We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Copa Holdings Valuation

Is CPA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CPA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CPA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.8x
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CPA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CPA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average36.6x
ALK Alaska Air Group
108.8x54.5%US$5.9b
SKYW SkyWest
7.2x-15.4%US$898.1m
LUV Southwest Airlines
27.7x25.5%US$22.9b
HRBR Harbor Diversified
2.6xn/aUS$110.0m
CPA Copa Holdings
9x14.6%US$3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CPA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (36.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CPA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a42.5%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CPA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (11.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CPA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CPA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9x
Fair PE Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CPA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CPA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CPA ($86.45) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($50.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CPA is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CPA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$86.45
US$110.25
+27.5%
17.1%US$150.00US$80.00n/a16
Nov ’23US$76.22
US$104.38
+36.9%
14.7%US$132.00US$80.00n/a16
Oct ’23US$67.01
US$101.19
+51.0%
14.8%US$132.00US$79.00n/a16
Sep ’23US$71.15
US$99.93
+40.5%
14.6%US$132.00US$79.00n/a15
Aug ’23US$67.86
US$94.40
+39.1%
16.7%US$132.00US$70.00n/a15
Jul ’23US$64.62
US$97.67
+51.1%
16.4%US$132.00US$70.00n/a15
Jun ’23US$68.58
US$101.73
+48.3%
13.2%US$132.00US$70.00n/a15
May ’23US$75.37
US$105.07
+39.4%
13.0%US$132.00US$88.00n/a15
Apr ’23US$82.80
US$105.40
+27.3%
13.1%US$132.00US$88.00n/a15
Mar ’23US$81.14
US$106.50
+31.3%
13.2%US$136.00US$88.00n/a16
Feb ’23US$84.45
US$102.24
+21.1%
15.4%US$132.00US$74.00n/a17
Jan ’23US$82.66
US$101.76
+23.1%
15.9%US$132.00US$74.00n/a17
Dec ’22US$69.25
US$101.06
+45.9%
15.4%US$132.00US$74.00n/a17
Nov ’22US$74.85
US$94.35
+26.1%
11.4%US$109.00US$72.00US$76.2217
Oct ’22US$85.94
US$93.59
+8.9%
11.1%US$109.00US$72.00US$67.0117
Sep ’22US$76.68
US$90.28
+17.7%
13.2%US$105.00US$60.00US$71.1518
Aug ’22US$70.91
US$88.94
+25.4%
13.3%US$105.00US$60.00US$67.8618
Jul ’22US$75.64
US$90.32
+19.4%
13.0%US$105.00US$60.00US$64.6219
Jun ’22US$84.45
US$89.89
+6.4%
13.2%US$105.00US$60.00US$68.5818
May ’22US$86.50
US$87.22
+0.8%
14.7%US$106.00US$60.00US$75.3718
Apr ’22US$80.92
US$86.29
+6.6%
12.6%US$106.00US$65.00US$82.8017
Mar ’22US$93.53
US$85.11
-9.0%
14.6%US$106.00US$60.00US$81.1418
Feb ’22US$77.75
US$86.58
+11.4%
20.6%US$140.00US$60.00US$84.4519
Jan ’22US$77.23
US$82.21
+6.4%
23.7%US$140.00US$54.00US$82.6619
Dec ’21US$80.88
US$81.58
+0.9%
29.3%US$144.00US$54.00US$69.2519
Nov ’21US$49.28
US$69.00
+40.0%
38.6%US$144.00US$47.00US$74.8519

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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