NYSE:CPA

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services.

Rewards

Trading at 44.8% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.37% per year

Earnings grew by 180.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results



Snowflake Analysis

Proven track record average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Copa Holdings's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CPA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.9%

CPA

1.8%

US Airlines

1.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

20.5%

CPA

3.5%

US Airlines

20.1%

US Market

Return vs Industry: CPA exceeded the US Airlines industry which returned 3.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CPA matched the US Market which returned 20.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CPAIndustryMarket
7 Day3.9%1.8%1.5%
30 Day6.3%-2.4%1.4%
90 Day0.9%-1.7%8.7%
1 Year23.8%20.5%5.1%3.5%22.7%20.1%
3 Year15.7%6.4%6.4%2.2%50.1%40.5%
5 Year11.5%-5.3%26.1%19.0%73.1%54.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Copa Holdings's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Copa Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

44.8%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CPA ($110.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($199.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CPA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CPA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (18.9x) compared to the Airlines industry average (8.8x).

PE vs Market: CPA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (18.9x) compared to the US market (18.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CPA is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.8x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CPA is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.4x) compared to the US Airlines industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Copa Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

22.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CPA's forecast earnings growth (22.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: CPA's earnings (22.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CPA's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CPA's revenue (6.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CPA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Copa Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

5.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CPA has a large one-off loss of $89.3M impacting its December 31 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: CPA's current net profit margins (9.1%) are higher than last year (3.3%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CPA's earnings have grown by 5.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CPA's earnings growth over the past year (180.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (5.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CPA earnings growth over the past year (180.4%) exceeded the Airlines industry 41.3%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: CPA's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Copa Holdings's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CPA's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: CPA's short term assets ($1.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CPA's debt to equity ratio (54.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CPA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 53.9% to 54.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CPA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (74.2%).

Interest Coverage: CPA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13.2x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: CPA has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: CPA's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.2x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Copa Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.91%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase Copa Holdings before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.9%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.1%forecastin3Years3.2%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: CPA's dividend (2.91%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.44%).

High Dividend: CPA's dividend (2.91%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.69%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CPA's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CPA's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (44.7%), CPA's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: CPA's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (37% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Pedro Heilbron (61yo)

32.1yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Pedro Heilbron has been Chairman of the Chief Executive Board at Star Alliance Services GmbH since December 2016. Mr. Heilbron serves as the Chief Executive Officer at Compañía Panameña de Aviación, S. ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Pedro Heilbron
CEO & Director32.1yrsno datano data
Jose Montero
Chief Financial Officer6.9yrsno datano data
Daniel Paul Gunn
Senior Vice-President of Operations11yrsno datano data
Julio Toro
Vice-President of Technology4.3yrsno datano data
Raul Pascual
Director of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Christophe Didier
Vice-President of Sales3.4yrsno datano data
Vidalia F. de Casado
Vice-President of Human Resources4.1yrsno datano data
Dennis Cary
Senior Vice President of Commercial & Planning4.8yrsno datano data
Eduardo Lombana
Chief Executive Officer of Copa Colombia8yrsno datano data

5.9yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: CPA's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Pedro Heilbron
CEO & Director32.1yrsno datano data
Stanley Motta
Chairman0yrsno datano data
Jose Castaneda Velez
Independent Director0yrsno datano data
Ricardo Alberto Arias
Director22.1yrsno datano data
Jaime Arias
Director22.1yrsno datano data
Andrew Levy
Independent Director4.1yrsno datano data
Josh Connor
Independent Director4.1yrsno datano data
John Gebo
Director5yrsno datano data
Alvaro Heilbron
Director8.1yrsno datano data
Carlos Alberto Motta Fidanque
Director6.1yrsno datano data

6.1yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CPA's board of directors are considered experienced (6.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Copa Holdings, S.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Copa Holdings, S.A.
  • Ticker: CPA
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1947
  • Industry: Airlines
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: US$4.681b
  • Shares outstanding: 42.55m
  • Website: https://copa.gcs-web.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Copa Holdings, S.A.
  • Boulevard Costa del Este
  • Avenida Principal y Avenida de la Rotonda, Urbanizacion Cost
  • Panama City
  • Panama

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
CPANYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesClass A Common StockUSUSDDec 2005
C2HDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesClass A Common StockDEEURDec 2005
CPA NBMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesClass A Common StockMXMXNDec 2005

Biography

Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services. The company offers flights to 81 destinations in 33 countries in North, Central, and South America, as well as the Caribbean. As of April 24, 2019, it operated a fleet of 105 aircraft comprising 6 Boeing 737 MAX9s, 82 Boeing 737NGs, and 17 Embraer-190s aircraft. Copa Holdings, S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/17 00:02
End of Day Share Price2020/02/14 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.