NYSE:ALK

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services.


Snowflake Analysis

Good value with proven track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Alaska Air Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ALK's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

28.0%

ALK

13.1%

US Airlines

9.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

-47.9%

ALK

-53.1%

US Airlines

-6.8%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ALK exceeded the US Airlines industry which returned -53.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALK underperformed the US Market which returned -6.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ALKIndustryMarket
7 Day28.0%13.1%9.4%
30 Day-30.8%-36.6%-3.9%
90 Day-52.0%-54.7%-16.5%
1 Year-46.7%-47.9%-52.3%-53.1%-4.8%-6.8%
3 Year-61.1%-63.4%-47.3%-49.5%23.4%15.2%
5 Year-45.3%-49.8%-39.6%-43.2%41.3%25.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Alaska Air Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Alaska Air Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ALK ($31.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($102.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ALK is poor value based on its PE Ratio (5.1x) compared to the Airlines industry average (3.5x).

PE vs Market: ALK is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.1x) compared to the US market (13.6x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ALK is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ALK is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the US Airlines industry average (0.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Alaska Air Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

5.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALK's forecast earnings growth (5.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: ALK's earnings (5.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALK's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALK's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (6.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALK's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Alaska Air Group performed over the past 5 years?

-4.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALK's current net profit margins (8.8%) are higher than last year (5.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALK's earnings have declined by -4.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALK's earnings growth over the past year (76%) exceeds its 5-year average (-4.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALK earnings growth over the past year (76%) exceeded the Airlines industry 41.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: ALK's Return on Equity (17.8%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Alaska Air Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALK's short term assets ($2.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($3.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: ALK's short term assets ($2.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.5B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALK's debt to equity ratio (34.8%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALK's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 38.6% to 34.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALK's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (114.1%).

Interest Coverage: ALK's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (51x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Alaska Air Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.75%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALK's dividend (4.75%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.87%).

High Dividend: ALK's dividend (4.75%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (5.12%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, ALK has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALK's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (22.4%), ALK's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: ALK's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (27.4% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Brad Tilden (58yo)

7.92s

Tenure

US$5,528,316

Compensation

Mr. Bradley D. Tilden, also known as Brad, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at Alaska Air Group, Inc. since May 15, 2012. Mr. Tilden has been the Chief Executive Officer of Alaska Airline ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Brad's total compensation ($USD5.53M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.53M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Brad's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Bradley Tilden
Chairman7.92yrsUS$5.53m0.16% $6.3m
Shane Tackett
CFO & EVP of finance0.083yrUS$2.12m0.011% $423.1k
Benito Minicucci
Former President of Alaska Airlines Inc. & Directorno dataUS$3.51m0.086% $3.3m
Helvi Sandvik
Independent Director6.42yrsUS$192.92k0.0031% $121.7k
Gary Beck
Executive VP & COO0.42yrno data0.0015% $57.0k
Kevin Thiel
Managing Director of Accounting Operations6.17yrsno datano data
Lavanya Sareen
Managing Director of Investor Relations5.75yrsno datano data
Kyle Levine
Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer4.25yrsno data0.0069% $265.8k
Geni Venable
Manager of Corporate Communicationno datano datano data
Mark Bocchi
Managing Director of Sales & Community Marketingno datano datano data

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ALK's management team is seasoned and experienced (5 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Bradley Tilden
Chairman7.92yrsUS$5.53m0.16% $6.3m
Helvi Sandvik
Independent Director6.42yrsUS$192.92k0.0031% $121.7k
Phyllis Campbell
Independent Director18.25yrsUS$207.24k0.019% $721.9k
James Thompson
Independent Director21.25yrsUS$185.80k0.0099% $384.8k
Eric Yeaman
Independent Director7.42yrsUS$218.67k0.0068% $264.3k
James Beer
Independent Director2.67yrsUS$178.88k0.00065% $25.2k
Patricia Bedient
Lead Independent Director3.92yrsUS$203.99k0.017% $654.1k
Marion Blakey
Independent Director9.5yrsUS$198.17k0.0046% $178.2k
Raymond Conner
Independent Director2.25yrsUS$180.55k0.0030% $115.9k
Dhiren Fonseca
Independent Director5.5yrsUS$193.43k0.0055% $214.7k

6.3yrs

Average Tenure

62.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ALK's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ALK insiders have bought and sold the same number of shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Alaska Air Group, Inc.
  • Ticker: ALK
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1932
  • Industry: Airlines
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: US$3.875b
  • Shares outstanding: 122.58m
  • Website: https://www.alaskaair.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc.
  • 19300 International Boulevard
  • Seattle
  • Washington
  • 98188
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ALKNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJan 1968
ALKDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 1968
0HC3LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJan 1968
A1LK34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH 1 REPR 1 COMBRBRLJan 2020

Biography

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It has a network of approximately 1,300 daily flights to 115 destinations across the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Costa Rica. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/10 08:42
End of Day Share Price2020/04/09 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.