ZTO Express (Cayman) Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
ZTO Express (Cayman) is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 7.6% and 7.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.3% in 3 years.
Key information
7.6%
Earnings growth rate
7.27%
EPS growth rate
| Logistics earnings growth | 10.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.9% |
| Future return on equity | 15.28% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • Aug 21
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Second-Quarter Report
Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) filed its quarterly result this time last...Analysis Article • May 23
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) filed its first-quarter result this time...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 19
ZTO: Pricing Recovery And Margin Resilience Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on ZTO Express (Cayman). One cut from $29 to $22 is weighing on the updated fair value estimate, as they factor in softer parcel volume guidance, a slower revenue growth outlook, and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple, despite continued focus on efficiency, quality, and margin resilience.
Narrative Update • Sep 04
ZTO: Quality Pivot And Buybacks Will Test Margin Resilience And Sentiment
Analysts have trimmed the base case fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) to about $22 from roughly $23.50, reflecting lower volume guidance, a reduced Street price target to $22 from $29, and a greater focus on quality, cost discipline, and margin resilience even as expected future P/E multiples ease. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on ZTO Express (Cayman) has turned more cautious as expectations around parcel growth, pricing, and what the market is willing to pay for the stock are reset.Narrative Update • Aug 21
ZTO: Buybacks And Alibaba Overhang Will Balance Pricing And Earnings Execution
Analysts trimmed their fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) to about $23.48 from $24.24 as they balanced a lower revenue growth outlook and a reduced future P/E multiple with expectations for firmer profit margins, improving industry pricing, and ongoing shareholder returns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) points to a mixed backdrop, with some firms expressing confidence in industry pricing and shareholder returns, while bearish analysts highlight fresh overhangs and valuation questions.Seeking Alpha • Aug 21
ZTO Express: The Power Of Price Over Volume
Summary ZTO Express remains a Buy, after my assessment of its performance and outlook. ZTO's 11% 2Q2026 EPS beat was underpinned by the avoidance of price wars and AI-driven cost reductions. Despite lowering full-year volume growth guidance to +8%, ZTO’s upward pricing adjustments, high-value business mix shift, and share repurchases support continued EPS growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 21
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Second-Quarter Report
Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) filed its quarterly result this time last...Narrative Update • Jun 29
ZTO: Market Share Gains And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have raised the price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to $29.03 from $23.87, reflecting updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation multiples amid mixed recent target changes on the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a split in opinion, with some analysts focusing on potential upside from execution and profitability, while others emphasize overhangs related to shareholder moves and industry conditions.Analysis Article • Jun 20
ZTO Express (ZTO) Stock Could Be 7.8% Undervalued as Automation Savings Come Into Focus
Recent Share Price Moves and Return Profile ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has drawn investor attention after recent trading saw the stock close at US$22. Over the past month, the share price declined about 4%, and over the past 3 months it fell roughly 10%. Looking further out, the stock is up about 2.5% year to date and gained roughly 31.8% over the past year. The 3 year and 5 year total returns declined about 4.3% and 19.5% respectively. See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman). For...
Narrative Update • Jun 15
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Margin Gains Will Support Share Upside
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman) The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been updated to $32.53 from $31.48 as analysts weigh a higher projected profit margin and a lower future P/E, along with slightly softer revenue growth assumptions and ongoing questions around a potential Alibaba stake sale overhang. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) highlights a mix of optimism around profitability and market share, alongside concern about potential share overhang linked to a possible Alibaba stake sale.Narrative Update • Jun 01
ZTO: Buybacks And Alibaba Stake Overhang Will Shape Execution And Sector Risks
Analysts have adjusted the blended fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to about $24.24 from $23.81. This reflects mixed changes in discount rate and growth assumptions as they weigh potential Alibaba stake sale overhang against views on valuation, share buybacks, and market share and profitability trends behind recent price target moves between about $25.60 and $30.10.Analysis Article • May 23
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( NYSE:ZTO ) filed its first-quarter result this time...Narrative Update • May 13
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Capital Returns Will Support Upside Potential
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman) The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been adjusted slightly higher to $31.48 from $31.38, reflecting analysts' updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following recent research that includes both higher targets and a downgrade, balanced around share buybacks and modest earnings revisions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ZTO Express (Cayman) reflects a mix of views, but the consensus price target has edged slightly higher as some analysts focus on valuation support, capital returns, and earnings potential.Narrative Update • Apr 23
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for ZTO Express (Cayman) higher, lifting the updated fair value estimate to about $31.38 from roughly $31.00. Recent research highlights the impact of share buybacks, slightly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and revised long term P/E expectations across the Street.Narrative Update • Apr 09
ZTO: Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Face Ongoing Execution And Growth Risks
Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about $21.10 to roughly $23.81. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and recent research that highlights share buybacks and improved unit economics, even as some views turn more cautious.Narrative Update • Mar 25
ZTO: Future Share Repurchases And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) by about $2 to roughly $31, as they factor in updated growth and margin assumptions alongside recent Street research that includes a higher $26 price target at BofA, an upgrade at Macquarie on better unit economics, and a downgrade at Daiwa reflecting more cautious views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street views on ZTO Express (Cayman) are mixed, but there is a clear pocket of optimism from bullish analysts who are leaning into share buybacks, earnings revisions, and improved unit economics as reasons to take a more constructive stance on the stock.Narrative Update • Mar 11
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to $29.03 from $28.84, citing updated fair value work that reflects ongoing share buybacks, a modest FY26 earnings uplift, and improved unit economics. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the latest fair value work leans on factors such as ongoing share buybacks, a 1% uplift to FY26 earnings expectations, and improved unit economics, which they see as supportive for the refreshed US$29.03 price target.Narrative Update • Feb 25
ZTO: Future Buybacks And Better Unit Economics Will Support Upside
Analysts now see fair value for ZTO Express (Cayman) nudging higher, with their price target moving from about $27.72 to roughly $28.84. This points to expectations for slightly better long term growth, profitability and P/E support, backed by recent price target raises tied to share buybacks and improved unit economics.Narrative Update • Feb 10
ZTO: Future Unit Economics Will Face Pressure From Execution Risks
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about US$19.53 to roughly US$21.10 per share, citing Street research that points to stronger unit economics, slightly higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, and a marginally lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research around ZTO Express (Cayman) has become more nuanced, with some highlighting better unit economics while others lean toward a more cautious stance on risks around execution, growth, and valuation.Narrative Update • Jan 27
ZTO: Future Buybacks Will Support Upside As Parcel Volumes Expand
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to reflect a fair value estimate of about $27.72, incorporating updated views on revenue, profit margins and an assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) repurchased 2,020,008 shares, about 0.25% of its share base, for US$71.7 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 13
ZTO: Buybacks And Stable Margins Will Support Fairly Valued Shares
Analysts have increased their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to US$23.87 from US$23.29, reflecting updated assumptions about modestly stronger revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed share repurchases under the buyback announced on November 14, 2018, totaling 52,919,506 shares, or 6.5% of the company, for US$1.3b (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 07
These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Narrative Update • Dec 28
ZTO Express Delivers Volume-Led Revenue Growth in Q3 2025, but Margin Pressure Weighs on Operating Performance
based on recent valautionNarrative Update • Dec 26
ZTO: Future Margin Gains And Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) from approximately $17.52 to $19.53 per share, citing expectations for improved profit margins and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite a small reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News ZTO Express (Cayman) updated its 2018 share repurchase program, disclosing that between July 1 and September 30, 2025 it bought back 2,020,008 shares, or about 0.25% of shares outstanding, for approximately $71.7 million (company buyback filing).Narrative Update • Dec 12
ZTO: Future Parcel Volume Expansion And Buybacks Will Drive Upside Potential
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been modestly reduced to approximately $27.26 from about $28.15, as analysts factor in slightly slower expected revenue growth and a higher discount rate, partly offset by improved profit margin forecasts and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back a total of 52,919,506 shares, about 6.5% of shares outstanding, for approximately $1.3 billion under the buyback first announced in November 2018 (company disclosure) Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, repurchased an additional 2,020,008 shares, roughly 0.25% of shares outstanding, for $71.7 million as the final tranche of the long running program (company disclosure) Issued 2025 parcel volume guidance of 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion parcels, implying year over year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% in shipment volume (company guidance) Scheduled a board meeting for November 19, 2025, to review and approve unaudited third quarter 2025 financial results and authorize their publication (board meeting notice) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was reduced slightly from $28.15 to $27.26 per share, reflecting more conservative growth assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 27
ZTO: Profit Margins Will Strengthen Despite Slower Volume Expansion
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) decreased from $22 to $20, as analysts point to slower delivery volume growth and a scarcity of near-term consolidation opportunities in the market. Analyst Commentary Following recent data releases and industry developments, analysts have provided updated perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s near-term prospects.Narrative Update • Nov 13
ZTO: Profit Margins Will Remain Resilient Despite Volume Slowdown
The analyst average price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) was lowered slightly, down from $23.27 to $23.24, as analysts cite a slowdown in express delivery volume growth and limited near-term consolidation opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts provided further insight into ZTO Express (Cayman)'s recent price target revisions, noting a mix of positive execution signals and sector-specific headwinds influencing sentiment.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Sustained Profitability And Efficiency Will Drive Continued Market Outperformance
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman): Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have marginally raised their price target for ZTO Express, increasing it from $23.22 to $23.27. This adjustment reflects sustained profitability, along with a cautious outlook due to slower express delivery volume growth and limited opportunities for near-term industry consolidation.Narrative Update • Oct 15
China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been reduced by $0.39, as analysts cite slower express delivery volume growth and a cautious outlook on near-term market opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts have adjusted their perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman), weighing both the company's operational strengths and the challenges present in the current market environment.Analysis Article • Sep 27
Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Narrative Update • Aug 27
China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
Despite a notable decline in both future P/E and consensus revenue growth forecasts for ZTO Express (Cayman), the consensus analyst price target has edged up from $22.95 to $23.58. What's in the News Company completed buyback of 50,899,498 shares (6.24%) for $1,228.3 million; no additional shares repurchased in recent quarter.Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
ZTO Express: Still Lack Of Strategic Clarity - Maintain 'Hold'
Summary ZTO Express' Q4 2024 results showed double-digit growth in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted net income, but parcel volume growth lagged behind the industry. Persistent strategic ambiguity and intense competition in China's express delivery market limit ZTO's potential for market re-rating, justifying a "hold" rating. Despite increasing ASP and higher margins, ZTO's market share declined, reflecting management's struggle to balance profitability and volume growth. At current prices, ZTO is fairly valued with limited upside, trading at a 30% discount to UPS due to a less favorable competitive environment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Nov 24
Decisive Innovations In E-commerce Partnerships And IT Systems To Fuel Logistics Growth
Strategic partnerships and service differentiation efforts aim to boost parcel volume, enhance pricing power, and drive revenue growth.Seeking Alpha • Nov 22
ZTO Express: Expect An Extended Price War, Downgrade To Hold
Summary ZTO Express faces ongoing challenges balancing profitability and growth amid a prolonged price war in China's express delivery industry, impacting its market share and financial outlook. Despite a 17.6% revenue increase and 23.2% gross profit growth in Q3 2024, ZTO's market share contracted by 2.2% year-over-year. Management's inconsistent strategy and vague future plans raise doubts about achieving a balance between quality, volume growth, and profitability. I am downgrading ZTO to a "hold" rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 06
