Alaska Air Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Alaska Air Group has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 39.3%, while the Airlines industry saw earnings growing at 48.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 21% per year. Alaska Air Group's return on equity is 2%, and it has net margins of 0.5%.
Key information
39.28%
Earnings growth rate
39.79%
EPS growth rate
| Airlines Industry Growth | 0.092% |
| Revenue growth rate | 20.97% |
| Return on equity | 1.96% |
| Net Margin | 0.51% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
ALK: Fuel Cost Uncertainty And 2025 Demand Outlook Will Shape Repricing
Analysts have lowered the Alaska Air Group fair value estimate by $1.50 to $41.00 as they recalibrate price targets in response to updated fuel cost assumptions, slightly softer margin expectations, and refreshed P/E inputs across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Alaska Air Group reflects a mixed backdrop, with several Bearish analysts trimming price targets and reassessing their assumptions on fuel, margins, and earnings power.ALK: Late 2025 Demand And Fuel Risk Reset Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have reset the fair value estimate for Alaska Air Group to $42.50 from $60.00 after updating assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples following a series of price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Alaska Air Group, with several firms revisiting their price targets and assumptions.
ALK: Late 2025 Demand Momentum And Capacity Discipline Will Support Upside
The analyst price target for Alaska Air Group has been adjusted slightly higher, reflecting a fair value estimate change from $86.64 to $86.98, as analysts update their views on revenue growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions following mixed but generally constructive recent research commentary on the airline sector. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alaska Air Group reflects a mix of price target increases and reductions, with bullish analysts still highlighting potential upside tied to execution, demand trends, and the balance between costs and pricing.ALK: Late 2025 Demand Momentum And 2026 Guidance Will Support Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Alaska Air Group by $9 to $54, reflecting higher assumed fuel costs and more cautious expectations for margin expansion, even as some research points to supportive demand and a relatively constructive setup into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Alaska Air Group reflects a mix of caution on costs and optimism on demand, with price targets moving in both directions as firms refresh their models for fuel and 2026 guidance.ALK: Late 2025 Demand Momentum And 2026 Guidance Will Drive Upside
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Alaska Air Group has been revised higher by about $5.60, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions around demand trends, margin expectations, and a higher forward P/E multiple supported by recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alaska Air Group has leaned positive, with several bullish analysts lifting their price targets into the high US$60s to US$70 range.ALK: Late 2025 Demand And Q4 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their blended price targets on Alaska Air Group into the high US$60s, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue and profit margins. These revisions are supported by improving demand expectations and an outlook that Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance could reset expectations versus current consensus.Alaska Air Group: A Look Back At The Past Year
Feb 02ALK: Late 2025 Demand And Route Expansion Will Shape Bullish Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alaska Air Group to US$60 from about US$51.37, citing expectations for stronger demand in late 2025, a constructive airline setup into 2026, and more supportive assumptions on revenue growth and future P/E, even with more conservative profit margin inputs. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alaska Air Group has clustered around higher price targets in the US$65 to US$70 range, with several firms updating their views as part of Q4 earnings previews and broader airline sector outlooks.ALK: Multi Year Route Expansion And Fuel Costs Will Shape Outlook
The Analyst Price Target for Alaska Air Group has been revised from US$49.00 to about US$51.37, as analysts point to recent target hikes and a more constructive multi year outlook supported by expectations around brand loyalty, diverse revenue streams, and updated earnings estimates into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alaska Air Group has centered on updated price targets and fresh earnings previews through 2026.
