Alaska Air Group, Inc.

NYSE:ALK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.1b

Alaska Air Group Valuation

Is ALK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ALK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: ALK ($55.14) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value ($10.72)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: ALK is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALK?

Key metric: As ALK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALK. This is calculated by dividing ALK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio63.7x
EarningsUS$100.00m
Market CapUS$6.08b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.3x
CPA Copa Holdings
9x8.73%US$5.8b
SKYW SkyWest
9.5x7.67%US$4.0b
AAL American Airlines Group
83.3x32.46%US$9.3b
AERO Grupo Aeroméxico. de
11.2x15.27%US$3.0b
ALK Alaska Air Group
63.7x51.47%US$6.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (63.7x) compared to the peer average (28.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ALK 63.7xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies11PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (63.7x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio63.7x
Fair PE Ratio38.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (63.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$55.14
US$70.80
+28.40%
11.18%US$94.00US$60.00n/a15
Jan ’27US$50.30
US$65.87
+30.95%
16.77%US$94.00US$50.00n/a15
Dec ’26US$42.52
US$65.71
+54.55%
18.06%US$94.00US$50.00n/a14
Nov ’26US$41.73
US$67.00
+60.56%
17.33%US$96.00US$52.00n/a14
Oct ’26US$48.50
US$70.86
+46.10%
15.62%US$96.00US$58.00n/a14
Sep ’26US$62.78
US$65.86
+4.90%
10.78%US$80.00US$56.00n/a14
Aug ’26US$51.37
US$64.38
+25.34%
12.12%US$80.00US$50.00n/a13
Jul ’26US$50.21
US$64.02
+27.51%
14.78%US$83.00US$49.00n/a15
Jun ’26US$50.93
US$63.42
+24.53%
15.68%US$83.00US$49.00n/a15
May ’26US$44.40
US$62.69
+41.19%
16.16%US$83.00US$49.00n/a15
Apr ’26US$49.04
US$85.16
+73.65%
10.67%US$110.00US$72.00n/a15
Mar ’26US$72.28
US$87.36
+20.86%
8.68%US$110.00US$77.34n/a15
Feb ’26US$73.25
US$87.02
+18.80%
9.04%US$110.00US$77.34US$50.8314
Jan ’26US$64.75
US$73.25
+13.13%
16.15%US$90.00US$45.00US$50.3015
Dec ’25US$52.60
US$61.12
+16.20%
14.66%US$80.00US$45.00US$42.5215
Nov ’25US$49.23
US$55.75
+13.25%
10.76%US$70.00US$45.00US$41.7313
Oct ’25US$45.11
US$53.32
+18.19%
13.63%US$70.00US$40.00US$48.5012
Sep ’25US$36.11
US$51.82
+43.49%
14.89%US$70.00US$40.00US$62.7812
Aug ’25US$36.34
US$52.07
+43.27%
14.66%US$70.00US$40.00US$51.3712
Jul ’25US$40.09
US$55.48
+38.39%
14.46%US$75.00US$42.00US$50.2112
Jun ’25US$42.02
US$55.73
+32.62%
14.92%US$75.00US$42.00US$50.9311
May ’25US$42.18
US$55.60
+31.82%
15.99%US$75.00US$42.00US$44.4010
Apr ’25US$43.07
US$50.82
+17.99%
15.85%US$70.00US$40.00US$49.0411
Mar ’25US$37.00
US$50.36
+36.12%
16.38%US$70.00US$40.00US$72.2811
Feb ’25US$36.26
US$49.73
+37.14%
16.98%US$70.00US$40.00US$73.2511
US$70.8
Fair Value
22.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/03 12:50
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/03 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David FintzenBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays