec ’23US$46.35
US$54.87
+18.4%
19.4%US$75.00US$40.00US$58.1515
Nov ’23US$37.46
US$61.64
+64.6%
20.3%US$79.00US$40.00US$50.3314
Oct ’23US$35.06
US$68.36
+95.0%
16.4%US$92.00US$52.00US$58.6514
Sep ’23US$43.48
US$70.07
+61.2%
14.1%US$92.00US$52.00US$65.2114
Aug ’23US$49.88
US$75.21
+50.8%
24.7%US$124.00US$52.00US$66.2014
Jul ’23US$44.04
US$82.93
+88.3%
19.6%US$124.00US$60.00US$62.8214
Jun ’23US$51.63
US$88.36
+71.1%
15.9%US$124.00US$66.00US$57.4611
May ’23US$59.19
US$97.58
+64.9%
14.2%US$124.00US$76.00US$53.2312
Apr ’23US$69.22
US$104.08
+50.4%
12.9%US$124.00US$75.00US$50.4612
Mar ’23US$79.09
US$104.08
+31.6%
12.9%US$124.00US$75.00US$50.4112

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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