ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.8% to US$20.14. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit CN¥44b. Statutory earnings fell 4.6% short of analyst forecasts, reaching CN¥10.70 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 23 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥51.1b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 15% to CN¥12.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥47.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥12.80 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$26.42, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to ZTO Express (Cayman)'s valuation in the near term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ZTO Express (Cayman) analyst has a price target of US$32.51 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ZTO Express (Cayman)'s past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of ZTO Express (Cayman)'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that ZTO Express (Cayman) is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$26.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ZTO Express (Cayman) going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.