ALK: Technology Driven Merchandising Will Support Future Upside Despite Fuel Headwinds
Analysts have nudged their average price target on Alaska Air Group slightly lower to approximately $65.47 from about $65.71, reflecting modestly improved long term revenue growth and margin assumptions, offset by a lower valuation multiple and discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Alaska Air Group highlight a mixed but generally constructive outlook, with price target changes reflecting shifting views on earnings power, fuel cost exposure, and the broader airline demand backdrop.ALK: Premium Seats And Loyalty Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly lifted their consolidated price target for Alaska Air Group to about $65. The move reflects updated estimates following recent quarterly results, shifting fuel cost assumptions, and growing conviction in the carrier's long term earnings power amid strengthening corporate demand and loyalty driven initiatives.ALK: Premium Seat Expansion And Loyalty Program Growth Will Drive Future Strength
Alaska Air Group's analyst price target was revised slightly downward, from $67 to approximately $66.79, as analysts weighed recent earnings results, evolving sector dynamics, and the impact of higher costs on updated forecasts. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlighted Alaska Air's potential for earnings growth.ALK: Premium Seat Expansion And International Routes Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Alaska Air Group from $68.93 to $67.00. This reflects a cautious outlook, as recent Street research points to higher fuel costs, more challenging earnings forecasts, and ongoing industry headwinds, balanced by select optimism regarding corporate demand and strategic initiatives.Seattle Expansion And Hawaiian Integration Will Create Lasting Value
The analyst price target for Alaska Air Group was revised slightly downward by $1 to $68.93, as analysts cited factors such as higher jet fuel costs and recent earnings guidance for the adjustment. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary has reflected both optimism and caution regarding Alaska Air Group’s prospects, based on evolving market dynamics, company-specific developments, and updated earnings guidance.Seattle Expansion And Hawaiian Integration Will Create Lasting Value
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Alaska Air Group, now projecting fair value at approximately $69.93 per share compared to the previous estimate of $71.36. They cite updated forecasts that balance ongoing cost headwinds with optimism for long-term growth and competitive positioning.Seattle Expansion And Hawaiian Integration Will Create Lasting Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Alaska Air Group to $71.36, citing strengthening corporate demand, competitive easing, and long-term earnings tailwinds that outweigh near-term cost headwinds. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite accelerating corporate demand and easing competitive pressures as key drivers of improved outlook and de-risked near-term performance.Seattle Expansion And Hawaiian Integration Will Create Lasting Value
Analysts have raised Alaska Air Group’s price target modestly—from $65.21 to $66.29—citing improving demand, a favorable competitive environment, and increased confidence in management’s disciplined handling of strategic changes. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite improving demand trends and favorable competitive capacity developments, boosting confidence in Alaska Air’s forward earnings outlook.Alaska Air Group: Shares Plunge Due To Economic Uncertainty
Apr 24Alaska Air Group: A High-Flying Bargain
Mar 11Alaska Airlines: Solid Q4 But A Hold For Now
Jan 28
Acquisition Of Hawaiian Airlines Will Unlock Significant Synergies And Expand Global Reach
Integration with Hawaiian Airlines and network expansion are key strategies to boost revenue and earnings growth through synergies and international market reach.Alaska Airlines Maps A Stronger Future
Jan 17Alaska Airlines Stock Surges 15% On Bullish Outlook
Dec 10Alaska Air Group: Post-Hawaiian Perils
Nov 12Alaska Air Group: What Is The Stock Worth After Hawaiian Airlines Takeover?
Sep 26The World Opens To Alaska Airlines With Its Merger Approval
Sep 19Alaska Airlines And Hawaiian Airlines Move Closer To Merger Approval After DoJ Review
Aug 21Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Alaska Air Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 14,402 | 73 | 406 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 14,239 | 100 | 407 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 14,141 | 150 | 418 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 13,447 | 313 | 393 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 12,640 | 361 | 372 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 11,735 | 395 | 349 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 10,754 | 322 | 315 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 10,521 | 225 | 317 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 10,462 | 245 | 314 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 10,426 | 235 | 303 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 10,352 | 259 | 308 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 10,341 | 160 | 306 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 10,161 | 59 | 303 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 9,646 | 58 | 295 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 9,066 | 54 | 268 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 8,191 | 208 | 235 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 7,060 | 466 | 198 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,176 | 478 | 173 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 5,085 | 13 | 141 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 3,833 | -612 | 116 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 2,727 | -1,223 | 79 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 3,566 | -1,324 | 101 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 4,986 | -696 | 160 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 6,674 | 57 | 213 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 8,541 | 533 | 296 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 8,781 | 769 | 313 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 8,617 | 611 | 317 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 8,440 | 506 | 319 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 8,308 | 437 | 320 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 8,264 | 437 | 326 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 8,142 | 729 | 336 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 8,040 | 771 | 349 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 7,986 | 871 | 363 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 7,894 | 960 | 368 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 7,476 | 759 | 340 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 6,932 | 756 | 306 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 6,324 | 723 | 259 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 5,925 | 797 | 248 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 5,784 | 891 | 213 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 5,733 | 909 | 208 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 5,676 | 883 | 207 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 5,598 | 848 | 211 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 5,527 | 805 | 205 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 5,477 | 729 | 207 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: ALK has a large one-off loss of $190.0M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: ALK's current net profit margins (0.5%) are lower than last year (2.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ALK has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 39.3% per year.
Accelerating Growth: ALK's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: ALK had negative earnings growth (-79.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Airlines industry average (18%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ALK's Return on Equity (2%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/30 21:23 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Garrett Chase | Barclays |
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |