We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Alaska Air Group Valuation

Is ALK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ALK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.2x
PEG Ratio2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
CPA Copa Holdings
8.9x13.8%US$3.4b
LUV Southwest Airlines
28.4x25.5%US$23.5b
SKYW SkyWest
7.5x-15.4%US$927.5m
HRBR Harbor Diversified
2.4xn/aUS$100.3m
ALK Alaska Air Group
109.7x54.5%US$5.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (109.7x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a40.9%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (109.7x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (11.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio109.7x
Fair PE Ratio44.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (109.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALK ($46.71) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($2.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALK is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$46.71
US$61.08
+30.8%
21.8%US$95.00US$45.00n/a13
Nov ’23US$44.52
US$61.83
+38.9%
22.1%US$95.00US$45.00n/a12
Oct ’23US$39.15
US$63.92
+63.3%
23.0%US$95.00US$45.00n/a12
Sep ’23US$43.69
US$65.00
+48.8%
22.9%US$98.00US$45.00n/a12
Aug ’23US$45.24
US$65.73
+45.3%
23.4%US$98.00US$45.00n/a11
Jul ’23US$41.17
US$73.64
+78.9%
17.2%US$103.00US$58.00n/a11
Jun ’23US$46.57
US$77.07
+65.5%
12.6%US$103.00US$61.00n/a14
May ’23US$54.39
US$77.07
+41.7%
12.6%US$103.00US$61.00n/a14
Apr ’23US$57.95
US$75.50
+30.3%
12.5%US$99.00US$61.00n/a14
Mar ’23US$52.34
US$74.93
+43.2%
12.0%US$99.00US$61.00n/a14
Feb ’23US$54.81
US$74.71
+36.3%
12.3%US$99.00US$61.00n/a14
Jan ’23US$52.10
US$77.50
+48.8%
10.7%US$97.00US$64.00n/a14
Dec ’22US$46.29
US$77.36
+67.1%
10.3%US$97.00US$67.00US$47.4114
Nov ’22US$54.71
US$77.57
+41.8%
10.2%US$97.00US$67.00US$44.5214
Oct ’22US$62.20
US$78.93
+26.9%
9.8%US$97.00US$67.00US$39.1514
Sep ’22US$57.23
US$80.20
+40.1%
9.0%US$94.00US$68.00US$43.6915
Aug ’22US$58.03
US$80.20
+38.2%
8.3%US$94.00US$68.00US$45.2415
Jul ’22US$61.43
US$83.20
+35.4%
9.7%US$104.00US$68.00US$41.1715
Jun ’22US$69.54
US$83.77
+20.5%
10.2%US$104.00US$68.00US$46.5713
May ’22US$69.14
US$83.85
+21.3%
10.2%US$104.00US$68.00US$54.3913
Apr ’22US$69.49
US$70.31
+1.2%
17.5%US$90.00US$49.00US$57.9513
Mar ’22US$64.83
US$64.21
-0.9%
15.5%US$82.00US$46.00US$52.3414
Feb ’22US$49.89
US$59.64
+19.5%
10.8%US$70.00US$46.00US$54.8114
Jan ’22US$52.00
US$55.50
+6.7%
15.2%US$70.00US$44.00US$52.1014
Dec ’21US$50.94
US$51.29
+0.7%
14.2%US$65.00US$43.00US$46.2914

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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