ZTO Express: A Mix Of Positives And Negatives
Summary I am anticipating mixed results for ZTO in Q3 2024; my view is that ZTO would have registered faster revenue growth and margin contraction for the recent quarter. ZTO Express' long-term prospects are also mixed, as the Chinese express delivery sector is still expected to grow in the future, albeit at a more modest pace. I retain a Hold rating for ZTO stock, as there is a mix of positives and negatives associated with the stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 22
ZTO Express: Expecting Accelerating Volume Growth In H2
Summary ZTO Express' Q2 earnings show market share loss and focus on volume growth. Management shifts priority to volume growth to regain market share, aiming for an 18% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Financial projections indicate ZTO is undervalued, but short-term risk of margin decline due to an aggressive pricing strategy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 12
ZTO Express: Still Undervalued Despite Unexpected Market Share Loss
Summary Unexpected market share decline in 2024. Continued price war impacting all major players in China's express delivery industry. Financial projections and valuation updated, still showing potential for a 46% upside in two years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 67,457 | 12,657 | 11,037 | 17,459 | 15 |
| 12/31/2027 | 62,421 | 11,711 | 9,871 | 16,047 | 19 |
| 12/31/2026 | 57,707 | 10,565 | 9,081 | 14,469 | 17 |
| 6/30/2026 | 54,208 | 10,318 | 9,028 | 14,790 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 51,490 | 9,206 | 6,320 | 12,394 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 49,099 | 9,081 | 5,894 | 11,968 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 47,508 | 8,838 | 4,646 | 10,548 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 46,318 | 8,711 | 4,444 | 10,450 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 45,212 | 9,384 | 5,859 | 11,761 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 44,281 | 8,817 | 5,527 | 11,429 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 41,980 | 8,626 | 5,877 | 12,546 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 40,381 | 8,575 | 7,236 | 12,373 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 39,396 | 8,505 | 5,984 | 12,654 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 38,419 | 8,749 | 6,691 | 13,361 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 37,671 | 8,719 | 5,795 | 13,208 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 37,540 | 8,309 | 4,514 | 13,093 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 36,456 | 7,573 | 5,699 | 13,112 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 35,377 | 6,809 | 4,067 | 11,479 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 34,723 | 6,409 | 1,405 | 10,733 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 33,169 | 5,640 | 1,538 | 9,697 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 31,837 | 5,127 | -1,479 | 7,849 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 30,406 | 4,755 | -2,108 | 7,220 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 29,445 | 4,281 | -2,971 | 6,237 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 28,694 | 4,315 | -3,795 | 5,930 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 27,771 | 4,471 | -3,958 | 5,250 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 25,214 | 4,312 | -4,257 | 4,951 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 23,804 | 5,350 | -56 | 5,171 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 22,431 | 5,457 | -2,372 | 5,108 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 21,452 | 5,368 | N/A | 5,849 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 22,110 | 5,674 | N/A | 6,304 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 20,891 | 4,623 | N/A | 5,846 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 19,860 | 4,375 | N/A | 5,340 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 18,634 | 4,507 | N/A | 4,823 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 17,604 | 4,383 | N/A | 4,404 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 16,308 | 4,330 | N/A | 3,973 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 15,216 | 3,987 | N/A | 4,086 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 13,990 | 3,213 | N/A | 3,513 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 13,060 | 3,160 | N/A | 3,631 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 11,920 | 2,592 | N/A | 3,442 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 11,130 | 2,382 | N/A | 3,229 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 10,445 | 2,052 | N/A | 2,640 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 9,789 | 1,848 | N/A | 2,572 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 8,786 | 1,865 | N/A | 2,442 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 7,846 | 1,562 | N/A | 2,042 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 6,802 | 1,383 | N/A | 1,920 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 6,086 | 1,291 | N/A | 2,134 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZTO's forecast earnings growth (7.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: ZTO's earnings (7.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ZTO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ZTO's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ZTO's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ZTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.3%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/21 21:43 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Cherry Leung | Bernstein |
| Fan Tso | BofA Global Research |
| Y. Chen | CCB International Securities Limited |